Montenegro
Montenegro is a small country in the Western Balkans. It declared independence from the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro (what remained of Yugoslavia after the wars of the 1990s) in 2006. Montenegro performs in the mid-range across all Global State of Democracy (GSoD) categories of democracy, with especially strong performance in Participation. It falls within the top 25 per cent of performers in the world with regard to Electoral Participation, Basic Welfare and Personal Integrity and Security. Over the past five years, its performance has been stable, with no notable declines or advances. Montenegro is an upper-middle-income country, with an open and service-oriented economy. It is highly dependent on tourism. Montenegro is also an official candidate for EU accession and opened membership accession negotiations in 2012.
The Democratic Party of Socialists (the successors to the Yugoslav communists) have dominated the political scene since 1992, losing power for the first time in 2020. In general, political competition in Montenegro has mainly unfolded between an Atlanticist, pro-European, Montenegrin nationalist, center-left block, and a right-of-center grouping that has traditionally favoured close relations with Serbia and Russia and a strong role for the Serbian Orthodox Church. In recent years, this contest has resulted in an alleged coup attempt linked to members of the Russian-aligned opposition, and major protests concerning the state’s treatment of Serbian Orthodox Church assets, the appointment of church officials, and proposed revisions to the law on citizenship. Montenegro was relatively untouched by fighting in the ethnic conflicts which precipitated Yugoslavia’s collapse and is today a diverse country. It is home to Montenegrins, Serbs, Bosniaks, Albanians, and other smaller groups. While inter-ethnic and inter-religious relations are generally peaceful, minorities have expressed concerns about discrimination and the possibility of inter-ethnic violence. In contemporary Montenegro, the most visible religious conflict exists between the Montenegrin and Serbian Orthodox churches, which refuse to recognize each other’s legitimacy, and both claim ownership of many of the same religious sites.
Montenegro also faces challenges of democratic institutionalization and corruption. This issue is exemplified by ongoing problems related to illicit business arrangements involving top politicians. In this respect, in 2021, the Pandora Papers investigation revealed that high-level politicians had established offshore trusts in the British Virgin Islands. In its evaluation report, the Council of Europe’s Group of States Against Corruption (GRECO) pointed to a lack of public authorities’ ownership of existing laws against corruption, weak implementation of such laws.
GSoD Indices data show that Montenegro has performed at the mid-range on gender equality for the last decade, and newly adopted legislation and policies have contributed to progress in gender equality in recent years. Yet, patriarchal values and customary norms persist, violence against women remains widespread, and inequality continues to manifest, most notably in political, economic and social decision-making.
Looking ahead, it will be important to watch Montenegro’s progress towards EU membership. Given the dominance of one party in the country’s history, it will also be critical to watch elections and moves to address issues related to a more harmonized legal framework, more inclusive participation, transparency of campaign finance, dispute resolution and the inclusion of women in the electoral process.
Monthly Event Reports
June 2023 | Europe Now Movement wins snap parliamentary elections
The centrist Europe Now Movement has come first in the snap parliamentary elections, winning 25.5 per cent of the vote. These are the first elections in 30 years in which Milo Đukanović, the longest-ruling leader in contemporary Europe has not participated (following his loss in presidential elections in April). Đukanović held key positions for over 31 years, including as a president and prime minister. The coalition led by his party, the Democratic Party of Socialists, received 23.2 per cent of the vote, while the pro-Serbian electoral alliance “For the Future of Montenegro” garnered 14.7 per cent. Outgoing Prime Minister Dritan Abazović’s green-conservative coalition of United Reform Action and Democratic Montenegro won 12.5 per cent of the vote. The party has promised reforms on EU membership and the economy, including increases in average wages. International observers deemed the elections well-run, but emphasized the need for electoral reforms due to gaps and inconsistencies on the election law, which has not been updated since 2014. Voter turnout was the lowest since 1990, dropping to 56.3 per cent, a notable decrease from 76.7 per cent in 2020.
April 2023 | Landmark presidential runoff: Longstanding Đukanović suffers defeat from novice Milatović
Jakov Milatović of the Europe Now movement has won the presidential runoff election in Montenegro with 60 per cent of the vote, defeating longstanding incumbent Milo Đukanović, who has been a key actor in Montenegro’s politics for more than three decades, including as a prime minister and as a president. Although the presidency is a largely ceremonial position in Montenegro, the results signal the boost of Milatović’s center-right movement ahead of June’s parliamentary elections. Milatović, a former economy minister, campaigned on an anti-corruption and EU membership platform. Milatović received support from parties close to Serbia, Russia and the Orthodox Church. Voter turnout was 70.1 per cent, a record high as compared to other previous presidential elections. The turnout in the 2018 elections was 63.9 per cent.
March 2023 | Investigation spotlights police links with criminal groups
A large-scale investigation into organised crime has revealed ties between police and criminal groups and led to the government sacking police director, Zoran Brdjanin. Police assistant director, Dejan Knezevic, who was in charge of the fight against organized crime, was arrested for alleged links with the notorious Kavac drug group and for the creation of a criminal organization. The move comes following years of organized crime driven by gang violence and allegations that these groups have links with elite and government figures. Outgoing Prime Minister Dritan Abazović said that organized crime groups influenced the vote of no confidence to oust him, following increased raids for drugs and smuggled cigarettes leading to the biggest seizure of cocaine in the Balkans (1.4 tonnes). The Special State Prosecutor Sasa Cadjenovic was charged with protecting gang members, and Vesna Medenica, the head of the Supreme Court for 17 years, was charged for abuse of office and covering her son’s alleged illegal dealings with cocaine and cigarettes.
August 2022 | Government toppled by no-confidence vote
Dritan Abazović’s coalition government fell after a vote of no-confidence was called by the coalition parties following an agreement Abazović signed with the Serbian Orthodox Church (SOC). The controversial agreement regulates the SOC’s position in the country, enabling its ownership over land and properties, including monasteries that are claimed by the Montenegrin Orthodox Church (which remained under the SOC following Montenegro’s separation from Serbia in 2006). This raised fears that the SOC is getting too much power compared to other religious groups and that this could increase Serbia’s and Russia’s influence in Montenegro. The agreement caused protests, was deemed unconstitutional by the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and was especially opposed by pro-Western groups, exposing divisions between those who identify as Montenegrins and those who identify as pro-Russian Serbs.
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GSoD Indices Data 2013-2022
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