Myanmar has a long history of armed conflict in its peripheral regions, partly a result of its significant ethno-linguistic diversity (135 ethnic groups) and unsuccessful attempts by the military to impose a Buddhist-Bamar centric version of national identity. The Bamar group accounts for about 68 per cent of the population and has dominated the central government since independence from British rule in 1948, creating longstanding grievances among minority groups around the right to self-governance, limited resource sharing, social discrimination, and suppression of minority languages and cultures. Geopolitical rivalries further fueled the longstanding armed conflict between ethnic armed organizations struggling for more autonomy and self-determination, and the military, which instrumentalized Bamar ethno-nationalism during decades of arbitrary military rule. The Muslim Rohingya in Rakhine State have faced institutionalized discrimination including through an exclusionary citizenship law and have been subject to ethnic cleansing, as well as alleged genocide and crimes against humanity in 2016/17.

The 2021 coup was rejected by the people of Myanmar. The military’s brutal attempt to enforce its illegitimate claim to rule has led to unprecedented, multiple levels of crises nationwide, with the junta carrying out arbitrary arrests, torture, extrajudicial killings and sexual violence, and targeting elected representatives and pro-democracy actors. A large and coordinated resistance movement has prevented the junta from consolidating power. National unity institutions – including the National Unity Government (NUG) – have made some progress in the political roadmap towards building a federal democratic union, and resistance groups have gained further momentum through coordinated attacks and control of more than half of Myanmar’s territory. The NUG struggles to exert state authority due to lack of control over state resources and faced with the emerging challenge of increased fragmentation. The post-coup civil war has led to tens of thousands of people being killed and more than three million people displaced; almost half of the population live in poverty. In terms of gender equality, although the gendered impacts of the coup have been profound, the coup created some momentum for change, with women at the forefront of the resistance and national unity institutions placing inclusion, diversity and equality at the center of processes, structures and policies.

Looking ahead, the junta will struggle to prevail despite its pursuit of ‘elections’ in 2025 and further intensification of attacks against civilians. It will be important to watch how the national unity institutions and ethnic armed groups are able to counteract the junta through strengthened coordination and avoid fragmentation while advancing the political roadmap, including the process of developing a transitional constitution. Increased political coordination (and not merely military cooperation) between the unity institutions and ethnic armed groups, presents both challenges and opportunities, particularly from the angle of democratic legitimacy. Finally, accountability for violations of international law, including against the Rohingya, will remain central to resolving the crisis.

Last updated: July 2024