On 23 February, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied political and armed groups signed a charter in Nairobi aimed at establishing a parallel government in Sudan. Experts warned the formation of such a government would entrench the de facto partition of Sudan between the warring parties, with administrative control currently split between the Army-led government, the RSF and other armed groups. They suggested that this in turn could further destabilise the country and worsen the conflict, which has been characterised by large-scale ethnic and gender-based violence, attacks on civilians and critical civilian infrastructure, famine and allegations of atrocity crimes, including genocide. The charter’s signatories reportedly intend to form the government ‘within weeks.’

Update: On 3 March, the RSF and allied groups signed a ‘transitional constitution’ formally establishing the framework for a parallel government. The constitution outlines a secular, democratic and decentralized governance structure with a phased transitional period leading to elections, though no fixed timetable is provided. It reorganizes Sudan into federal, regional, and local levels, mandates military reforms, dissolves militias, and ensures equal citizenship, while granting regions self-determination rights if secularism and other conditions are not upheld.   

Sources: Sudan Founding Charter, Sudan Tribune, European Council on Foreign Relations, The Economist, Reuters (1), The Arab Weekly, Horn Review, Reuters (2)   

In February, Sudan’s Constitutional Document was amended by the country’s government, which is aligned with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and unilaterally changed the document in ways that entrench SAF power. The Constitutional Document had been signed in 2019, after the  popular revolution that removed president Omar al-Bashir, by the key actors involved in those events: the SAF, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) (with whom the SAF is now at war) and the civilian Forces of Freedom and Change coalition. It was intended to facilitate a transition to democracy. These constitutional amendments extend the transitional period by 39 months, eliminate all references to the RSF and SAF, increase army representation on the Sovereign Council (Sudan’s collective head of state) and expand the Sovereign Council’s powers, including over key appointments and policy decisions. The amendments also abolished a committee mandated to investigate a 2019 massacre carried out by the SAF. 

Sources: Sudan Tribune, The New Arab, Debanga Sudan

On 24 December, the Famine Review Committee (FRC) of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a global standard for food security, published a report confirming that Sudan’s famine had spread. In August, it had declared famine in the North Darfurian displacement camp of Zamzam, but its December report found that between October and November famine conditions also existed in at least two other camps in the state, as well as in the Western Nuba Mountains. It projected that by May 2025 famine will have reached an additional five areas and identified the ongoing war as a major driver of the food scarcity. The conflict has resulted in mass displacement, economic collapse and disruptions to food supply chains, and UN experts have accused the warring parties of obstructing humanitarian access. The Sudanese government responded to the report by suspending its participation in the IPC, accusing it of ‘issuing unreliable reports that undermine Sudan’s sovereignty and dignity.’   

Sources: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, International IDEA (1), International IDEA (2),  Reuters  

In October, the end of the rainy season precipitated an intensification of fighting in Sudan’s civil war and early reports indicated that it had exacted a heavy civilian toll. In North Darfur state, for example, dozens of people are thought to have been killed in attacks on displacement camps, hospitals and markets. At least 23 civilians died in an air strike on a market in the capital Khartoum, alleged to have been conducted by the Sudanese Armed Forces. In el-Gezira, a state in eastern-central Sudan, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) were reported to have carried out ethnically targeted attacks on at least thirty villages. According to the UN, these attacks resembled those perpetrated by the RSF in Darfur, and involved mass killings, sexual violence and looting. An estimated 46,700 people were displaced by the attacks in el-Gezira over the course of a single week.      

Sources: International Crisis Group, Yale University, Africa Confidential, New York Times, United Nations (1), United Nations (2), International IDEA  

On 1 August, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a global standard for food security, announced that its Famine Review Committee (FRC) had confirmed an ongoing famine in Zamzam camp, an internally displaced persons camp in Darfur. According to the FRC, famine conditions in Zamzam are highly likely to persist beyond October and that other areas of Sudan remain at risk of famine due to the ongoing conflict and limited humanitarian access. Zamzam is thought to be sheltering half a million people and is located on the outskirts of the North Darfurian city of El Fasher, that has for months been besieged by the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary force fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces. For a famine to be declared by the FRC, it has to determine that a sufficiently high proportion of a population in a specific area is suffering from extreme food scarcity. It is only the third time that it has made such a determination since its establishment in 2004.     

Sources:  Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (1), Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (2), Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (3), Famine Early Warning Systems Network