Egypt

Egypt’s population is 90% Sunni Muslim and 10% Christian (mainly Coptic). Conflict over the role of religion in the country dates back at least to the Arab Enlightenment of the late 19th century. Since the destruction of the Muslim Brotherhood, which had been the largest, most cohesive opposition group, two trends have overtaken Egyptian politics. The first is the eruption of extremist violence both in the Sinai Peninsula and in religiously motivated attacks across the country, especially targeting Christians. The second is a top-down war on any form of civic organization outside the auspices of the government, whether that is by nonprofits, media, or labor. Egyptian society, for its part, has fought back, but only as small groups, struggling in isolation from one another. As more nonprofit organizations and activists are forced to leave the country or face arrest, they look to continue their work abroad.  As the government (and especially the military) undertakes more and more ambitious construction projects, it is resisted by tenants of unregistered buildings. Remaining independent media outlets attempt to defend their journalists from arbitrary arrest. Nascent organizing by LGBTQ+ advocates is brutally crushed, and subjected to targeted harassment by regime-affiliated media.

With the reintroduction of military rule, Egyptians have fewer civil liberties, weaker civil society, and more dire economic prospects than they had even in the pre-2011 Mubarak era. Prospects of democratization remain low, given the tight control Al-Sisi’s government maintains over Egyptian society. The direction of Egypt will be best measured from movement in the Civil Liberties subattribute, which could presage a return to the pre-2011 status quo or a move toward deepening autocratization. Recent instability in world food markets has drawn attention to the precarity of Egypt’s food security, endangering the regime’s tacit contract of curtailed freedoms for economic stability. The Social Rights and Equality subattribute will track how well the regime holds to its end of the bargain, and could show either a reduction in the pressure on the regime or an early warning that popular frustration will boil over.