Ecuador
Ecuador is a mid-performing democracy. It is a middle-income country, with an economy highly dependent on petroleum and thus vulnerable to international economic crashes. In 2000 the country adopted the United States dollar as its national currency in order to control hyperinflation, which led to a loss of control over monetary policy. Although the measure stabilized the economy as inflation disappeared, the cost of living increased and a significant percentage of the population today lives below the poverty line. Economic problems have had social consequences and led to political instability. Ecuador has experienced multiple failed and successful coups d'état, often with the involvement of the armed forces, who either ruled the country directly or supported dictatorships throughout the 1960s and 1970s, and more recently were involved in coup attempts in 2000 and 2010. High party fragmentation and volatility in voter allegiance from election to election have also brought about political instability. The president can seldom count on a legislative majority for support, and between 1997 and 2007 the country had ten presidents. Between 1996 and 2021 only two democratically elected Presidents - Rafael Correa and Lenín Moreno – finished their terms. Another issue of concern is the increase of corruption, drug trafficking and criminal violence, which has shown weaknesses in important institutions such as judicial bodies and the police.
While tentative, there has been a recent period of stability, which is reflected in the improvement of three Global State of Democracy Indices (GSoDI) indicators since 2020: Representative Government (despite the sub-attribute Free Political Parties decreasing since 2019), Fundamental Rights and Impartial Administration. In turn, Checks on Government has declined, largely affected by the decrease in Effective Parliament and Media Integrity.
The population of Ecuador is diverse and multicultured: over two-thirds of the population is mestiza (mixed White and Amerindian), 7.4 per cent identify as Montubio, 7.0 per cent Amerindian, 6.1 per cent White, 4.3 per cent Afroecuadorian, 1.9 per cent Mulatto, and 1.0 per cent Black. Additionally, Ecuador has become one of the region’s main recipients of refugees, especially from Colombia and Venezuela. Still, this “mestizaje” is the result of a historical process of acculturation of the Indigenous population, who would rather adopt a mestizo identity than suffer economic and social discrimination. It represents a racial divide in Ecuadorian society; a surface level mestizo identity belies the exclusion of Afroecuadorians as well as the portion of Indigenous Peoples who refuse to be accultured. Income inequality is also a cause for social divide in Ecuador. In the 2000s and 2010s there was a shift away from market sources of income and towards government sources, as the government used revenue from the petroleum boom to combat inequality. While inequality indeed came down as a result, this shift soon became unsustainable as the petroleum boom ended. Since, income inequality has again been on the rise. As a result, protests have broken out around the country in response to unpopular austerity measures, which have been met with disproportionate violence by the government.
In the years to come, the main democratic attribute to watch is Checks on Government - specifically the sub-attributes of Effective Parliament and Media Integrity. Effective Parliament in particular declined between 2005 and 2016, and along with Judicial Independence, improved between 2016 and 2020 in the period after Rafael Correa left power. Since, it has started to again decline. An improvement in Checks on Government could translate into a diminished chance of political instability and raise the likelihood of a democratically elected president finishing their term.
Monthly Updates
October 2022
Violence in prisons has left 29 persons deprived of their liberty dead and dozens injured, in only three days. The UN’s Subcommittee for the Prevention of Torture has expressed concern over what it deems is a crisis in the penitentiary system, where self-government has fostered an environment prone to multiple human rights violations. Since 2021, seven mass killings in different prisons have taken place in Ecuador. While the government argues that violence between gangs in prison has been a main contributing factor to this, lack of effective government policy to address this issue has been widely criticized. A state of emergency decreed in August has been extended in several regions until October. On 1 November, a curfew was established in the Guayas and Esmeralda regions, in response to a new wave of violence linked to the transfer of prisoners.
September 2022
Women’s protests against gender-based violence took place in the aftermath of the femicide of lawyer Maria Belen Bernal, whose police officer husband is currently the main suspect. So far in 2022, 206 women have been victims of femicide in Ecuador. In the aftermath of such femicide, and because it is believed that the alleged perpetrator fled justice due to negligence within the police, the Interior Minister was replaced and high-ranking members of the police have been asked to resign.
August 2022
From 14 August President Guillermo Lasso declared a State of Emergency in Guayaquil, due to a wave of violence attributed to organized crime. That day, an explosion killed five people, injuring at least 17 more. The government has condemned this action as a ‘declaration of war’ by gangs and organized crime that have intensified violent activities. Temporary suspension of rights through the State of Emergency would enable authorities to carry out searches and disperse reunions.
Explore past monthly updates
GSoD Indices Data 2012-2021
Government
Rights
Government
Administration
Engagement
Basic Information
Human Rights Treaties
State party
Signatory
No action
Early Warning System BETA
Low risk of democratic breakdown (BETA)
Moderate risk of democratic backsliding (BETA)