Lebanon
Lebanon exhibits low performance in the Representation, Rights and Rule of Law categories of the Global State of Democracy framework. It performs in the mid-range with regard to Participation. The Lebanese political landscape is marked by corruption, entrenched sectarianism that perpetuates social inequalities, and frequent interference from its neighbors, as well as a long history of war. Since 2019, a combination of factors, including government inaction on reforms and the lack of a fully functioning executive, have plunged the country into one of the worst economic crises in recent history. Consequently, the Lebanese pound has lost 98 per cent of its value, domestic prices have increased by more than 200 per cent, and millions have been pushed into poverty. Over the last five years, GSoD data show that Freedom of Movement and Access to Justice have declined.
Unlike most of its neighbors, Lebanon is marked by its ethno-sectarian diversity; its population includes Shia and Sunni Muslims (each making up roughly 30 per cent of the population), Druze (3 per cent), and Christian (32 per cent) groups. Between 1975 and 1990, a civil war between shifting alliances of Lebanese groups and external actors ravaged the country. This war revolved around several issues, including the Israel-Palestine conflict, Cold War containment, and political Islam – all of which intersected with long-standing domestic disagreements over the division of power, national identity, and social justice. Most importantly, however, is the fact that the north was governed by Christians opposed to the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) while the south was under the rule of pro-PLO Muslims. While Lebanon found an end to the civil war through the 1989 Taif Agreement by adopting power-sharing principles for its key executive and parliamentary positions, it failed to address the underlying conflicts, particularly with regards to religious identity and refugees. This has resulted in endemic political instability.
Since the end of the civil war, Lebanon has struggled with governmental failures, from the lack of an inquiry into the 2020 Beirut port explosion to various economic crises and widespread corruption. These have exacerbated the existing inequities, including the limited electricity supply not being extended to some deprived areas. Women, disadvantaged by one of the world’s widest gender gaps and discriminatory legislation, have also disproportionately been affected by food insecurity and suffer from inequalities in labor market participation. The poor provision of basic public services has led to some healthcare and educational centers affiliated with communal groups, allowing for the consolidation of Hezbollah as the most powerful political actor and the world’s most heavily armed non—state actor. Its involvement in politics has become a key state legitimacy challenge, evident in the repressive response to the massive 2019-2020 protests that emerged from a public exhausted by the linkage between economic meltdown, sectarianism, and corruption, and thus sought constitutional and electoral reforms. Other salient issues have been the straining presence of over 1.5 million refugees, a presidential vacuum, and Hezbollah’s weapons stockpile. In 2022, the Hezbollah-led bloc lost its majority in parliament.
Looking ahead, resolution of the current socioeconomic crisis is paramount. Democratic reversal in Lebanon is dependent on the introduction of broad-reaching economic reforms and access to social protections as starting points for broader democratization.
Monthly Event Reports
February 2024 | Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel intensify
Recent developments have seen a significant escalation in the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, characterized by intensified missile and rocket exchanges and airstrikes. The situation deteriorated in early February when Israeli airstrikes resulted in civilian casualties and injuries to a Hezbollah leader. Hezbollah retaliated with a missile attack on an Israeli base causing military casualties. The conflict further intensified on 26 February, with Israel's airstrikes on Baalbek marking the deepest incursion into Lebanese territory since 7 October, prompting Hezbollah to launch a substantial rocket attack on an Israeli base in the Golan Heights. Additionally, Hamas launched rockets from Lebanon into Israel on 28 February. Israel’s attacks have damaged Lebanon's infrastructure and agriculture and have displaced over 86,000 people. Diplomatic efforts are scant, with Israel's Defence Minister Yoav Gallant stating attacks on Hezbollah will continue.
November 2023 | Surging conflict in southern Lebanon
Throughout November, violence has escalated in Lebanon amid heightened tensions with ongoing clashes between Israel and Hezbollah. The conflict began on 7 October with Hezbollah launching explosive drones and missiles at Israeli positions and Israel responding with airstrikes on several towns and villages in south Lebanon. On 5 November, an Israeli air strike resulted in four civilian deaths, including three children and is being investigated as a potential war crime by Human Rights Watch. Similarly, airstrikes by Hezbollah have reportedly resulted in numerous civilians injured and one casualty. The conflict area appears to be widening, with claims of rocket launches from Hamas within Lebanon towards Israeli cities. The hostilities have caused over 80 fatalities among Hezbollah fighters and at least ten Israeli soldiers, resulting in the displacement of over 46,000 Lebanese residents.
April 2023 | Parliament postpones municipal elections
On 18 April, the Lebanese parliament voted to postpone municipal elections for a second time. Municipal elections are supposed to be held every 6 years and were originally due to take place in May 2022. At that time, they were postponed for 12 months as they coincided with the parliamentary elections. This second postponement entails an extension of the terms of local officials who were elected in 2016 for a maximum of one year (until 31 May 2024). This additional postponement is due to the failure of the fragmented cabinet to approve legislation that would allocate funding for the election. The Lebanese Association for Democratic Elections issued a statement condemning the vote, described as ‘undermining the democratic process and the principles of good governance’ and claims the extension is depriving citizens of the democratic process and the right to elect their representatives.
February 2023 | Investigation into port explosion and economic collapse obstructed
After a 13-month stalemate generated by legal complaints and pressure by political elites, lead investigator Judge Tarek Bitar announced that the inquiry into the deadly Beirut port explosions of 2020 would resume at the end of January 2023. Bitar indicted, among others, eight senior officials, including Lebanon’s Prosecutor General Ghassan Oweidat and former Prime Minister Hassan Diab. The decision to resume the investigation was challenged by Oweidat, who issued charges against Bitar for allegedly ‘exceeding his powers.’ Similarly, targeted politicians filed at least 25 complaints requesting that Bitar and other judges involved in the case be dismissed. Interrogations were suspended from 6 February until these legal complaints have been adjudicated. Similarly, efforts to advance a stalled probe into the banking sector’s corruption and economic mismanagement –which contributed to Lebanon’s 2019 financial system collapse – were obstructed in February by Prosecutor General Oweidat. The lead investigator, Judge Ghada Aoun, charged two senior bankers for money laundering, and Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh for money laundering, illicit enrichment, and embezzlement. Oweidat and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati requested that Aoun halt all investigative work. Oweidat further instructed the security forces not to implement Aoun's judicial decisions.
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