Iran
The Islamic Republic of Iran performs in the low range across all four categories of the Global State of Democracy framework. The country is an Islamic theocracy led by clerics who wield significant power. Over the last five years, Iran has experienced notable declines in multiple factors of Representation and Rights. Economically, Iran is an upper-middle income country, characterized as a major oil and natural gas-producing state with sizable hydrocarbon, agriculture, and service sectors. The country’s economy was sluggish even prior to the pandemic, as several rounds of Western sanctions and turbulence in the price of oil kept economic growth depressed. However, the country ranks moderately well in the Human Development Index, indicating broad economic potential.
Iran’s political culture is dominated by ardent debates between tradition-oriented, conservative hardliners and modernist reformers. Since a 1979 revolution overthrew the then-reigning monarchy and replaced it with an Islamic Republic, divisions over religion, democracy, freedom, rights, and Iran’s place in the world have festered. Iran’s legal system is based on a strict interpretation of Islamic law, one that punishes LGBTQIA+ people with execution and mandates that all women wear the hijab in public. Repeated human rights violations have inspired recurring protests demanding greater rights and freedoms. Members of minority religious groups, particularly the Baha’i faith, face ongoing persecution and discrimination. Iran’s ethnic minorities, which comprise roughly 40 per cent of the population, also face repression. The urban-rural divide is especially strong in Iran, with large cities tending to support political reformers and movements that seek liberalization while less densely populated regions are more conservative. Major divides manifest, too, in the area of foreign policy and Iran has been largely isolated since the 1979 revolution, especially in relation to the West. Iran’s size and strategic location on the Persian Gulf position the country as a Shia Muslim regional power in strategic rivalry with Sunni Muslim leader Saudi Arabia. The countries have used the Sunni-Shia divide to further their ambitions and fueled sectarian violence across the region in struggles for regional dominance. While many continue to support the current anti-West and anti-Israel approach, there also exist significant voices in favor of a rapprochement with the West. Corruption, state domination of the economy, and women’s unemployment continue to be key issues that undermine Iran’s economy and fuel popular discontent.
The election of hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi to the presidency in June 2021 marked a turning point from the more reformist Rouhani era. Raisi’s administration has undertaken a brutal crackdown on protestors, employed inflammatory rhetoric in its public pronouncements, and sought to align itself with other authoritarian powers, most notably Russia and China. Human rights violations, including Internet censorship, torture, and execution, remain rampant in Iran as the government seeks to maintain power amid a legitimacy crisis. In September 2022, large-scale protests broke out over the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody, prompting many women to remove their headscarves in defiance of the government’s restrictions on women’s freedoms, as well as other autocratic norms.
Looking ahead, it will be important to watch how the government handles future protests, which could impact Rights. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s advanced age and health issues point to further uncertainty regarding the country’s future. New sanctions on Iran will likely continue to hinder the country’s already troubled economy.
Monthly Event Reports
March 2024 | Hardliners dominate Iran’s elections
On 1 March, Iran held parliamentary elections for all 290 seats of its Islamic Consultative Assembly, although contests for 45 of these seats will go to a second round in April or May, due to the fact that the winning candidates had failed to secure 20 per cent of the vote. The first round was dominated by members of the conservative, hardliner political faction, who clinched 200 seats, with many candidates from the reformist faction prevented from running. Despite there having been 1,713 female candidates, only 11 were elected in the first round. Voters also selected candidates for 88 seats of Iran’s Assembly of Experts, a deliberative body tasked with appointing the country’s Supreme Leader, and hardliners dominated this poll, too. Voter turnout was 40.64 per cent, the lowest since the foundation of the Islamic Republic in 1979.
January 2024 | Deadliest terrorist attack since the founding of the Republic
On 3 January, the Islamic State (ISIS) carried out a devastating dual bombing at a commemoration ceremony in the city of Kerman, in southeastern Iran. The event was held in honour of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. The attack resulted in nearly 100 deaths and more than 200 injuries, making it the deadliest terrorist attack in Iran since the 1979 revolution. In late January, it was revealed that the U.S. had previously warned Iran of a potential ISIS threat, but it is unclear whether these warnings were heeded. Iranian dissidents have suggested the Iranian regime could be involved in the attack as a way to rally support amidst internal discontent. The situation remains tense, with fears of further violence in the country ahead of the legislative elections due in March.
July 2023 | Iran reinstates morality police to enforce strict hijab regulations
Iran has reinstated the ‘morality police’ following a 10-month withdrawal due to nationwide protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022. This reintroduction is accompanied by the regime's proclaimed "softer" approach towards hijab enforcement, with President Ebrahim Raisi advocating for respectful dialogue. The renewed campaign was announced on 17 July, with a strategy emphasizing persuasion and counselling with women not observing the hijab, rather than punitive measures. The new approach is also marked by the introduction of a law currently being drafted by Iran’s Judiciary committee of the legislature (Majlis). The aim of this legislation is to outline the norms for wearing the hijab and specify penalties for non-compliance. This legislative move indicates a shift towards legal mechanisms for enforcing hijab compliance, rather than relying solely on the morality police. The regime's reinstatement of the morality police and changes to enforce Islamic dress codes are viewed sceptically, seen as a deceptive tactic to intensify repression and curb unrest especially ahead of Amini's death anniversary and rising female protests. Despite government efforts, many women continue to resist hijab enforcement efforts.
May 2023 | Rise in the number of executions and other human rights violations
Iran witnessed a wave of executions throughout May, targeting protesters, individuals accused of blasphemy, and those linked to anti-government activities. The killings have sparked international condemnation and concerns over Iran’s continued capital punishment practices. Executions in Iran have become increasingly common, highlighting the pressing issues surrounding Iran's legal system and its impact on individual rights and freedoms. This trend reflects a broader increase in executions in the region. According to a new report by Amnesty International, Iran, along with other countries in the Middle East and North Africa region, witnessed a significant surge in executions in 2022 compared to previous years. Similarly, the UN reports an average of 10 executions per week in Iran, with over 200 carried out this year, potentially making 2023 the deadliest year since 2015 when 972 executions were recorded.
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GSoD Indices Data 2013-2022
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