Chad
Chad demonstrates low levels of performance across all four categories in the Global State of Democracy’s (GSoD) framework. Due to a coup in 2021, the country’s Representation score is 0 in 2022. Over the last five years, Chad has experienced declines in all factors of Representation and in Access to Justice and Judicial Independence. Chad is one of the poorest countries in the world and relies heavily on oil exports for its revenue. The country is an important counter-terrorism actor. Domestically, it has fought Boko Haram insurgents. Regionally, Chad has contributed troops – not without controversy – to the G-5 Sahel Joint Force, France’s former Operation Barkhane, and the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali. It entered into a recession in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, compounding long-standing debt management difficulties.
Chad was part of the Kanem-Bornu Empire until France imposed colonial rule between 1900 and 1960. France deployed soldiers to administer the Chadian colony, which was governed through violent force and which stoked inter-communal divisions. The country’s post-independence history has been coloured by protracted conflict, including violent contest for political power, enduring ethnic and religious tension, poverty, and spill-over conflict from its neighbouring countries. Political and insurrectionist dissent has been driven by the competition over oil revenues, corruption, ethnic politics, and state oppression.
Chad faces multiple challenges to democratization, the foremost of which is uncertainty regarding the current military regime’s intention to transition to democratic, civilian leadership. Major insurgent groups contest a peace agreement forged between Chad’s government and 30 rebel and opposition groups. Additionally, unresolved inter-ethnic conflict, fuelled by former President Déby’s preferential treatment of his own Zaghawa ethnic group, continues to be a problem. Climate change-related natural disasters have worsened resource-driven intercommunal conflict. The proliferation of arms throughout Chad and its insecure borders, some of which are sites of violent conflict in other countries, present a security challenge and contribute to local-level conflict. Chad’s northern, eastern, and southern borders are high-risk areas. Domestic and international conflict, especially in Sudan, Central African Republic, and Cameroon, have resulted in a large number of internally displaced persons and a refugee population. Furthermore, Boko Haram has established bases throughout the Lake Chad Basin area, resulting in violence between Chadian forces and the insurgents.
Chad is among the world’s bottom 25 per cent with regard to performance on Gender Equality. It has among the world’s highest rates of child marriage, and female genital mutilation is a widespread practice. Gender inequality in Chad can be attributed to challenges unique to the Sahel region, including climate change, food insecurity, poverty, political instability, violent extremism, and conflict. The recent creation of the Observatory for the Promotion of Gender Equality and Equity aimed at promoting gender equality in public policies, seen as a positive development, should be monitored.
Analysis of the GSoD Indices data suggest several areas to watch going forward. One is the likelihood of repressive responses to demands for democratic governance, which may impact Representation and Participation. Chad is vulnerable to conflict developments in its neighbouring countries. Therefore, the worsening of the Boko Haram conflict in Nigeria, clashes in Cameroon, and unrest in Sudan’s Darfur region may result in increased refugees, which could contribute to worsening intercommunal conflicts over limited resources.
Monthly Event Reports
February 2024 | Opposition politician killed by security forces
On 28 February, leader of the Socialist Party without Borders (Parti Socialiste Sans Frontières, PSF), Yaya Dillo Djerou died after a series of violent confrontations between his party and security forces. First, on 19 February, the PSF was accused of plotting to assassinate the president of the Supreme Court. A senior official in the PSF, Abakar Torabi, was accused of instigating that plot and was arrested by the internal intelligence services (Agence nationale de sécurité de l’État, ANSE). PSF supporters are alleged to have attacked the ANSE headquarters on 27 February. Finally, on 28 February the security services attacked the PSF headquarters, taking control of the facility after an intense exchange of gunfire. The PSF headquarters were later demolished. The exact circumstances of Dillo’s death are unclear; he may have been mortally wounded in the attack on ANSE on 27 February or killed at the PSF headquarters on 28 February. He was viewed as one of the main challengers to interim president Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno in the elections now scheduled for May.
January 2024 | Opposition politician appointed prime minister
On 1 January, the transitional government announced that opposition politician Succès Masra was appointed Prime Minister. The appointment came after Masra returned from self-imposed exile in November 2023, having reached an agreement with the government of Mahamat Idriss Déby that allowed him to resume political activities in the country. Masra is the leader of the Transformers party (Les Transformateurs) Along with his support for the ratification of the new constitution in December, joining the government has caused concern among other opposition parties, and even within the Transformers party. Mr. Masra has stated that he will continue to push for elections to take place.
December 2023 | New constitution ratified by referendum
Chad completed a key step in its path to civilian government on 17 December when a new constitution was approved by referendum, with 85.9 per cent of those who voted (turnout was 62.9 per cent) supporting ratification. The referendum result was challenged in court by a coalition of opposition parties called the Bloc Fédéral, but the Supreme Court confirmed the official result on 29 December. The new constitution is in most regards very similar to the one that it replaces, maintaining a unitary state with a strong president. The vote follows a national dialogue on the constitution that took place earlier in the year, during which participants were notably split on the structure of the government and many supported a federal arrangement.
November 2023 | Amnesty granted to security forces for actions suppressing protests in October 2022
On 23 November, the military-led government of Chad granted an amnesty to the security forces covering their actions in suppressing protests that took place in October 2022. The government response to those protests resulted in at least 50 deaths (and possibly as many as 300) and the arrests of more than 600 people. The amnesty was approved by the National Transitional Council, an appointed body that is functioning as a legislature. The government suggested that this amnesty was an important step toward national reconciliation. However, it will also significantly impair accountability for the abuses that took place. The Chadian League for Human Rights (Ligue tchadienne des droits de l’Homme, LTDH) warned against enshrining a culture of impunity, and that reconciliation will require respect for the rule of law.
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GSoD Indices Data 2013-2022
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Factors of Democratic Performance Over Time
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