Egypt
Egypt performs at the low level across all four categories of the Global State of Democracy framework. It is among the bottom 25 per cent of the world’s countries with regard to the majority of factors of democratic performance. Over the last five years, Egypt has maintained relative stability, suffering no notable declines. Egypt’s economy depends on tourism, construction, some manufacturing, agriculture, and foreign aid, and these sectors, especially tourism, have struggled with the economic effects of instability post-2011 and the Covid-19 pandemic. Global trade disruptions due to Red Sea attacks have also negatively affected Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue.
Since the fall of the British-aligned monarchy in 1952, and apart from a brief period from 2012 to 2013, Egypt has been ruled by members of its military. The Tahrir Square protests of 2011 brought about the fall of President Hosni Mubarak, followed by a brief democratic era under Egypt's first democratically elected president, Mohammed Morsi. This period ended in 2013, when Abdelfattah Al-Sisi took power via a military coup. There is no real opposition, and political parties are weakened and co-opted by state security. A new constitution promulgated in 2019 allows President Al-Sisi to continue to seek re-election until 2034. Continued detention of activists and journalists has paralyzed civic life, while economic instability has led to widespread poverty, with huge gaps in the social safety net.
Egypt’s population is 90 per cent Sunni Muslim and 10 per cent Christian (mainly Coptic). Conflict over the role of religion in the country dates back at least to the Arab Enlightenment of the late 19th century. Egypt faces extremist violence in the Sinai Peninsula and has experienced religiously motivated attacks across the country, especially targeting Christians. Since the downfall of the Muslim Brotherhood, which had been the largest, most cohesive opposition group, Egyptian politics have also been marked by a top-down war on any form of civic organization outside the auspices of the government, whether that is by nonprofits, media, or labor. Egyptian society, for its part, has fought back, but only as small groups, struggling in isolation from one another. As more nonprofit organizations and activists are forced to leave the country or face arrest, they look to continue their work abroad. As the government (and especially the military) undertakes more and more ambitious construction projects, it is resisted by tenants of unregistered buildings. Remaining independent media outlets attempt to defend their journalists from arbitrary arrest. Nascent organizing by LGBTQIA+ advocates is brutally crushed and subjected to targeted harassment by regime-affiliated media.
Egypt is among the world’s bottom 25 per cent with regard to performance on Gender Equality. Nevertheless, the country has seen important progress in the last two decades, including the dramatic rise in women’s political participation between 2011 – before the Arab Spring – and 2023, attributable to constitutional amendments introducing a 25 per cent gender quota in parliament. Yet, gender equality continues to be challenged by disparities, notably in the labour market and in wages, while gender-based violence is prevalent.
Looking ahead, it will be relevant to watch Rights, as recent instability in world food markets has drawn attention to the precarity of Egypt’s food security, endangering the regime’s tacit contract of curtailed freedoms for economic stability. The Social Group Equality and Economic Equality subfactors will track how well the regime holds to its end of the bargain and could show either a reduction in the pressure on the regime or an early warning that popular frustration will boil over.
Last Updated: June 2024
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
June 2024
Sudanese refugees face mass arrests and deportations
Sudanese refugees fleeing the war in Sudan face worsening conditions in Egypt, including mass arrests and forced deportations. The rights group Amnesty International reported on 19 June that Sudanese nationals fleeing from the ongoing war in Sudan are systematically denied access to the asylum process in Egypt, being instead detained in military facilities near the border and forcibly returned to Sudan without the ability to contest their deportations. Approximately 800 Sudanese nationals were deported between January and March 2024 under such circumstances, placing Sudanese asylum seekers at a heightened risk of exploitation. Egypt introduced strict visa requirements for Sudanese nationals in 2023, following the outbreak of the war in Sudan. This visa policy has severely restricted access to asylum and is estimated to have impacted over 500,000 Sudanese individuals seeking refuge through land crossings into Egypt.
Sources: Reuters, Amnesty International, Egyptian State Information Service
December 2023
President el-Sissi secures a third term in office amid landslide victory
President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was re-elected for a third term in office, winning 89.6 per cent of the vote in presidential elections held between 10 and 12 December. According to Egypt's National Election Authority, the electoral process was marked by a record turnout of 66.8 per cent. There were no female candidates. International observers noted the smooth execution of the voting process and praised Egypt's efforts in conducting the election. El-Sisi’s win solidifies his position as the country's leader for another six years, starting from April 2024, after already being in power for a decade. As per the Egyptian Constitution, it is anticipated that this will be his last term. However, the landslide victory raises questions about the state of democracy in the country, particularly considering the absence of robust opposition as el-Sisi's authority remains unchallenged and the space for democratic discourse appears to be shrinking.
Sources: Egypt State Information Service (1), Al Jazeera, Egypt Today, Egypt State Information Service (2), African Union, Africa News, Amnesty International, International IDEA
October 2023
Controversy Surrounds el-Sisi's Bid for Third Presidential Term
President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi announced on 2 October 2 his intention to run for a third term in the upcoming presidential elections in December. However, his candidacy has not been met without controversy. Ahmed Tantawi, a prominent opposition figure and presidential candidate, announced on 13 October 13 his withdrawal from the race due to alleged harassment and intimidation by authorities. Tantawi stated he failed to secure the 25,000 individual endorsements required to participate in the election, citing a series of obstacles imposed by the authorities, including intimidation tactics, arrests, and even phone hacking. Following Tantawi's exit, only four candidates remain in the presidential race, including President el-Sisi. These incidents have sparked concerns over the transparency and fairness of Egypt's electoral process. Critics suggest that the current regime may be leveraging its power to stifle opposition and restrict competition, casting doubts on Egypt's adherence to democratic norms.
Sources: Al Jazeera, Al Monitor, National News, The New Arab, France 24
September 2023
Rights groups report dozens of arrests in lead up to December election
President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is the leading candidate in the election, running for what would be his third term. Within days of the announcement of the upcoming election, rights groups in Egypt began to report that dozens of opposition party supporters had been arrested in different parts of the country, often on charges of spreading false news, or joining a terrorist group. Such arrests are not uncommon in Egypt (where some sources estimate there are as many as 60,000 political prisoners), but they appear to be increasing in number in the lead up to the election. The timing of these arrests makes them even more important as they are likely to severely impair the fairness of the electoral process.
Sources: Al Jazeera, Middle East Eye, Associated Press, New York Times
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Global ranking per category of democratic performance in 2023
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Factors of Democratic Performance Over Time
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