Nigeria
Nigeria is a lower-middle income country in West Africa that performs in the mid-range with regard to Representation, Rights and Participation and in the low range for Rule of Law. It falls in the top 25 per cent of countries in the world in Civic Engagement but is in the bottom 25 per cent for several other factors related mainly to Rights. Between 2017 and 2022, the country saw declines in Credible Elections, Elected Government, Effective Parliament, and Access to Justice; there were no notable improvements during this period. Nigeria’s history of civilian governance has been chequered with periods of authoritarian military rule, and its 2019 election was negatively impacted by logistical problems, irregularities, and violence. The country has the largest population in Africa and the seventh largest globally. Its economy relies on oil production, and other important sectors include agriculture and manufacturing.
Present-day Nigeria was long-dominated by powerful kingdoms, including the Hausa in the north and the Yoruba in the south. It came under British control in the late 19th century. Nigeria secured its independence from Britain in 1960, but lasting legacies from colonialism persist and shape the political landscape. Contemporary political issues play out along religious, ethnic, and gender lines, which are exacerbated by the legacy of colonial-era divide-and-rule policies.
Nigeria is about evenly divided between Christians and Muslims, and this schism characterises the political challenges facing the Nigerian state; it was one aspect of the Biafran Civil War (1967-1970). Since 2009, Nigeria has faced a protracted terrorist threat in the North by extremist Islamist groups, such as Boko Haram, which seek to establish an Islamic state. The country is also ethnically plural with hundreds of different groups, of which the four main ones are the Yoruba, Hausa, Igbo, and Fulani. Finally, Nigerian women and girls face significant inequities—as well as violence at the hands of groups like Boko Haram—and LGBTQIA+ people experience very high levels of prejudice.
Additionally, Nigeria faces sectarian threats and organised crime in its central and northwest regions, where criminal gangs loot villages, kidnap for ransom, and engage in cattle raiding. Nigeria’s economic hub in the south, the oil-rich Niger Delta region, has endured intractable inter- and intra-communal violence and conflict due to competition to control oil resources (including violent resistance to foreign oil companies), poor governance, and grievances with the allegedly ethnically discriminatory development policy of the central government. Poverty is a significant issue and is spatially concentrated in the north of the country, which is one of several reasons for Boko Haram’s emergence. The insecurity caused by these conflicts, coupled with the presence of endemic corruption, continues to strain the Nigerian economy.
The democratic health of Nigeria depends on the commitment by office bearers to tackle the entrenched corruption in the public sector and ensure transparent election processes. As a result, the Absence of Corruption and Credible Elections factors are worth watching in the future. Rights should also be watched, especially in light of persistent security threats and unequal social development throughout the country. Nigeria faces great instability on many fronts – politically, economically, and socially – and its prospects for positive democratic and human rights growth will depend on a diligent and dedicated leadership that is able to tackle these myriad issues.
Monthly Event Reports
March 2023 | State elections broadly peaceful, but challenges remain
Following the national elections held in February, Nigerians voted for the members of Houses of Assembly for the 36 states, and for governors of 28 states on 18 March. Following a number of complaints about the conduct of the national elections made by political parties, the state elections had been delayed by one week as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) sought to find solutions. Observers noted that the state elections experienced fewer logistical challenges than the national elections, and the technologies used for voter identification and results tabulation functioned well. Still there were reports of violence and vote buying, particularly in the states of Lagos, Lagos, Rivers, Enugu and Kano. Observers reported that 21 people were killed in election-related violence. Continuing the trend from the national election, turnout was reportedly low and few women were candidates.
February 2023 | Elections for President and National Assembly held
On 25 February, Nigerians voted in one of the most consequential elections in Africa in 2023. The lead-up to the election was dominated by economic challenges and protests against shortages of fuel and the newly redesigned currency. Turnout was markedly low, down from the already low mark of 35 per cent in 2019, with only 27 per cent of registered voters participating in the election. International observers faulted the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) for logistical failures, irregularities, and a lack of transparency. The ruling party (All People’s Congress) candidate Bola Ahmed Tinubu was declared the winner of the presidential election. In the National Assembly, the APC lost ground to opposition parties, but retained its majority in the Senate and likely also in the House of Representatives. The election failed to advance women’s representation, with only 18 women elected to the 469-member National Assembly thus far (some seats remain to be determined). Opposition parties have announced that they will challenge the outcome of the presidential election in the courts. Those proceedings are likely to last at least six months.
December 2022 | Allegations of abuses by military in fight against insurgents
In two stories published in December, Reuters reported on allegations of severe abuses by the Nigerian military in its years-long fight against insurgent groups. One report alleged that the Nigerian military had been operating a programme that performed abortions (often without consent) on women who had fallen pregnant after being taken as hostages by Islamist insurgent groups. Reuters found that more than 10,000 such abortions had been performed since 2013. In a second report, Reuters alleged that children were intentionally targeted during military operations against Islamist insurgent groups. The report suggested that thousands of children have been murdered over the past 13 years and was able to find at least two witnesses to six incidents in which a total of 60 children were killed. The Nigerian military and government responded to each of these reports with a complete denial, calling the reporting an insult and evil. Nevertheless, the Chief of Defence Staff, General Lucky Irabor, asked the National Human Rights Commission to investigate the allegations made in these reports.
November 2022 | CSOs on the alert as general election approaches
With only three months until the February 2023 elections in Nigeria, many CSOs have been active in highlighting any procedural problems or restrictions on political rights. After a process of internal review during which the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) purged the voter register of 2.7 million ineligible registrants, INEC published the preliminary voter registry for public review. CSOs were quick to bring attention to potential problems relating to the registration of persons who may be too young to vote, and others who may be registered more than once. Following public input, the registry is to be corrected before the election. In isolated, but concerning incidents, two INEC local offices were the targets of arson in Ogun State and Osun State. Given the understaffing, logistical challenges (including matters around voter registration), and violence that marred the 2019 election, these matters in Nigeria must be carefully monitored.
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GSoD Indices Data 2013-2022
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