Tajikistan
Tajikistan exhibits low-range performance across all four categories of the Global State of Democracy framework, falling among the bottom 25 per cent of countries in all factors except for Basic Welfare and Electoral Participation. Over the last five years, Freedom of Expression and Access to Justice have declined significantly. Tajikistan is the poorest of post-Soviet republics and is one of the most remittance-dependant countries in the world. The economy depends mostly on mineral and cotton exports, and the country has a significant black market economy built around its key role as a transit country for Afghan opium and heroin.
President Emomali Rahmon has ruled the country since 1992 and overseen an increasingly personalized and autocratic government. In 2022, one of its intermittent disputes with Kyrgyzstan over border demarcation and access to resources escalated into militarized conflict, with over 100 dead and thousands displaced.
The land that constitutes Tajikistan fell under direct and indirect Russian influence in the 19th century and its modern borders were established in 1929. Tajikistan exited the USSR in the worst socioeconomic situation of any former republic, and immediately entered into a civil war between Russia and Uzbekistan-backed communist and pro-government forces on one side and democratic and Islamist forces on the other. A peace agreement was signed in 1997 after 60,000 to 100,000 were killed, 600,000 internally displaced and 80,000 fled. By the late 1990s, Tajikistan was widely considered a failed state and most actual power was held by various regional warlords. The UN-brokered peace treaty guaranteed the Islamist opposition 30 per cent of government posts, but Rahmon steadily undermined democratic institutions, coopted or minimized competing power centers, and reneged on the treaty’s obligations before finally suppressing and banning the main opposition party, the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan in 2015.
The country is over 80 per cent Tajik, 16 per cent Uzbek and is home to several smaller minorities. United Nations experts have criticized the government for discrimination against the Jughi (Roma) and Pamiri minorities. The latter comprises less than two per cent of the country’s population, but comprise the majority in the country’s large and remote Gorno-Badakhstan Autonomous Region (GBAO), which was a stronghold of the civil war opposition and has never been integrated with the rest of the country, remaining de facto outside central government control. In November 2021, the central government launched an ongoing violent crackdown on the majority-Pamiri region that has resulted in hundreds of secret arrests and trials and dozens of civilian deaths. The crackdown has been internationally condemned, and details are scarce due to government efforts to close off the already isolated region from the outside world.
Gender equality remains a serious concern: 69 per cent of working age women are not employed and gender-based violence is prevalent, often going unreported.
Looking ahead, it will be important to watch whether President Rahmon steps aside for his son, Rustam Emomali, before the scheduled 2027 presidential election. The ongoing militarized attempt to take more direct control over the GBAO and the likelihood of more violence on the Kyrgyz border could further erode Tajikistan’s Rights indicators. Finally, the return of the Taliban to Afghanistan could impact domestic counter-extremism measures domestically, as well as efforts to exploit Western fears of Islamic terrorism to further strengthen the Tajik military and security services.
Last Updated: June 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
March 2025
Tajikistan holds parliamentary elections
Tajikistan held elections for the Assembly of Representatives on 2 March in which the ruling People’s Democratic Party maintained control of the parliament, winning 49 of 63 seats and 52.5 per cent of votes. The Central Commission for Elections and Referendums reported 85.4 per cent turnout, a marginal decrease from 86.4 per cent in the previous election. Data on women’s representation in the new parliament was not yet available as of 7 April. The elections were the first since 1995 without international observers, as the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) cancelled its planned participation on 4 February, citing the failure of Tajik authorities to accredit the observation team. No national or international independent media outlets were accredited.
Sources: The Diplomat, Times of Central Asia, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe
Elections become more stage-managed than usual
Tajikistan’s 2 March parliamentary election was the first held since 1995 without international election observers. The OSCE ODIHR election observation mission withdrew its staff from the country in February after failing to receive accreditation. Independent media were also unable to gain accreditation and cover the election as, contrary to election law, media accreditation processes were not publicly announced and there was no opportunity to apply. Past election observation missions have consistently been highly critical of Tajikistan’s tightly controlled electoral contests and the government’s practice of barring all real opposition from participating. The government provided no public rationale for further restricting an already heavily restricted electoral environment, but the moves could be part of an attempt by 72-year-old President Emomali Rahmon, who has ruled the country since 1992, to close off any space for dissent as he prepares to hand over power to his son, Rustam Emomali.
Sources: The Diplomat, Times of Central Asia, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe
February 2025
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan reach historic border deal
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan finalized a deal demarcating the border between the countries, putting an end to a source of underdevelopment, insecurity, and deadly violence since the two gained independence from the Soviet Union. The two governments had accelerated efforts to demarcate the border after regular armed clashes on the border escalated into an interstate armed conflict in 2022 that killed hundreds and displaced tens of thousands. As part of the deal, both countries agreed to jointly manage power plants and water resources in the region. Conflict over access to these resources, which were shared during the Soviet Union, has been one of the primary drivers of tensions along the long-contested border.
Sources: The Diplomat, Havli, Kloop
April 2023
Judge put on trial for too many acquittals
A former judge from Sughd Province went on trial in Dushanbe on 3 April on a variety of charges tied to his perceived leniency and judicial independence and faces nine years. Rustam Saidahmadzoda has been detained since June 2022, and no further information has come to light from his closed-doors trial. Saidahmadzoda’s decisions to acquit the accused on lack of evidence were noteworthy in Tajikistan, where only a handful of cases out of thousands annually result in acquittals – two in 2020, 11 in 2021, and none in 2022. Corruption is systemic in the Tajik judicial system and anti-corruption prosecutions fairly common, although the opacity of proceedings leaves unclear which judges are being targeted for corruption and which for resisting pressure from the executive.
Sources: Bomdod, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
December 2022
Activists sentenced in secret trials
Respected journalist Ulfathonim Mamadshoeva was sentenced to 21 years in prison on 12 December on charges of attempting to overthrow the government. Mamadshoeva was one of six sentenced to similarly lengthy prison terms in the latest round of closed-door judgements stemming from the May-June unrest in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO). The sentences and the ongoing broader crackdown on GBAO residents have been condemned by international and local human rights organizations and a United Nations special rapporteur.
Sources: EurasiaNet, Human Rights Watch
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