Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan exhibits low-range performance in all four categories of the Global State of Democracy framework. It is among the bottom 25 per cent of countries in the world in nine factors, including Free Political Parties and Judicial Independence. Over the last five years, it has experienced a significant decline in Access to Justice. An upper middle income country, the Kazakh economy is heavily reliant on the export of gas, oil, and other hydrocarbon products.
For centuries part of a nomadic empire populated by Turkic tribes, the area that is now Kazakhstan came under Russian Tsarist control in the early 19th century, and large scale Russian immigration and colonization began in earnest in the 1890s. After gaining independence in 1991, the political and economic landscape was long dominated by former President Nursultan Nazarbayev and his extended family and allies as well as by his “economics first, politics later” approach. Nazarbayev’s rule was marked by increasing personalization until he stepped down in 2019 in favor of current President Kasym-Jomart Tokayev. Tokayev has since marginalized Nazarbayev, whose “the father of the nation” swiftly diminished and many of whose allies and relatives have been imprisoned or removed from positions of authority.
Political cleavages in Kazakhstan are mostly centered around financial-industrial groups, and the country’s closed stage-managed political environment means that much of this contestation remains behind the scenes. Ethnic Russians have long been the country’s largest minority, but have declined to 15 per cent of the population from a height of 42 per cent in the 1970s. The ethnic Russians who remain are increasingly bilingual and integrated into the ethnic Kazakh-dominated culture. While it has made more progress on gender equality than its Central Asian neighbors, significant gender gaps in government and in the workplace persist and gender-based violence remains widespread. The country is also highly unequal and plagued by grand corruption, with one 2019 study finding that 50 per cent of the country’s wealth was controlled by only 162 individuals.
Kazakhstan’s kleptocracy-fueled inequality has laid the ground for three mass protest movements triggered by social and economic grievances in 2011, 2016, and 2022. While the 2016 protests ended with an accommodating shift in government land policy, the 2011 and 2022 protests – both of which began in the western oil-producing town of Zhanaozen – were put down with deadly force. In both cases, the government denied any domestic roots for the protests and placed the blame on foreign provocateurs.
Following these events, President Tokayev oversaw a constitutional referendum ostensibly on decentralization and political reforms, but which in practice appear to be more focused on cementing his own power and permanently sidelining the Nazarbayev clan.
Looking ahead, it will be important to watch the degree to which President Tokayev implements top-down democratic reforms, maintains the status quo, or pursues an even stricter authoritarian line. New legal restrictions placed on the media in late 2024 and the high-profile prosecution of an online satirist could indicate further pressure on Freedom of the Media and Freedom of Expression in the next two to three years. It will also be important to watch how the government positions itself with regard to Russia, given the history of close ties. Since the war in Ukraine began, President Tokayev has carefully distanced his regime from Moscow and adopted a more pragmatic balancing position between Kazakhstan’s former colonial master and China.
Last Updated: June 2025
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
March 2026
New constitution adopted in referendum
On 15 March 2026, Kazakhstan adopted a new constitution in a nationwide referendum, the country’s second constitutional referendum since 2022. The new framework replaces the existing bicameral parliament with a unicameral body with proportional representation. It also grants the President unilateral authority to appoint the heads of national law enforcement and national security bodies as well as all members of the Constitutional Court and Central Election Commission. These appointments previously required Senate approval. The President will also be able to rule by decree between sittings of parliament and dissolve parliament should it refuse to approve his nominations. Freedom of speech is more tightly curtailed in a vaguely-worded article that says speech that violates ‘public order’ or undermines national security is not protected. According to official results, the draft was approved by 87.2 per cent of voters with 73.1 per cent turnout, and President Kassym Jomart Tokayev formally signed the new constitution on 17 March.
New wave of arrests of journalists
On 20–21 March 2026, Kazakh journalist Botagöz Omarova was placed under two months of house arrest after being charged under Criminal Code Article 274 (‘knowingly disseminating false information’), allegedly for a post on Telegram saying a company building a presidential stable failed to pay subcontractors. Omarova is the third journalist, along with Amir Kasenov and Gulnara Bazhkenova, arrested and placed into pre-trial house arrest since December 2025. Journalist Aset Matayev was also placed under house arrest in March and awaits trial on ‘hooliganism’ charges related to an altercation when he was assaulted with a crowbar. Journalists and press freedom advocates have criticized the arrests as lacking due process and as political retaliation for critical reporting. In many of the cases, the specific statements or writings that are alleged to be false information have not been publicly disclosed.
Sources: Arasha, Kaztag, Factcheck.kz, Tengrinews, Norwegian Helsinki Committee
December 2025
Draft legislation would restrict online speech
The Ministry of Culture and Information has submitted two draft amendments for Parliament’s consideration that seek to more tightly govern and curtail access to online spaces, arguing ‘the measure is necessary to create a safer information environment.’ The draft legislation would ban anyone under 16 years old from social networks and grant the Ministry the authority to block online platforms. The Ministry would be able to block online platforms that fail to comply with its orders to remove content, do not label online content in line with Kazakhstan’s guidelines, or do not provide information on anonymous accounts with more than five thousand followers. In a statement to local media, the Ministry said that the ban on social media use for under-16s would not apply to messengers such as WhatsApp and Telegram nor to online games such as Minecraft and Roblox.
Sources: Government of Kazakhstan, Fergana News, Tengri News
Law targets LGBTQIA+ community
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a law banning ‘LGBT propaganda’ on 30 December. The bill passed the lower house of parliament on 12 November, and in the intervening time was strongly criticised by international human rights organizations and United Nations experts for marginalizing LGBTQIA+ Kazakhs and violating children’s rights to education, information and health.
Sources: Euronews, Eurasianet, International IDEA
November 2025
Kazakh parliament introduces ’LGBT propaganda’ bill
The lower house of parliament adopted a bill banning ‘LGBT propaganda’ on 12 November, sending it to the upper house for further consideration. The bill would prohibit the ‘dissemination of information containing propaganda of non‑traditional sexual orientation and paedophilia’ and has been strongly criticized by international human rights organizations and United Nations experts as marginalizing LGBTQIA+ Kazakhs and violating children’s rights to education, information and health. The text of the law resembles Russia’s similar ‘LGBT propaganda’ ban, and LGBTQIA+ Kazakhs face similar risks as those in Russia, including police violence and extortion, degrading treatment from society at large and a lack of access to justice.
Sources: Vlast.kz, Human Rights Watch, OHCHR
September 2025
Criminal penalties for ‘bride kidnapping’ strengthened, and forced marriage criminalized
Kazakhstan strengthened the criminal penalty for kidnapping and criminalized forced marriage on 15 September to stamp out the practice of ‘bride kidnapping’. Lawmakers removed language from the criminal code that exempted kidnappers who voluntarily released their victims from criminal liability, which had led to 95 per cent of cases in the last five years closing without penalty. Kidnappers will now face between two and ten years in prison. Instances of forced marriage will now be punished by up to two years in prison, with additional penalties for aggravating circumstances such as the abuse of an official position or the involvement of a minor. While a form of fully consensual ‘bride kidnapping’ has long been practiced in parts of Kazakhstan as a form of marriage, the law is intended to target more modern non-consensual forms, when kidnappers exploit the forms of the tradition and conservative mores to force a woman or girl into marriage.
Sources: Bizim Yol, Kazakhstan Police Media Portal, Soz Media, Wilson Center
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