Myanmar
Myanmar performs in the low-range across all categories of the Global State of Democracy framework and is among the bottom 25 per cent of countries with regard to all but two factors (Civic Engagement and Gender Equality). Over the last five years, it has suffered notable declines across the large majority of GSoD indicators. Most of these declines have occurred since February 2021, when the military overthrew the civilian-led government, ending a decade of democratization that began in 2011 and which was marked by power-sharing between the military and elected leaders. Myanmar’s main industries include agriculture, mining, and tourism. Although categorized as an emerging economy, the recent multiple crises have led to significant reversals on the economic front.
The 2021 coup led to a surge in violence and human rights violations, with the military carrying out mass killings, torture, sexual violence, and arbitrary arrests. The coup and surge of COVID-19 cases in 2021 forced the country into an economic crisis, with an estimated 25 million people (almost half the population) living in poverty by the end of 2021.
In response to the coup, a coalition of pro-democracy actors formed a civil disobedience movement (CDM)1 and interim democratic governance institutions which have prevented the military from consolidating power. Democratic representatives, elected in November 2020, have formed an interim parliament and national unity institutions together with a platform of stakeholders including Ethnic Revolutionary Organisations (EROs), political parties and civil society organisations. Together they strive to establish a federal democracy union. While providing services to the population and collecting revenues, the interim institutions have led a broad consultative process, culminating in a 2022 People’s Assembly, which defined a political roadmap for democratic reform and a Transitional Constitution.2 The interim institutions seek official recognition as Myanmar’s legitimate government and are represented at the United Nations.
Myanmar is a diverse country, made up of the ethnic Bamar group (approximately 66 per cent of the population) and several ethnic minority nationalities (30-40 per cent of the population). The Bamar have traditionally dominated the central government, and minority groups have longstanding, unresolved grievances around the right to self-governance, limited resource sharing, social discrimination, and suppression of minority languages and cultures.3 This has led to an open armed conflict between several EAOs struggling for more autonomy and self-determination, and the military, whose leaders have openly instrumentalized Bamar ethno-nationalism, spanning over six decades. Among the most oppressed are the Rohingya, who were stripped of their citizenship, and subject to ethnic cleansing, with the United Nations concluding that there are grounds for warrants of criminal investigation and prosecution against military generals for genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes since 2011. Despite international calls for investigation, these crimes remain unaddressed.
Women’s access to rights and opportunities have long been hampered by discriminatory norms. While the 2021 coup created some momentum for change, with the interim institutions placing inclusion, diversity and equality (between gender, ethnicity, religion, and age groups) at the center of processes, structures and policies, the prolonged military rule continues to threaten the state of gender equality.
Looking ahead, the resolution of conflict is of utmost importance. The number of defectors is on the rise, contributing to disintegration within the military, and the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), NUG and local administrators are expanding their areas of control. Furthermore, the interim institutions are prioritizing human rights, equality, self-determination, and protection of minority rights, pledging to address the Rohingya’s right to citizenship and crimes committed in Myanmar through the International Criminal Court.
Monthly Event Reports
March 2024 | Junta begins military conscription
Myanmar’s military junta began conscripting men and women into the armed forces in March 2024 under the never-before-used 2010 People’s Military Service Law. Junta officials had announced in February that the process would begin in April, but various media reported the process began across the country in March. The junta has turned to conscription in the face of increasing military setbacks against armed resistance groups as well as defections and desertions. Media reports say conscription aged people are fleeing the country and that resistance has led to the deaths of some officials and others resigning rather that facing the risks of enforcing the law.
January 2024 | Partial ceasefire agreed
Myanmar’s military junta and the Brotherhood Alliance, an alliance of armed groups operating in the north of the country agreed to a ceasefire after two days of China-mediated talks on 10-11 January. The International Crisis Group described the ceasefire, which was joined by all armed groups, as “tenuous” after a previous China-brokered ceasefire in December collapsed after one week. The junta reportedly continued to lose ground in Rakhine, Kachin and Kayah states to armed groups not party to the ceasefire. On 31 January, the junta extended the state of emergency that has been in place since its 2021 coup for another six months.
November 2023 | Fighting worsens as military junta loses ground
The president of Myanmar’s military junta Myint Swe said the country was at risk of breaking up as the military government struggled against a major offensive from various armed ethnic insurgent groups and pro-democracy forces. Over 500,000 people were displaced as of 5 December from the fighting that began in late October, and at least several hundred civilians have been killed. The junta had reportedly lost control of several towns along the Chinese border, and the International Crisis Group reported the military junta was at risk of being overextended and could “double down on brutal efforts” such as scorched-earth tactics and indiscriminate bombing campaigns.
October 2023 | Major anti-junta military offensive underway
A coalition of ethnic rebel groups and anti-coup forces launched a coordinated armed offensive against Myanmar’s military junta in the country’s northern Shan state on 27 October. The attack is the most serious military challenge to the junta since it overthrew Myanmar’s democratically elected government in a coup in 2021. Tens of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, which comes in the wake of two years of violence from the military junta, and a 300 percent increase in junta airstrikes in some regions in recent months, according to Human Rights Watch.
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GSoD Indices Data 2013-2022
Basic Information
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Factors of Democratic Performance Over Time
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