Kenya
The Republic of Kenya is a democratic East African state and an important political and economic actor in Africa. A lower-middle income country, Kenya has the largest economy in the East Africa sub-region in terms of GDP and its main economic sectors are agriculture, manufacturing, logistics and technology. However, it has accumulated high levels of debt and has incurred difficulties financing its repayments. High rates of corruption , as well as the marginalization of women (especially due to gender-based violence, including female genital mutilation) further damage Kenya’s economic and governance prospects. In addition to economic challenges, Kenya faces perennial drought, refugee humanitarian crises and recurring inter-ethnic conflicts, notably in the Rift Valley, which have roots in the British colonial era (1896-1963). According to the Global State of Democracy Indices (GSoDI), Kenya’s democratic performance improved from weak to mid-range performing in 2019, with Impartial Administration improving to mid-range performance in 2019 and Checks on Government to high performance in 2021. After a slump in 2017 and 2018, Local Democracy gradually improved but declined again in 2021.
Kenya is religiously and ethnically diverse, but it has a long history of state-orchestrated violence and oppression, and elections are often a trigger for violence along ethnic lines. For example, the infamous post-electoral violence of 2007/08 led to the Commission of Inquiry into Post-Election Violence, the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission, investigations by the International Criminal Court (which indicted six individuals for crimes against humanity, including former President Uhuru Kenyatta and current President William Ruto, and a new constitution introducing major reforms in 2010. Kenya’s post-election violence indicates the embeddedness of ethnicity in its politics but also illustrates enduring issues in the country, such as land tenure and inequality, all of which are at least partially rooted in British colonialism.
As a consequence of ongoing armed conflicts in neighbouring states, Kenya has become host to one of the largest refugee populations in Africa, of which Somalis make up the largest share. Partially due to terrorist attacks perpetrated in Kenya by the Somali-based militant organisation, Al-Shabab, ethnic Somalis have been perceived as a security threat by the Kenyan state, which has been concerned about spillovers from Somalia’s long running conflict. These concerns have contributed to the country becoming a strategic counter-terrorism partner for the United States and other western countries in east and the horn of Africa. However the methods Kenya has employed in its counter-terrorism campaigns have been criticised by rights groups and partner states as being abusive of human rights. These methods are reported to have included torture, extra judicial killings and enforced disappearances. Police brutality and impunity more broadly has been a long-standing issue in Kenya. Corruption is also a major problem, with bribery in public institutions, patronage and nepotism, procurement corruption and embezzlement and mismanagement of funds widespread.
Kenya’s mostly peaceful 2022 elections indicate its progress toward realizing peaceful transitions of democratic power, which – if sustained, and if outstanding measures to enhance the credibility of electoral administration are addressed - may lead to improved Electoral Participation and Representative Government performance. However, gender inequality and increasing youth unemployment could potentially undermine both economic growth and the GSoDI Social Rights and Equality sub-attribute. Relatedly, Kenya’s debt is another concern to watch, along with efforts to address poverty, service delivery, and infrastructural development. The prevalence of drought in Kenya presents a food security challenge and may contribute to worsening humanitarian crises, which could also deepen if the refugee population continues to grow.
Monthly Updates
December 2022
The split within the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) during the 2022 election continues to have implications for the future of the institution. On 2 December, following a recommendation from the National Assembly, President Ruto suspended the four commissioners (Juliana Whonge Cherera, Francis Mathenge Wanderi, Irene Cherop Masit and Justus Abonyo Nyang’aya) who had disputed the official results of the election, and appointed a tribunal to investigate allegations of misconduct. After this, three of the suspended commissioners resigned, thus avoiding participation in the investigation. Masit did not resign and appeared before the tribunal in late December. The tribunal is expected to conclude on 27 January. The remaining three members of the IEBC will conclude their non-renewable six-year term in January 2023, meaning a complete replacement of the IEBC commissioners may take place.
October 2022
In a decision described by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights as “ground-breaking”, Kenyan prosecutors charged twelve police officers with crimes against humanity for their role in the violent suppression of post-election protests in 2017. According to the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights, the violence that followed resulted in 94 deaths, 201 cases of sexual violence and more than 300 injuries, most of which it attributed to the security forces. The charges include rape, murder and torture and are the first under Kenya’s International Crimes Act. It is also the first instance in which electoral-related sexual violence has been criminally prosecuted in Kenya. Newly inaugurated president, William Ruto, has vowed to reform the security sector in order to end the enduring problem of security force violence in the country and in October disbanded the Special Services Unit, a 20-year-old police unit accused of extrajudicial killings and torture.
September 2022
The Kenyan Supreme Court unanimously dismissed all of the petitions challenging the outcome of the country’s presidential election. In its judgment, the court found that no evidence was produced to prove that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Chairperson had been part of a conspiracy to subvert the election, as had been alleged by Raila Odinga (a losing presidential candidate and one of the petitioners), and that the “illegalities and irregularities [pointed out by the petitioners] were not of such magnitude as to affect the final result of the presidential election.” The decision cleared the way for President-Elect William Ruto’s inauguration, which took place on 13 September. Raila Odinga stated that he “respected” but vehemently disagreed with the court’s decision.
August 2022
Kenya held its general elections on 9 August. The winner of the presidential contest was William Ruto, who narrowly beat Raila Odinga by 50.5 per cent to 48.8 per cent. Voter turnout, which was 64.8 per cent, was significantly lower than in the two previous presidential elections. The preliminary findings of international observers praised the elections for being largely peaceful and transparent and stated that electoral processes were generally carried out in accordance with procedure. They did, however, raise several concerns, including the poor informational environment, the misuse of state resources and low registration rates among young Kenyans. Alongside several other petitioners, Odinga has challenged the election result in the Supreme Court, alleging “criminal subversion of the…electoral process” by the Chairperson of Kenya’s election management body, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, which was split over the election result. Judgement is expected in September.
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GSoD Indices Data 2012-2021
Government
Rights
Government
Administration
Engagement
Basic Information
Human Rights Treaties
State party
Signatory
No action
Early Warning System BETA
Moderate risk of democratic breakdown (BETA)
Low risk of democratic backsliding (BETA)