Iraq

Iraq is a multi-ethnic country, characterized by politicized sectarian divisions, and its vast natural resources have fueled several local and international conflicts. Its population is largely Arab, although it is also home to numerous ethnic and religious minorities that have historically suffered from discrimination, persecution and displacement. The Iraqi economy is highly reliant on oil revenues, accounting for 42 per cent of its GDP and 85 per cent of the government’s budget. Socio-economic development has been hampered by a precarious and unreliable state budget that is vulnerable to volatility in global oil prices. These fragilities are aggravated by rampant politically sanctioned corruption that prevents the use of oil revenues for public sector reform or service delivery, contributing to widespread poverty, economic stagnation, and absence of basic services for large sectors of its population. Iraq’s muhasasa taifia consociational political system - adopted in the aftermath of 2003 US-led invasion - has led to ethnic-based patronage, enabling the division of public resources among ruling elites and their networks. Since its first national election in 2005, Iraq has been governed by successive Shia-led administrations that have consistently isolated the Sunni community. The salience of ethnicity in politics has been entrenched by the power-sharing arrangement, designed to accommodate various groups and political identities in allocating key governance positions to the main ethno-sectarian groups. This has allowed little space for the emergence of alternative forms of democratic governance and political identification outside this framework.

The lack of economic and social progress since the US-led invasion and occupation has generated widespread discontent with the ruling elites and distrust in the state and its institutions. The ethno-sectarian dynamics of the state coupled with weak institutional capacity have contributed to the fragmentation of Iraq’s security sector, breeding complex interactions with hybrid non-state security actors. A lingering security crisis has impeded democratic governance in Iraq, with high levels of violence that continue to undermine personal integrity and security of its citizens. Iraq has been gripped by popular protests demanding reform, most notably the 2019 October Revolution, many of which have been met by state violence.

Given the context, Iraq’s democratic achievements have been limited to the technical aspects of holding elections. Meanwhile, the recent delay in approving the new government caused by a year-long political deadlock has reduced the perceived effectiveness of the electoral process and calls for the need to watch the Representative Government attribute in the years to come. Furthermore, fundamental governance problems threaten the sustainability of the state. Urgent reforms are essential to address the socio-economic problems facing Iraq. Popular discontent remains high and will likely continue to rise until public grievances are addressed. The government’s violent response to citizen dissatisfaction highlights the fragility of its democratic transition. Democratic institutions and processes need to be strengthened to address the array of public policy challenges. Civil liberties are violated daily and the general human rights situation remains a matter of concern to the international community. The lack of political progress and weak democratic institutions put the country at elevated risk of democratic breakdown.