Latvia
Latvia transitioned to democracy in 1991, when the country gained independence from the Soviet Union (USSR). It performs in the high range across all Global State of Democracy (GSoD) categories of democracy. It is amongst the world’s top 25 per cent with regard to all factors, except for Inclusive Suffrage, Electoral Participation, Effective Parliament and Civic Engagement. Over the past five years, it has shown notable improvements in Rule of Law and Predictable Enforcement, with no significant declines. Latvia is a high-income country, although challenges to its economy and society emerge from de-population due to emigration, political corruption and above average levels of inequality.
Akin to the other Baltic states, the current political landscape in Latvia is shaped by the country’s past under the Soviet Union. For instance, the Latvian language has become a marker in the drive to reinforce a national identity, creating dividing lines with the Russian-speaking populace, many of whom settled in Latvia during the time of the USSR and today constitute approximately one quarter of Latvia’s population. Approximately 10 per cent of the population has non-citizen status, a legacy of the USSR, and is excluded from the right to vote, despite routes to naturalization and recent legislation which stipulates that no child born on the territory of Latvia is a non-citizen as of 2020. Despite signs of change, the geopolitical consequences of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine have continued to feed this legacy of historical memory in Latvia. Simultaneously, while Latvia joined both the European Union and North Atlantic Treaty Organization in 2004, and the eurozone in 2014, support for regional integration is not necessarily deep-seated. Although Euroscepticism among politicians and political parties is rare, current issues in Latvian politics – such as emigration and the urban-rural divide – are often tied to European integration in the minds of the public. Relatedly, trust in government is notably low, as is voter turnout – which has stood between 55 and 59 per cent over the last decade. Low trust is exacerbated by cases of corruption in public procurement deals, including the ‘Digitalgate’ scandal which implicated several high-profile public officials. In addition, Latvia’s banking sector has been buffeted by a string of money laundering scandals, which led to the closure of one of Latvia’s biggest banks, ABLV, in 2018. Latvia also struggles with high inequality, where poverty is geographically concentrated in rural areas in the East, and is closely tied to poor social inclusion, including reduced access to good quality housing, health services, and education.
GSoD Indices data show that Latvia has consistently been a high performer on gender equality, leading Central and Eastern European countries. Nevertheless, sexual violence, unequal distribution of unpaid care, gaps in wages and access to education and decision-making – political, economic and social – are among the challenges that persist in attaining gender equality.
Looking ahead, it will be important to watch Absence of Corruption, which has continuously fluctuated over time in Latvia. Whether sincere anti-corruption reform efforts to address the prosecution of corruption and improve political and business integrity are put and held in place remains to be seen.
Monthly Event Reports
August 2023 | Prime Minister announces his resignation
On 14 August, Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš unexpectedly announced his resignation after negotiations collapsed with his coalition government. The Prime Minister had pushed to expand the existing three-party ruling coalition to include the Union of Greens and Farmers and the Progressive party, in order to “regain dynamism in the work of the government.” The move was resisted by Kariņš’s coalition partners, the populist right-wing National Alliance and the United List. On 11 August, the Prime Minister collapsed the existing coalition after both partners rejected his proposal for a cabinet reshuffle. Kariņš had initially signalled that he would continue in his post before he suddenly notified President Edgars Rinkēvičs of his intention to resign along with his cabinet, and invited his centre-right New Unity party to nominate a new candidate for Prime Minister. The candidate will face a parliamentary vote of confidence and will be tasked with forming a government. Kariņš had served as Prime Minister since 2019.
June 2023 | Parliament approves amendments legalising pushbacks of irregular migrants
The Saeima adopted legal amendments authorising border guards to prevent irregular entries at the border, outside of the locations and procedures required for legal entry, including by use of force. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) expressed concerns that the amendments effectively authorise pushbacks of irregular migrants, and therefore interfere with the right to seek asylum. UNHCR further noted an absence of procedures for processing asylum-seekers arriving irregularly, which may prevent effective individualised assessments of the asylum-seeker’s circumstances, rights and needs. The amendments also give the Cabinet of Ministers the authority to trigger a “reinforced regime”, which allows for the application of special rules to the movement of people at the border in case of large numbers of irregular crossings, including suspending certain border crossing points.
May 2023 | Saeima elects Edgars Rinkēvičs as President
The Saeima elected Edgars Rinkēvičs, the candidate put forward by the centre-right New Unity, as President of Latvia. Rinkēvičs was elected in the third round of voting, with 52 votes in favour, and 35 against (surpassing the 51 votes required for a simple majority). Rinkēvičs becomes Latvia’s first openly gay President and was the first prominent political figure in Latvia to come out as gay in 2014. He previously served as Minister of Foreign Affairs and had pushed for Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO. The incumbent, President Egils Levits, who was nominated by National Alliance, ultimately decided not to seek a second term and withdrew from the race. It is the second presidential election in which an open ballot system was used, following constitutional reforms passed in 2019, holding MPs accountable for their vote and improving transparency.
April 2023 | Saeima votes to reinstate mandatory conscription
The Saeima adopted a law requiring male Latvian citizens to be drafted into the State Defence Service (Valsts aizsardzības dienests, VAD) within a year of turning 18, with the first draft beginning service on 1 July 2023. The law passed with 68 votes in favour, and 11 votes against it. The service also accepts volunteers, and men or women between the ages of 18 to 27 are eligible (citizens over this age can serve in the National Guard). The draft for military service will begin with volunteers, and remaining spaces will be filled based on random selection. Mandatory service had been abolished in 2007, a few years after Latvia’s accession to NATO. A communication from the Ministry of Defence emphasises the need for Latvia to strengthen its own national defence forces, and states, “The war in Ukraine highlights the need for massive resources against aggression on this scale.”
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GSoD Indices Data 2013-2022
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Global State of Democracy Indices
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Factors of Democratic Performance Over Time
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