Bolivia
Bolivia exhibits mid-range performance in all categories of the Global State of Democracy framework, with relatively higher-end scores in Participation. Over the past five years, it has maintained steady performance, with no notable advances or declines. Despite gains in GDP per capita and halving extreme poverty levels between 2004 and 2017, Bolivia remains one of the poorest countries in the Americas. The economy depends on the export of gas and minerals, which has left it vulnerable to international shocks and drops in commodity prices, consequently hindering public investment and social development.
Until the early 16th century, Bolivia was an important part of Spain’s colonial empire. After independence in 1825, Bolivia experienced economic crisis and political instability, marked by military ‘coups’ and ‘countercoups’ and the influence of caudillos (local strongmen). The early 20th century brought a commodity boom fueled by tin production, but poverty and inequality remained, leading to the 1952 Revolution, which brought about universal suffrage, a major agrarian reform, nationalization of key industries, and prospects for economic growth and social justice. In 1964, another coup ended the revolutionary government, and instability followed (1964-1982), marked by an alternation between civil and military governments. Despite transitioning to democracy in 1982, historic problems of poverty, social inequality and the marginalization of indigenous and Afro-Bolivian populations remained unresolved.
Bolivia is a polarized country with sociopolitical, regional and ethnic cleavages. Estimates indicate that the majority (70 per cent) self-identifies as Mestizo (mixed White and Amerindian), 20 per cent as Indigenous, five per cent as white, and one per cent as of African descent. The indigenous population, the majority of whom are Quechua and Aymara, has faced discrimination. When Evo Morales took office as the first indigenous president of Bolivia in 2006, he facilitated structural reforms that aimed at achieving racial equality, including a new constitution in 2009 that created a ‘plurinational state’, recognizing the country’s diversity and its 36 different indigenous peoples. Still, some of Bolivia’s indigenous peoples continue to be marginalized and particularly impacted by the exploitation of natural and mineral resources in the regions in which they live.
The Morales government prioritized constitutional reforms to promote equitable social policies and indigenous rights. However, it also deepened state control of the economy (including the nationalization of energy and communications companies) and concentrated power in the executive, undermining checks on presidential power. After serious irregularities during the 2019 presidential elections, Morales resigned and left the country. A period of crisis followed, marked by protests for and against the government, leaving dozens killed and hundreds wounded. Despite a credible 2020 election, criminal proceedings against opposition leaders and election officials, and suppressive measures against journalists and the media continue.
Bolivia has made important progress in women’s participation, with the 2009 Constitution establishing equality between women and men, laws on violence against women and one of the highest rates of female representation in parliament globally. However, systemic issues, such as the unequal distribution of resources and economic participation, along with gender-based violence and impunity for crimes against women, continue to exist.
The government’s anti-democratic practices, along with a climate of polarization are to be watched in the coming years. Polarization between MAS (Evo Morales’ left wing party) and the fragmented opposition has increasingly featured in society, and while corruption is widespread even in higher echelons of government, mechanisms to hold these corrupt elites accountable are limited. As such, Rights, Representation, and Rule of Law should be closely monitored.
Monthly Event Reports
January 2024 | Protesters demand the resignation of Constitutional Court judges and the convening of judicial elections
Supporters of former President Evo Morales blocked roads in different regions, including a major highway, demanding the resignation of Constitutional Court judges. They allege that the Court’s recent ruling, which disqualified Morales from running in the 2025 elections, was a judicial ‘coup’. Protesters also allege that the ruling was intended to pave the way for incumbent Luis Arce to run for re-election as the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) candidate, in exchange for the Executive’s support for the extension of judicial terms. The ruling directly contradicts a prior 2017 judgment of the same Constitutional Court (albeit with different members). Protesters further demanded that judicial elections, which have been delayed since last year, be convened. Pressure from the economic losses generated by the roadblocks influenced members of the National Assembly to come to an agreement in early February, deciding that judicial elections should be convened for June.
November 2023 | Electoral Tribunal annuls congress of MAS party
Bolivia’s Electoral Tribunal (Tribunal Supremo Electoral, TSE) annulled the Movimiento Al Socialismo (MAS) party’s October Congress. The party’s leadership was elected there and Evo Morales was chosen to be the candidate for the 2025 presidential election. The TSE ordered MAS to hold a new Congress. The Congress revealed deep divisions within the party, as the country’s current President, Luis Arce, was expelled from MAS. Former President Morales’s criticism of Arce’s government, including accusations of corruption and ineffective policies against crime, have fuelled discord within the ruling party. Disagreements over who should run for MAS in the 2025 presidential election add to the division. The inability of MAS congressmembers to act in a unified way has contributed to a stalemate in the National Assembly on a number of issues, including the delay of judicial elections originally scheduled for October. Morales and his supporters have accused the TSE of being partial to Arce and have called for retraction of the decision.
September 2023 | Evo Morales will run again for president
Former President, Evo Morales, confirmed his intention to run for the presidency in 2025, as candidate of the ruling Movimiento Al Socialismo (MAS) party. Internal divisions have exacerbated as Morales accuses current President, Luis Arce (also of the MAS party and former minister under Morales), of orchestrating political attacks against him. Supporters of both politicians engaged in physical violence in August, during a congress of peasants’ union, and the party’s internal division has contributed to a standstill in Congress over issues such as judicial elections. On 4 October, during MAS’s congress, the candidacy of Morales was confirmed, while President Luis Arce was expelled from the party.
August 2023 | Congress faces impasse in judicial elections
An impasse in Congress has prevented the call for judicial elections in Bolivia, which means that incumbent officials serving on the Supreme Tribunal, Constitutional Tribunal, Agro-environmental Tribunal and Magistrate’s Council will remain in place for now. Without the two thirds majority needed and amid internal divisions within the MAS party, movement remains stalled. Critics of the 2017 amendment, which brought in the use of elections for judicial posts, consider it has not contributed to improving the legitimacy of the judicial branch, as low voter-turnout (as seen in previous elections) and corruption in the judiciary prevail.
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