Bulgaria
Bulgaria is an upper-middle-income country, performing in the mid-range across all Global State of Democracy (GSoD) categories of democracy. It scores in the top 25 per cent of countries in several factors of Representation, Rights, and the Rule of Law. Over the last five years, Bulgaria has experienced significant improvements in both Access to Justice and Effective Parliament. Bulgaria’s economy is primarily based on services, but it also has a vibrant industrial sector focused on machine building, metal processing, and chemicals. At the same time, the country is seeing steady growth in the tourism and biotechnology fields.
Among the Warsaw Pact nations, Bulgaria was the Soviet Union’s most trusted ally; it had even applied to join the USSR on two occasions. In addition, the opposition to the Communist regime was, compared to that of neighboring countries, relatively weak. As a result of this history, former Communist officials continued to dominate the political scene throughout the 1990s. In 2001, former King Simeon II was elected Prime Minister of the country. His rise to power marked the arrival of populism and personalism on the Bulgarian political scene. The central political debates evolved as questions of nationalism versus European integration became more prominent. This development is further evidenced by the electoral success of the far-right, some of whom espouse a brand of nationalism that has been criticized for its exclusionary rhetoric. Some minority communities’ interests are explicitly represented by the Movement of Rights and Freedoms (DPS) party, despite rules against parties that operate on an ethnic basis. The presence of nationalist political rhetoric in Bulgaria has enflamed relations with North Macedonia and reopened questions regarding Russian influence in the country.
Further corroding Bulgarians’ political discourse is the endemic presence of corruption. According to a 2022 survey, Bulgaria is perceived to be the most corrupt EU member state. In 2021, the nation’s chief prosecutor did not initiate a single corruption case, and only 20 per cent of graft cases resulted in a conviction. While there are prospects for reform, these are tempered by frequent political upheaval. Widespread protests against corruption occurred in 2020 and indicate a desire by the population for a new way forward.
GSoD Indices data show that Bulgaria’s performance on gender equality has been consistently high for the past few decades. The adoption of the Law on Equality between Women and Men in 2016 has also contributed to some progress on gender equality. However, sexism and violence against women (and domestic violence) remain persistent and concerning, impacting women’s full and equal participation in the workforce and decision-making.
Looking ahead, it will be important to watch high political instability and fragmentation in the party system, which risks continuing to undermine prospects for reform. The political turmoil makes prospects for improvements in Rule of Law more remote. Also of import is the rapidly declining population growth rate, due to high emigration and low birth rates. The healthcare system is plagued by crises, and poverty remains widespread relative to other EU countries. Investment in key areas of human development will be key to countering political extremism and disincentivizing graft.
Monthly Event Reports
August 2023 | Parliament expands domestic violence law to apply beyond married couples
Following a brutal attack on an 18-year-old woman and subsequent mass protests, the parliament passed amendments to the Criminal Code and the Law on Protection from Domestic Violence in an extraordinary session by a vote of 144-58, with eight MPs abstaining. The changes introduce the term “intimate relationships,” expanding the legal framework beyond cases of marital domestic violence, although it remains limited to heterosexual relationships. The legislation was supported by the ruling coalition of Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB)/United Democratic Forces, the We Continue the Change/Democratic Bulgaria bloc, and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms. However, GERB joined the opposition parties, the far-right Vazrazhdane, the populist There Is Such a People (ITN), and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) in the proposal to include only relationships between men and women in the law. The law has drawn criticism from activists and experts for its exclusion of relationships shorter than 60 days.
July 2023 | Release of perpetrator of gender-based violence causes anger and protests
Protests against violence towards women, which are rare in the country, took place in different cities. In the capital, Sofia, approximately 5,000 protesters took to the streets. A brutal attack against an 18-year-old woman by her former partner, which took place on 26 June, made the headlines at the end of July, when it emerged that the perpetrator, 26-year-old Georgi Georgiev, was discharged on 5 July as the court classified the injuries he inflicted as “minor bodily injury,” despite the victim requiring 400 stitches for her wounds. Georgiev also had a prior criminal record and was already on probation. He remained free until 30 July when, following public pressure, authorities arrested him for death threats he had sent to the victim before the attack. The protests have shone light on the issue of gender-based violence in Bulgaria, which has not ratified the Istanbul Convention, an international treaty aimed at combating gender-based violence. A survey by the National Statistics Institute at the end of 2022 found that one third of women aged 18-29 said they had experienced physical, sexual or psychological violence from an intimate partner, while 20 per cent of those between 18 and 74 reported the same.
June 2023 | President signs decision to fire chief prosecutor Ivan Geshev
President Rumen Radev has approved the Supreme Justice Council’s (SJC) decision to dismiss the country’s top prosecutor, Ivan Geshev, halfway through his seven-year term. The decision follows a remark by Geshev, in which he referred to members of parliament opposing him as “political garbage”. SJC ruled that his remarks breached the Code of Ethical Behaviour of Bulgarian Magistrates and damaged the reputation of the judiciary. Civil society and the opposition have criticized Geshev for undermining judicial reforms due to close ties with politicians implicated in corruption and his failure to address high-profile corruption cases and money-laundering allegations against former prime minister Boyko Borisov and his allies. However, experts have said that the removal of Geshev is not an indication of judicial reform, but of a highly politicized judiciary.
May 2023 | Rotational coalition government breaks political stalemate
The opposing centrist parties, Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB)/United Democratic Forces, and the We Continue the Change/Democratic Bulgaria bloc (PP-DB) reached a coalition agreement on 22 May, which was voted on by the parliament in June. The parties have agreed on an 18-month “expert” cabinet, which will be led by rotating prime ministers. The solution comes after a period of political stalemate and five elections in the past two years. PP-DB, which had promised it would not enter a coalition with GERB, said the deal aimed at safeguarding the country's European future and addressing the risk posed by the “threat of timeless interim cabinets.” Nikolai Denkov from “We Continue the Change” will serve as the prime minister for the first nine months, while former EU commissioner Mariya Gabriel, GERB’s designate, will take over for the subsequent nine months. The main objectives of the government will be constitutional and judicial reforms, combatting high-level corruption, full-fledged EU membership, and reintroducing electronic voting to tackle electoral fraud.
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GSoD Indices Data 2013-2022
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