Serbia
Serbia is one of the six constituent republics of the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY). It performs in the mid-range in all categories of the Global State of Democracy (GSoD) framework, although its performance in Representation is on the lower end of mid-range. Over the last five years, Serbia has experienced significant declines in several aspects of Representation (Credible Elections, Elected Government, and Effective Parliament), as well as in Civil Liberties and Freedom of Association and Assembly. Serbia is an upper-middle-income country and an official candidate for European Union membership.
The main political cleavage in the last two decades has centered on the question of EU accession and Serbia’s close relationship with Russia, as well as the legacy of the Yugoslav Wars of the 1990s. Its history with Kosovo is particularly contentious. The latter, which had been part of Serbia, was placed under UN administration and declared independence in 2008. Serbia does not recognize Kosovo’s independence. At the time, Kosovo was the country’s southernmost province and simultaneously the spiritual heartland of Serbian Orthodoxy, but largely populated by Kosovar Albanians. In the early 2000s, a pro-West coalition governed for roughly a decade, and made progress in arresting war criminals, apologizing for war crimes in Srebrenica and Vukovar and pursuing EU membership. But these efforts also faced nationalist backlash, most violently seen in the 2003 assassination of Zoran Đinđić – Serbia’s reformist Prime Minister – at the hands of mobsters with ties to a special forces unit from the previous era. Ultimately, economic stagnation after the global financial crisis (by one measure, real incomes in 2013 were no greater than incomes in 1971) drove dissatisfaction and swept the nationalist opposition to power in 2012.
In the decade since, Aleksandar Vučić has consolidated power and established his party (the SNS – Srpska Napredna Stranka) as the only game in town. However, the pro-West parties and the nationalists who have governed since 2012 take similar positions on the issues which define these main cleavages. The pro-West parties steadfastly oppose recognizing Kosovar independence, along with the nationalists, and the nationalists are now pro-EU (a position previously held only by the pro-West reformers). Vučić is widely understood to run the country as President, even though the Constitution establishes the Prime Minister (currently Ana Brnabić) as chief executive. Pro-government media dominates the landscape, and independent outlets are often subject to outright intimidation. Elections are generally representative, but voting has been marred by irregularities, including physical intimidation. In the judicial arena, practices have been aligned with EU requirements, but the system continues to be subject to political pressure.
GSoD Indices data show that Serbia is a mid-range performer on gender equality, recording steady advances over the past twenty years. Nevertheless, structural inequality – exhibited in discrimination against women in the labour market and violence against women – persist.
Looking ahead, Serbian politics is liable to be shaped by its relations with Kosovo, EU accession, and the emergence (or not) of a credible challenge to the incumbents. In the first two areas, there has been little sign of movement. The Brussels Agreement – designed to normalize relations with Kosovo – remains to be fully implemented. Additionally, Serbia has continued to be Russia’s ally despite the war in Ukraine, and for the first time, a majority of Serbs now oppose joining the EU. In the domestic arena, concerns over environmental, quality of life, and corruption issues have increasingly driven political opposition and mass-mobilization. It will be important to watch whether these sentiments will translate to meaningful and consistent gains for opposition parties.
Monthly Event Reports
May 2023 | Mass shootings spark anti-government protests
Two mass shootings (at a school and in several villages) that claimed the lives of 18 people have prompted mass anti-government protests and a movement against President Aleksandar Vučić. Protesters attribute the prevalence of violence in society and the media to the political elite, citing hate speech, glorification of criminals, and the illicit circulation of guns. Prime Minister Ana Brnabić said that the events following the shootings are a result of foreign services and that there will be no “Maidan” in Serbia. Vučić has initiated an amnesty period for those who turn in their arms. Vučić convened a rally, during which he restated that he will resign as the leader of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) to form a supra-party movement “to be the president of all the citizens.” The new SNS leader, current Minister of Defense Miloš Vučević, said SNS will be part of Vučić’s People’s Movement for the State.
April 2023 | IFJ warns about biggest crisis in years for journalists in Serbia
Following a visit in Serbia and multiple meetings with journalists, editors, media unions and associations in Serbia, the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) concluded that independent journalism in the country is experiencing its biggest crisis in years. The organization warned about the lack of safety for journalists, weak rule of law, hostility towards independent reporting, as well as capture of the media. The undermining of the prosecution of attacks on journalists by political leaders has been cited as a major challenge. The IFJ has said that Serbia is one of the EU candidate countries where the media faces the strongest attacks and pressure, and where critical journalism is seen as unpatriotic by the political class. Both President Aleksandar Vučić, and Prime Minister Ana Brnabić were cited for insults and attempts to discredit independent journalism.
March 2023 | Serbia and Kosovo reach verbal agreement on normalisation of relations
Following years of EU-backed negotiations that kicked off in 2011, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell announced that Kosovo and Serbia have reached an agreement on how to implement the EU-sponsored plan on the normalisation of relations. The deal signals an important shift as both countries commit to following the agreement points, which include recognition of national symbols, use of separate documents, protection of Serbian cultural sites in Kosovo and guarantees for self-management of Kosovo’s Serbian minority. Parties agreed not to impede each-other’s EU integration process or attempts to join international organizations (i.e., Kosovo’s membership in the United Nations). However, the 11-point agreement was not signed, and disagreements remain. The agreement was interpreted in distinct ways in Kosovo and Serbia. Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti said the agreement is a de facto recognition of Kosovo, while Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has backtracked in front of domestic audiences, saying that he won’t sign anything and that Serbia’s “red lines are recognition and Kosovo’s ascension to the UN.”
December 2022 | Kosovo-Serb politician detained at the Serbian border
Rada Trajkovic, a prominent Kosovo-Serb politician and fierce critic of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, was detained by the police at the Serbian border leaving Kosovo. She was recently appointed as an adviser to Nenad Rasic, a Kosovo Serb politician who took the post of the Minister of Communities and Returns in Kosovo. Trajkovic has called for the preservation of the Serbian community’s presence in Kosovo, for coexistence and reconciliation. She accused the Serbian president of trying to threaten her and for “criminal actions” against Kosovo-Serbs. Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti condemned Trajkovic’s detention as a “typical retaliation against law-abiding Kosovo-Serbs.”
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GSoD Indices Data 2013-2022
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