Guinea
Guinea, also known as Guinea-Conakry, exhibits low-range performance in three categories of the Global State of Democracy Framework (Representation, Rights, and Rule of Law) but is in the mid-range with regard to Participation. It is amongst the bottom 25 per cent of countries in the majority of factors of democratic performance. Over the last five years, it has experienced significant declines across multiple aspects of Representation, Rights, and Rule of Law. These stark declines have followed a 2021 coup that overthrewPresident Alpha Condé and installed a military regime. Economically, Guinea is a low-income country that remains heavily reliant on agriculture and mining bauxite, diamonds, gold, and iron ore.
Present-day Guinea was long inhabited by hunter-gatherer populations before the dawn of the Mali and Fulani empires. The Portuguese arrived in the 15th century and developed a slave trade; the country eventually became a French colony in the 19th century. A 1958 independence referendum made Guinea the first French colony in Africa to gain independence. The early years of independence were marked by the authoritarian rule of Presidents Sekou Touré and Lansana Conté. During this time, Guinea experienced coups, human rights abuses—including the use of concentration camps—and severe poverty. It was also impacted by the effects of civil wars in neighboring countries. While the 1990 constitution allowed multiparty elections to be held in 1993, the first democratic election did not occur until 2010, when Alpha Condé was elected president.
Throughout Guinea’s post-independence history, the polity has been significantly affected by ethnic cleavages. Ethnic and regional voting is widespread, as politicians exploit ethnic divides between the Fulani (approximately 40 per cent of the population) and the Malinké (approximately 30 per cent) to win power; these divisions have also resulted in ethnic violence and turmoil. Indeed, there is also a high degree of political polarization that exists between the government and the opposition. Other issues of identity continue to divide Guineans. The country has one of the highest rates of female genital mutilation at 95 per cent, gender-based violence affects nine in ten women and girls, and women’s political representation for women has remained weak despite the adoption of the Gender Parity Law in 2019. Guinea is also one of the few former French colonies that continues to criminalize same-sex relationships.
For many Guineans, democracy and development remain central political concerns—issues that also triggered the 2021 military coup. Former President Condé had controversially secured a third term in 2020 despite the widespread support for a two-term limit. Since the coup, protesters calling for a return to democracy have been met with excessive police force. Additionally, frustration over poor governance remains high, 88 per cent of young Guineans dissatisfied with the government's job creation efforts.
Looking ahead, the country’s performance in Representation and Rule of Law warrants close attention. The junta has suspended electoral democracy and parliament, and while it initially proposed a three-year transition, it missed the December 2024 deadline. A new constitutional referendum has now been scheduled for the second half of 2025, raising concerns that it could entrench military power rather than pave the way for credible elections. Political represession, the sidelining of opposition parties, and a delayed census cast further doubt on the credibility of the transition process.
Last updated: June 2025
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
September 2025
Guinea approves new constitution in referendum ahead of elections
On 26 September, Guinea’s Supreme Court confirmed the results of a constitutional referendum held on 21 September, in which voters approved a new constitution, with authorities reporting 89.4 per cent support and 86.4 per cent turnout. The new constitution replaces the transitional charter adopted after the 2021 coup and removes a prior ban on junta members contesting elections, allowing transitional President Mamady Doumbouya to contest the 28 December presidential election. It also extends the presidential term from five to seven years, renewable twice, and creates a Senate, with one-third of its members appointed by the president. The opposition, including several suspended or exiled parties, boycotted the vote, citing political restrictions and an uneven playing field. Authorities deployed 45,000 security forces nationwide for the vote. Ahead of the December presidential election, UN rights chief Volker Türk urged authorities to lift bans on political parties and media outlets and ensure inclusive elections.
