North Macedonia

Since North Macedonia declared independence from Yugoslavia in 1991, electoral politics have largely unfolded as a contest between the center-left Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) and the nationalist, center-right VMRO-DPMNE. The former is the direct descendant of the Yugoslav-era League of Communists of Macedonia, while the latter (founded in 1990) explicitly links itself to the nationalist revolutionary organization from the country’s Ottoman-era. A wiretapping scandal in 2015 implicated the government in unlawful activities and led to VMRO-DPMNE losing power in 2017 for the first time in more than a decade. Economic performance and corruption drive citizens’ top day-to-day political concerns, but at the macro level, politics in North Macedonia has been structured by the intersection of questions over national identity and the process of Euro-Atlantic integration. Through the early 2000s, North Macedonia was, of all the Yugoslav successor states, a leading contender to achieve EU and NATO accession. But a long-running dispute with Greece over the country’s name (Greece argued that ‘Macedonia’ without qualifiers implied irridentist claims to the Greek province of the same name) blocked progress and fostered political stagnation. A historic deal, signed in 2018, put the name dispute to bed, only for Bulgaria to raise its own set of ethnically-based objections to North Macedonia’s progress towards EU membership.  

These developments reflect the country’s struggle to achieve a comfortable consensus on national identity. North Macedonia is diverse, home to ethnic Macedonians—who make up the majority—and several minority communities, including Albanians (the largest minority group), Turks, Roma, Serbians, Bosniaks and Vlachs. Previous governments have attempted to assert an overtly nationalist Macedonian identity, despite apparent inconsistencies in desired historical narratives. More recent moves to strengthen inter-group relations have included the recognition of Albanian as an official language. This was an important step, especially in light of unresolved inter-ethnic tensions and a history of some violence. Progress has also occurred on women’s rights and LGBTQIA+ rights issues, although challenges remain, particularly with regards to the underrepresentation of women in positions of power and a rise in anti-LGBTQIA+ hate speech. 

In the years ahead, the Rule of Law factors should be closely watched, alongside the Access to Justice indicator. The continued presence of corruption in particular hampers economic performance and the overall business environment. Major ethnic divides, including ongoing ill-treatment of the Roma people, negatively impact both domestic politics and foreign relations with neighboring states. A firm commitment to resolving these issues will be necessary in order for North Macedonia to ascend to EU membership.