Madagascar
Madagascar performs in the low range in Rule of Law and Rights, and in middle range in Representation and Participation. It is amongst the bottom 25% of countries in the world in terms of its performance in Predictable Enforcement, Inclusive Suffrage, Civic Engagement, Electoral Participation as well multiple factors of Rights. Over the past five years, it has experienced significant declines in Credible Elections. Despite notable natural resources and impressive biodiversity, Madagascar is one of the poorest countries in the world and struggles with acute food insecurity. Seventy-five per cent of Madagascans live below the poverty line. Although the vast majority of the population is employed in agriculture, the services sector makes the largest contribution to the country’s GDP. Its economy is also heavily dependent on foreign aid and has proven to be highly vulnerable to climate change.
Madagascar began to be populated much later than the African mainland – only about 1300 years ago. Interactions with both mainland Africa and parts of Asia have contributed to the development of the national culture and its current ethnic diversity. The most significant ethnic division today is between the two largest groups, the Merina people, who predominantly live in the central, more urban highlands, and the Côtier people, the nominal grouping of the country’s coastal ethnic groups. Having ruled Madagascar in the period immediately before the French annexation (1896), Merina leaders were heavily represented within the small Malagasy elite that emerged under colonial rule, having been favoured by the French colonial administration, and continue to be well represented in governmental functions today.
After 64 years of often brutal French colonization, Madagascar gained independence in 1960, however France maintained a high degree of influence until 1972. Madagascar’s post-independence history has been characterized by political instability, including impeachments, contested elections, and a coup d’etat in 2009 that resulted in the current president's first term as leader of a provisional government. The core driver of this instability has been the weakness of the country’s institutions, including the high degree of centralization of power in the figure of president, the lack of accountability mechanisms, and the (related) predominance of elite capture.
This instability has been perpetuated by political leaders’ efforts to consolidate personal power and eliminate competitors (including throughs violations of the rights of Malagasy citizens). Relatedly, political parties have tended to organize along ethnic and neopatrimonial lines. Political debates have typically centered on the country’s struggling economy (and the non-inclusive economic growth it has featured), food insecurity, as well as rising youth unemployment in the island country.
Madagascar’s diverse population includes at least 18 distinct ethnic groups. While ethnic cleavages no longer amount to overt discrimination, political mobilization tends to occur along this Merina-Côtier divide, and differences continue exist vis-à-vis joblessness and purchasing power statistics. In terms of gender equality, the country is marked by disparities in access to education and employment, and high rates of intimate partner violence.
Looking ahead, it will be important to monitor the country’s performance in Rights, particularly as the months preceding the 2023 Presidential election were marked by a shrinking space for contestation and the consolidation of power in the executive. During that period, a ban on public gatherings impaired Freedom of Association and Assembly, and this indicator should be followed going forward. Relatedly, the government took actions that curtailed press freedoms in late 2023, and there were reports of raids on press offices as well as arbitrary arrests of journalists. Freedom of Expression and of the Press will be key indicators of the country’s democratic trajectory in the near future.
(Last updated September 2024)
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
February 2024
High Constitutional Court upholds new law mandating castration of rapists
On 12 February, the parliament of Madagascar passed a law establishing chemical or surgical castration as punishments for those convicted of raping a child. President Andry Rajoelina referred the law to the High Constitutional Court (Haute Cour Constitutionnelle, HCC) for constitutional review prior to promulgation the following day. The Court ruled on 23 February that the law was in conformity with the constitution, and mandated surgical castration for those convicted of raping a child under the age of 10. In the case of older children, judges are given some discretion regarding sentences. Human rights activists have argued that the new law violates Madagascar’s commitments under several international human rights treaties, including the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the Convention Against Torture.
Sources: Africa News, Haute Cour Constitutionnelle, Midi Madagasikara, Tribune Madagascar, Le Monde
December 2023
Incumbent President re-elected in election marked by opposition boycotts and low turnout
Madagascar’s presidential election was held on 16 November, resulting in a victory on the first ballot for incumbent President Andry Rajoelina. Ten of the twelve other candidates decided to boycott the election late the process, thus leaving their names on the ballots. Several legal challenges to the provisional results of the election were filed, but these were dismissed by the courts and on 2 December the High Constitutional Court declared Rajoelina the winner. The national election commission (Commission électorale nationale indépendante, CENI) reported turnout to be 46.4 per cent of the registered voters, down from 53.9 per cent in 2018. Rajoelina received 58.9 per cent of the votes, while the two leading opposition candidates, Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko and Marc Ravalomanana, received 14.4 and 12.1 per cent, respectively. There were no female candidates. An observer mission from the African Union noted that the election took place in a fraught political atmosphere ‘characterized by acts of violence,’ following a month of demonstrations, and that turnout was lower among women than men.
Sources: Commission électorale nationale indépendante, African Union, Reuters, Al Jazeera
October 2023
Election delayed by a week as opposition supporters clash with police
The High Constitutional Court of Madagascar ruled on 12 October that the first round of the presidential election would be delayed by one week (from 9 November to 16 November). The court did not provide a reason for the delay, but the capital city was the scene of regular clashes between opposition supporters and the police in the weeks before, as unauthorized marches broadly supporting 11 opposition candidates were met with tear gas. Outdoor demonstrations have been banned in Madagascar since April. During one of these incidents, former president (and current presidential candidate) Marc Ravalomanana sustained a minor injury. Incumbent President Andry Rajoelina is running for re-election, and opposition politicians interpret the restriction on demonstrations as favouring his campaign.
Sources: Reuters, Africanews (1), Africanews (2), Deutsche Welle, Jeune Afrique
April 2023
Political demonstrations banned seven months before the election
On 31 March, Madagascar’s Interior Minister announced a ban on political demonstrations in open public places, ordering that they be limited to enclosed spaces. This ban comes seven months before the next presidential election and is seen by critics of the government as part of a broader crackdown on dissent. Current President Andry Rajoelina is widely expected to run for re-election, and the ban has been interpreted by opposition parties as favouring him. On 4 April, an opposition party (Malagasy Miara-Miainga - MMM) was denied permission to hold a rally at a small stadium in Imito. The MMM party challenged the denial of permission for the rally at an administrative court, which then referred the case to the High Constitutional Court. No ruling on the case had yet been issued by the end of April.
Sources: Radio France Internationale (1), Al Jazeera, Midi Madagasikara, Radio France Internationale (2)
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