Hungary
Hungary performs in the mid-range across all four categories of the Global State of Democracy framework. Over the last five years, Hungary has experienced significant declines in Rule of Law, Predictable Enforcement, Social Group Equality, Credible Elections and Elected Government. Industry, wholesale and retail, trade, transport, accommodation, food services and transfers from the EU (which account for six to seven per cent of GDP) are the most important sectors of its economy.
Following a war of independence against the Habsburg dynasty, the Austro-Hungarian Empire emerged in 1867 as a significant power. Following its collapse after World War I, the Treaty of Trianon (1920) defined Hungary’s current borders. Hungary's shift to democracy began in the 1990s and solidified with EU accession in 2004. The global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the unpopularity of the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP), which was in power at the time, provided the opportunity for Fidesz party, led by Viktor Orbán, to return to power (dominantly) in 2010.
Since then, democratic performance has regressed. Declines have been due to executive aggrandizement and strategic electoral manipulation, illiberal legislation, diminished authority of the Constitutional Court, government control over media, and institutions populated with ruling party loyalists. In recent years Fidesz has turned pluralities (or slim majorities) of the popular vote into supermajorities in the parliament, thus allowing for unilateral constitutional changes. In response to rule of law violations, the EU froze billions of euros of funding to Hungary. Following certain reforms, some funding was released in late 2023. In 2024, the European Parliament decided to take the European Commission to the European Court of Justice over this decision, alleging insufficient assessment of the issues of judicial independence.
One of the main cleavages in Hungarian politics today is between urban and rural areas, with the former typically favouring liberal and pro-EU views and rural areas leaning towards conservative, nativist and anti-globalization views. This geographical polarization is in part a function of the ways in which the political parties have developed and the sources of support that they have decided to court. Government media dominance and the distribution of EU-sourced public works funding have further solidified Fidesz’s dominance in rural areas. Migration is also an important issue. Though Hungary accepted many asylum applications as the migration crisis spiked in 2015, the construction of border fences and legal amendments subsequently reduced the numbers drastically. By 2023, there were no asylum applications. Fidesz maintains an anti-immigration stance, and there are multiple reports of systemic violations of asylum seekers’ human rights. Hungary has been found guilty of breaching EU law in several rulings, with multiple pending cases in the CJEU and ECHR.
The Roma constitute the largest minority group, officially accounting for 2.5 per cent, though estimates suggest their actual representation ranges from five to ten per cent. Germans, Slovaks, Romanians, and Croats follow. The Roma community experiences discrimination, social and economic marginalization, educational exclusion, and exposure to hate speech.
Progress towards gender equality has been slow, with significant inequalities persisting in political, economic and social decision-making. As of February 2024, women occupy merely 14.5 per cent of the parliamentary seats, representing one of the lowest rates in the EU. Anti-LGBTQIA+, anti-abortion also mark the current landscape.
In the aftermath of the 2022 election, which allowed Fidesz to maintain power, it will be important to watch whether EU measures and mechanisms, especially related to Rule of Law, might help curb democratic deterioration. Other areas to watch include Judicial Independence and Social Group Equality and Gender Equality.
Monthly Event Reports
February 2024 | Child abuse pardoning decision triggers public outcry and resignations
A news site revelation that President Katalin Novák pardoned a man convicted of covering up sexual abuse in a children’s home (in a decision countersigned by Justice Minister Judit Varga) unleashed unprecedented political pressure on the ruling elite, known for its traditional family-oriented politics. The scandal triggered concerns regarding the transparency and ethical considerations involved in pardon decisions and their potential impact on depriving victims of due justice. Investigative journalists reported that Zoltán Balog, the leader of the Hungarian Reformed Church, advisor and mentor to President Novák, and former Fidesz MP and minister in Orbán’s government, influenced this presidential pardon. Following pressure from the opposition and public outcry (including widespread protests), Novák and Varga resigned on 10 February. Novák made history as the country's first female president, while Varga was among the two women in Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's male-dominated cabinet. On 26 February, the parliament elected the ruling coalition Fidesz-KNDP's candidate Tamás Sulyok, former chief of the Constitutional Court, as the new president.
December 2023 | Parliament passes ‘sovereignty law’
On 12 December, the parliament passed a law to protect “national sovereignty,” targeting what the ruling Fidesz party views as unwarranted foreign political interference, particularly through funding to political parties during the electoral campaigns. The legislation, passed with 141 votes in favour and 50 against, establishes the Sovereignty Protection Office, equipped with extensive investigative powers. This office can scrutinize NGOs and individuals engaged in public discourse, initiating investigations into those suspected of serving foreign interests. The Penal Code now states that those who are found to have accepted foreign funding while running for office may face up to three years in prison. The Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights urged Fidesz to abandon the proposal, expressing concerns about potential misuse of sensitive data. Four major political groups voiced deep concerns about threats to the rule of law in a letter to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Critics, including rights groups, warned the law resembles Russia's foreign agent legislation, posing risks to freedom of expression and independent journalism.
July 2023 | Parliament passes controversial education law
Despite protests by teachers, students and parents, the parliament has voted in favour of a controversial education law, which enters into force on 1 January 2024. The law abolishes teachers’ status as public servants, limiting their rights and restricting their autonomy. Further, the maintainer of their educational institution, which in most cases is the state, will determine their salaries based on their performance. Critics fear that loyalty to the state will count towards better performance evaluations. By 29 September, teachers can either accept these conditions or resign. More than 5,000 have already pledged to resign in a March petition. They consider the bill a government retaliation against their 1.5 years of striking for better pay and working conditions. Trade unions have criticized the law for overloading teachers and masking staff shortages, whereas the president, Katalin Novák, insists that it “ensures the [...] functioning of the public education system”.
June 2023 | EU Court rules Hungary’s migration regulation breached EU law
The European Court of Justice has ruled that Hungary broke EU law when it introduced a new law during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 making procedures more difficult for asylum seekers. The judgment found that the law deprived “third-country nationals or stateless persons concerned of the effective enjoyment of their right to seek asylum from Hungary”. The rules forced asylum seekers, including those already in Hungary, to submit a pre-asylum application at Hungarian embassies in Serbia or Ukraine before applying for international protection in Hungary. Authorities said that certain asylum seekers, such as Ukrainians, were exempt from the rules. The case was brought forth by the European Commission, which will now have to decide between demanding that Hungary repeal the regulation and levying fines.
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