Madagascar

Madagascar is one of the poorest countries in the world. As of 2019, more than three-quarters of the population lived on less that two US dollars per day. The vast majority of the population is employed in agriculture, but this sector produces only a quarter of the GDP. The majority of the country’s GDP comes from services (including tourism, technology, and construction). Madagascar is extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including crop failures due to drought. In addition to the broader economic and political challenges the country faces, Madagascar’s already weak democracy has suffered declines in Media Integrity, Judicial Independence, and Civil Society Participation in recent years.

Madagascar is vast and diverse and the population includes 18 distinct ethnic groups. The most significant ethnic division is between the Merina people, who live predominantly in the central highlands, and the Côtier peoples who make up most of the balance of the population and inhabit the various coastal regions. Merina leaders had established an empire across the island prior to the French conquest in 1895, and were often recruited into the French colonial administration. This division between the people of the center and those of the coasts remains salient. However, within many of the ethnic groups, there is also a class division that resembles a caste system. In contemporary Malagasy politics, presidential candidates have tended to gain disproportionate levels of support from their own ethnic groups, making ethnicity an important consideration for candidates and an element in the establishment of political parties.

However, the larger challenge in recent Malagasy political history has been the orientation of electoral politics around a small number of ambitious personalities. Malagasy political parties have tended to have strong ethnic ties, to be dominated by a charismatic leader, and to be neopatrimonial in nature. Organizing politics through such parties has limited the consolidation of democracy in the country.

Democracy in Madagascar is fragile. High levels of inequality and dire poverty make the majority of the population vulnerable to changes in the country’s economic performance, and in the past economic crises have led to political crises like the 2009 coup d’etat. To maintain democracy and balance the strong powers of the president, Madagascar must strengthen Checks on Government. Particular attention should be paid to trends in Media Integrity and Judicial Independence, both of which have declined since 2018. The country’s performance in terms of Absence of Corruption and Predictable Enforcement is also very low, contributing to continuing difficulties in achieving economic development. Madagascar’s weak democracy faces some risk of breakdown in the next two years.