Sources: International Crisis Group, Radio France Internationale, Jurist News, Africa News, Africa Center for Strategic Studies, Jeune Afrique, International IDEA (1), International IDEA (2), International IDEA (3)
August 2025
Guinea suspends three opposition parties ahead of constitutional referendum
On 22 August, Guinea’s military government suspended three major opposition parties—the Rally of the Guinean People (RPG), Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) and Party of Renewal and Progress (PRP)—for 90 days, citing non-compliance with the Political Parties Charter. Authorities say the parties missed deadlines to hold conventions and submit financial documents, including bank statements. However, party officials claim they were obstructed from meeting requirements, with UFDG citing legal interference with organizing a congress and RPG noting that its bank accounts were frozen. Legal experts and rights groups view the move as part of a broader crackdown on dissent ahead of a controversial 21 September constitutional referendum, as the junta faces accusations of seeking to extend its rule through constitutional reform. The suspension, which bans all political activities, comes ahead of planned opposition protests on 5 September, denouncing the constitutional referendum.
Sources: Guinee News, Radio France Internationale, Barron’s, International Crisis Group, Jurist News, Jeune Afrique
June 2025
Draft constitution proposes major institutional changes ahead of referendum
On 26 June, authorities in Guinea presented a draft constitution that will be submitted to a referendum on 21 September. The proposed text extends the presidential term from five to seven years, renewable once, introduces a bicameral legislature with a new Senate, and creates a special court to try high-ranking officials for crimes committed in office. It also elevates eight national languages (including Susa, Fulani, Malinke, and Kissi) to official status alongside French and mandates a minimum 30 per cent quota for women in elected and leadership roles. While the transition charter bars junta members from running in elections, it remains unclear whether transitional president Mamadi Doumbouya will stand. Critics accuse the junta of using the reform process to entrench power, pointing to the removal of provisions in the initial draft that explicitly barred lifetime presidencies and strictly limited constitutional revisions.
Sources: The Office of the President – Guinea, Jeune Afrique (1), Jeune Afrique (2), Barron’s, Constitution Net
Junta creates new elections authority ahead of referendum
On 14 June, Guinea’s transitional president Mamady Doumbouya issued a decree creating a new elections authority ahead of the 21 September constitutional referendum. The new Direction Générale des Élections (DGE), placed under the authority of the Minister responsible for Territorial Administration, will manage political votes, referendums, and the biometric voter roll, while also helping establish a special election security force. Its director will be appointed by presidential decree. Critics warn the body lacks independence and could facilitate executive control of the process. Former bar association president Mohamed Traoré described the move as consolidating a ‘partisan administration’ that acts as both ‘judge and party.’ Others warned it paves the way for Doumbouya’s possible candidacy despite prior pledges not to run. The decree represents a break from prior efforts since 2010 to separate electoral management from state oversight and has intensified concerns over the credibility of Guinea’s upcoming elections.
Sources: Barron’s, Jeune Afrique (1), Jeune Afrique (2), Mohamed Traoré (Facebook)
April 2025
Guinea sets September date for constitutional referendum
On 1 April, Guinea’s military junta announced a constitutional referendum for 21 September 2025, framing it as a precursor to elections and a step toward ‘restoring constitutional order.’ The draft constitution is expected to address key issues such as presidential term limits, electoral frameworks, and whether junta members can run for office—a restriction currently imposed by Article 46 of the transition charter. The vote follows a missed December 2024 deadline to end military rule. The National Alliance for Alternation and Democracy (ANAD), a coalition of parties and associations, called the announcement a ‘manoeuvre to perpetuate dictatorship.’ With two former ruling parties suspended, another under surveillance, rising repression, and a delayed electoral census, observers question the prospects for holding free and fair elections as scheduled.
Update: On 12 May, Prime Minister Amadou Oury Bah announced that presidential and legislative elections would be held in December 2025.
Sources: Africa Confidential (1), International IDEA, Guinée News, Radio France Internationale, Jeune Afrique, Africa News, Africa Confidential (2)
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Global ranking per category of democratic performance in 2024
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Performance by category over the last 6 months
Global State of Democracy Indices
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Factors of Democratic Performance Over Time
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