
Nigeria

Nigeria exhibits mid-range performance in three categories of the Global State of Democracy Framework(Representation, Rights, and Participation) but is in the low range with regard to Rule of Law. It is among the top 25 per cent of countries in Civic Engagement and Freedom of the Press, but is among the bottom 25 per cent for several other factors of Rule of Law and Rights, and Electoral Participation. Over the last five years, it has experienced significant declines in Judicial Independence, Access to Justice, and Effective Parliament. A lower-middle income country, Nigeria has the continent’s largest population and the seventh largest globally. Its oil-dependent economy is undergoing its worst crisis in decades, with soaring inflation driving a sharp rise in the cost of living. Intensifying extreme weather, especially in the north, further compounds long-standing development challenges.
Present-day Nigeria was long home to powerful kingdoms, including the Hausa in the north and the Yoruba in the south. It came under British control in the late 19th century and gained independence in 1960. However, colonial legacies continue to shape its political landscape. Contemporary political issues play out along religious, ethnic, and gender lines—divisions reinforced by colonial-era divide-and-rule policies. Nigeria’s history of civilian governance has been marked with intermittent periods of authoritarian military rule, and its 2023 elections were impacted by logistical issues and violence.
Nigeria also faces sectarian threats and organized crime in its central and northwest regions, where gangs lootvillages, kidnap for ransom, and raid cattle. In the oil-rich Niger Delta region, inter- and intra-communal violence continues, driven by competition over oil resources, poor governance, and resistanceto foreign oil companies. Poverty is widespread, particularly in the northeast, contributing to ongoing insurgency. These insecurities, combined with entrenched corruption—including in the security sector—continue to strain the economy.
Nigeria is roughly split between Christians and Muslims, a divide that contributes to political tensions and was a key factor in the Biafran Civil War (1967-1970). Since 2009, Nigeria has faced a protracted terrorist threat in the north by jihadist groups, such as Boko Haram and its offshoot—the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). The country is also ethnically plural, with hundreds of different groups, the largest being the Hausa, Yoruba and Igbo. Women and girls face significant inequities and violence, both from jihadist groups and the military. Same-sex conduct is criminalized, and LGBTQIA+ people face widespread discrimination, including arbitrary arrest and detention, blackmail, extortion and violence. In 2024, protests over deteriorating living conditions were met with a heavy-handed response by security forces, including lethal force, arbitrary arrests, and curfews. Reports of abuse—including the detention of minors and charges of treason against peaceful protesters—reflect broader patterns of repression and a shrinking civic space.
Looking ahead, Nigeria’s democratic trajectory depends on tackling corruption, ensuring credible elections, and addressing human rights violations. Absence of Corruption, Rights and Credible Elections remain critical areas to monitor. Personal Integrity and Security should also be watched given persistent security threats. Nigeria faces great instability on many fronts – politically, economically, and socially – and its prospects for positive democratic and human rights growth will benefit from leadership that prioritizes inclusive development and stability.
Last updated: July 2025
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
September 2024
Government failures blamed for deaths in flooding disaster
In early September, devastating floods in Nigeria’s Maiduguri region claimed hundreds of lives and displaced nearly half a million people, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the region. Heavy rainfall overwhelmed the city’s drainage systems, and the collapse of a dam exacerbated the disaster. Engineers and residents criticized government failures, highlighting inadequate dam maintenance, poor urban planning, and lack of flood mitigation measures. Experts noted that climate change has made extreme weather events more frequent, but poor infrastructure and slow emergency response intensified the impact. The disaster has prompted urgent calls for investment in climate resilience and infrastructure improvements.
Sources: Punch (1), Punch (2), The Africa Report, New York Times
August 2024
Dozens killed as police crackdown on cost-of-living protests amid economic crisis
Dozens of people were killed and hundreds injured as security forces violently repressed protests against the soaring cost of living. The demonstrations were sparked by President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies that triggered inflation and surging prices, as inflation rose to a 30-year high of 34 per cent in June. Despite warnings from ruling party members, religious clerics and even opposition leaders, tens of thousands of mostly young protesters took to the streets, even in northern states where socio-economic protests are rare. The violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces led to the authorities imposing 24-hour curfews across several states to quell the protests. Journalists covering the events were also targeted, with several reportedly brutalized by security forces, while reports have also emerged of state-sponsored armed groups attacking protesters.
Sources: Africa Confidential, The Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, Al Jazeera, X, The Africa Report, International Federation of Journalists
December 2023
At least 85 civilians killed by Nigerian military drone strike
At least 85 (and perhaps as many as 127) civilians were killed in the village of Tudun Biri, in Kaduna state, on 3 December when an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operated by the Nigerian army mistakenly attacked the village. The Nigerian army was engaged in operations against terrorists in the area, and operators mistook a village gathering to celebrate the Muslim holiday Mawlid for the movements of a terrorist group. This was the worst incident of its kind since 2017. President Bola Tinubu ordered the incident to be investigated, and the Committee on Defence in the House of Representatives has promised to monitor the investigation. Protestors gathered outside the National Assembly on 6 December, demanding accountability.
Sources: The Guardian (1), The Guardian (2), The Guardian (3), Sahara Reporters, Financial Times
March 2023
State elections broadly peaceful, but challenges remain
Following the national elections held in February, Nigerians voted for the members of Houses of Assembly for the 36 states, and for governors of 28 states on 18 March. Following a number of complaints about the conduct of the national elections made by political parties, the state elections had been delayed by one week as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) sought to find solutions. Observers noted that the state elections experienced fewer logistical challenges than the national elections, and the technologies used for voter identification and results tabulation functioned well. Still there were reports of violence and vote buying, particularly in the states of Lagos, Lagos, Rivers, Enugu and Kano. Observers reported that 21 people were killed in election-related violence. Continuing the trend from the national election, turnout was reportedly low and few women were candidates.
Sources: Yiaga Africa, European Union Election Observation Mission, France24, Premium Times, Africa Report
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