
Iraq

Iraq is a low-performing democracy. Competitive elections have taken place since 2005, following the US-led invasion that resulted in the fall of Saddam Hussein’s authoritarian regime in 2003. Despite the promulgation of a new constitution and governance mechanisms after the invasion, a polarized and unstable political system and fragile democratic institutions remain. The Global State of Democracy Indices (GSoDI) classify Iraq as having low levels of Impartial Administration and Participatory Engagement. In the last five years, Iraq has experienced declines in the GSoDI sub-attributes of Effective Parliament and Judicial Independence and is among the bottom 25 per cent in the world when it comes to Fundamental Rights.
Iraq is a multi-ethnic country, characterized by politicized sectarian divisions, and its vast natural resources have fueled several local and international conflicts. Its population is largely Arab, although it is also home to numerous ethnic and religious minorities that have historically suffered from discrimination, persecution and displacement. The Iraqi economy is highly reliant on oil revenues, accounting for 42 per cent of its GDP and 85 per cent of the government’s budget. Socio-economic development has been hampered by a precarious and unreliable state budget that is vulnerable to volatility in global oil prices. These fragilities are aggravated by rampant politically sanctioned corruption that prevents the use of oil revenues for public sector reform or service delivery, contributing to widespread poverty, economic stagnation, and absence of basic services for large sectors of its population. Iraq’s muhasasa taifia consociational political system - adopted in the aftermath of 2003 US-led invasion - has led to ethnic-based patronage, enabling the division of public resources among ruling elites and their networks. Since its first national election in 2005, Iraq has been governed by successive Shia-led administrations that have consistently isolated the Sunni community. The salience of ethnicity in politics has been entrenched by the power-sharing arrangement, designed to accommodate various groups and political identities in allocating key governance positions to the main ethno-sectarian groups. This has allowed little space for the emergence of alternative forms of democratic governance and political identification outside this framework.
The lack of economic and social progress since the US-led invasion and occupation has generated widespread discontent with the ruling elites and distrust in the state and its institutions. The ethno-sectarian dynamics of the state coupled with weak institutional capacity have contributed to the fragmentation of Iraq’s security sector, breeding complex interactions with hybrid non-state security actors. A lingering security crisis has impeded democratic governance in Iraq, with high levels of violence that continue to undermine personal integrity and security of its citizens. Iraq has been gripped by popular protests demanding reform, most notably the 2019 October Revolution, many of which have been met by state violence.
Given the context, Iraq’s democratic achievements have been limited to the technical aspects of holding elections. Meanwhile, the recent delay in approving the new government caused by a year-long political deadlock has reduced the perceived effectiveness of the electoral process and calls for the need to watch the Representative Government attribute in the years to come. Furthermore, fundamental governance problems threaten the sustainability of the state. Urgent reforms are essential to address the socio-economic problems facing Iraq. Popular discontent remains high and will likely continue to rise until public grievances are addressed. The government’s violent response to citizen dissatisfaction highlights the fragility of its democratic transition. Democratic institutions and processes need to be strengthened to address the array of public policy challenges. Civil liberties are violated daily and the general human rights situation remains a matter of concern to the international community. The lack of political progress and weak democratic institutions put the country at elevated risk of democratic breakdown.
Monthly Updates
December 2022
On 5 December, a criminal court in Baghdad sentenced an Iraqi activist to three years in prison for a tweet that mocked and criticized Abu Mehdi al-Muhandis, former head of the government-salaried paramilitary organization Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The sentence, which follows a number of arrests targeting activists, sparked anti-government demonstrations. At least three protesters were shot dead and several injured as Iraqi security forces responded with deadly violence. Human rights groups have criticized the prison sentence and expressed concerns regarding the alarming escalation of legal threats against civil society and use of the justice system as a tool to suppress peaceful criticism by Iraqi authorities.
October 2022
The Parliament of Iraq elected Abdul Latif Rashid as president on 13 October, after obtaining support from the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Shiite Coordination Framework. Mohammed Shiaa al-Sudani was named Prime Minister by President Rashid and tasked to form a cabinet. PM al-Sudani’s proposed cabinet was approved by the parliament on 27 October, paving the way for a new government and break of what has been a year-long political deadlock. Prominent Shi’ite cleric and political leader Muqtada al-Sadr refused to participate in Iraq’s government.
September 2022
Iraq’s Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi convened a second round of talks on 5 September to resolve the ongoing political crisis between rival Shia blocs. Shi'ite Muslim cleric and political leader Muqtada al-Sadr called for the dissolution of the legislature and the holding of early elections in light of the current parliament’s failure to form Iraq’s new government. This proposal was rejected by the Supreme Court on 7 September, and parliamentary sessions resumed by the end of the month, with over 200 MPs in attendance. Several rockets were fired into the Green Zone as parliament was holding a vote to confirm its speaker with airstrikes and clashes lasting several days, wounding at least seven police officers.
August 2022
The long fluctuating political situation in Iraq over stalled attempts to form a government sparked violent clashes on 29 August. A deadly confrontation was triggered by Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's announcement that he was “retiring” from politics following the withdrawal of 73 Sadrist MPs last June, after failing to form a new government due to the Coordination Framework's obstruction. At least 30 people were killed and about 600 injured. This was Baghdad’s worst period of violence in years. While the violence subsided, deepening tensions between Sadrist Framework alliance and the Iran-backed Coordination continue. The political climate in the country remains tense, with both competing sides ready to again resort to arms and analysts claim Iraq could be on the verge of another civil war. The continuing political crisis led to the resignation of the Finance Minister this month, and the Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhimi threatening to step down if the conflict continues.