Chad
Ruled by an authoritarian regime, Chad is one of the poorest countries in the world and relies heavily on oil exports for its revenue. The country is an important counter-terrorism actor. Domestically, it has fought Boko Haram insurgents. Regionally, Chad has contributed troops – not without controversy – to the G-5 Sahel Joint Force, France’s former Operation Barkhane, and the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali. It entered into a recession in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, compounding long-standing debt management difficulties.
Chad was part of the Kanem-Bornu Empire until France imposed colonial rule between 1900 and 1960. France deployed soldiers to administer the Chadian colony, which was governed through violent force and which stoked inter-communal divisions. The country’s post-independence history has been coloured by protracted conflict, including violent contest for political power, enduring ethnic and religious tension, poverty, and spill-over conflict from its neighbouring countries. Political and insurrectionist dissent has been driven by the competition over oil revenues, corruption, ethnic politics, and state oppression. Between 2017 and 2020, Chad’s performance in the GSoDI’s attributes (Representative Government, Fundamental Rights, Checks on Government and Impartial Administration) had been low performing. However, Chad’s performance in several of the GSoD’s indices’ attributes declined precipitously in 2021 when a military council military coup headed by General Mahamat Idriss Déby took over.
Chad faces multiple challenges to democratization. There are strong reasons to doubt that the current military regime will transition to democratic, civilian leadership. Major insurgent groups contest a peace agreement forged between Chad’s government and 30 rebel and opposition groups. Additionally, unresolved inter-ethnic conflict, fuelled by former President Idriss Déby Itno’s preferential treatment of his own Zaghawa ethnic group, continues to be a problem. Climate change-related natural disasters have worsened resource-driven intercommunal conflict. The proliferation of arms throughout Chad and its insecure borders, some of which are sites of violent conflict in other countries, present a security challenge and contribute to local-level conflict. Chad’s northern, eastern, and southern borders are high-risk areas. Domestic and international conflict, especially in Sudan, Central African Republic, and Cameroon, have resulted in a large number of internally displaced persons and a refugee population. Furthermore, Boko Haram has established bases throughout the Lake Chad Basin area, resulting in violence between Chadian forces and the insurgents.
Analysis of the GSoDI data suggest several areas to watch going forward. One is the likelihood of repressive responses to demands for democratic governance, which may further worsen Chad’s Representative Government and Participatory Engagement performance. More and stronger repressive measures curtailing protest and challenges to the government could damage Chad’s performance with regard to Civil Society Participation. Chad is vulnerable to conflict developments in its neighbouring countries. Therefore, the worsening of the Boko Haram conflict in Nigeria, clashes in Cameroon, and unrest in Sudan’s Darfur region would see increased refugees in Chad, which could contribute to worsening intercommunal conflicts over limited resources.
Monthly Updates
December 2022
Among the hundreds of people arrested after the protests against the delay in transitioning to civilian rule on 20 October, 401 were put on trial at the remote Koro Toro prison at the end of November. Responding to violations of the procedural rights of the accused, the Chadian Bar Association went on strike, and the accused were without legal representation during the trial. Similarly, Amnesty International criticised the Chadian authorities for violating the criminal procedural rights of the accused protestors, noting Chad’s commitments under the African Charter of Human and Peoples’ Rights. At the end of the trial, 262 people were sentenced to prison terms of two or three years, while another 80 were given suspended sentences.
November 2022
The violent repression of protests on 20 October continues to have relevance for democracy and human rights in Chad. The government officially recognizes that fifty people were killed, but the discovery of bodies dumped in the bush in the days since have led to questions about the full toll. The government also announced that 600 people have been arrested since the demonstration, which the government calls an “insurrection.” 401 of those people faced legal proceedings at the end of November in a mass trial without defence lawyers at Koro Toro prison, deep in the desert. However, the Chadian government has also agreed to allow an international fact-finding mission with representation from the Economic Community of Central African States, African Union, and United Nations, to investigate matters of concern relating to the 20 October protests.
October 2022
At the beginning of October, a national dialogue reconciliation forum convened by the military junta decided that the transition to civilian rule should be extended by two years (it had already been 18 months since the unconstitutional change of government), and that the junta leader, Mahamat Idriss Déby, should be eligible to run for election as president. The prime minister and government resigned days later and were replaced. On 20 October – the date that the military junta had originally promised to hand over power to a civilian administration, large numbers of demonstrators gathered in several cities, including the capital city N’Djamena. State security (including the police and army) fired on the demonstrators, killing a large number of people (perhaps more than 80). They also beat many others, and arrested hundreds of people. A government spokesperson also claimed that 15 security service personnel had been killed in the violence.
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GSoD Indices Data 2012-2021
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