Belarus
Belarus is a landlocked country located in Eastern Europe, with low performance across all categories of the Global State of Democracy Framework. It is among the bottom 25 per cent of countries with regards to all factors of Representation, most aspects of the Rule of Law and Participation (bar Absence of Corruption and Electoral Participation), and some Rights components (Basic Welfare and Political Equality as exceptions). Belarus has seen significant declines over the past five years in Free Political Parties, Civil Liberties, Personal Integrity and Security, and Predictable Enforcement – amongst others – attributable to a pronounced crackdown on civil society and the media during the 2020 Presidential election and mass protests that ensued. Concurrently, Belarus performs in the top 25 per cent of countries in terms of Basic Welfare and Economic Equality, although the latter has seen significant negative declines over the past five years. Whilst an upper middle-income country, Belarus has largely maintained a state-dominated economic model and therefore avoided the consequences of rapid privatization, although its economy has become increasingly dependent on Russia.
Prior to World War I, the territory of Belarus fell under the control of neighbouring states, including the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the Russian Empire. Declaring itself an independent state in 1918, Belarus then became a republic of the Soviet Union from 1922 until its dissolution in 1991, with a three-year period spent under Nazi German occupation. Alyaksandr Lukashenka won the first post-Soviet presidential election in 1994, and has since presided over the country for more than three decades. No election following 1994 has been deemed by observers to be free or fair, with electoral conditions only worsening, and constitutional referendums held in 1996, 2004, and 2022 have led to the further consolidation of power in the hands of the president. As a consequence of this centralization, the primary political cleavage in Belarus is between a bloc of passive support – or toleration – of Lukashenka and his regime, and those who reject it. Those rejecting Lukashenka’s rule are subject to arbitrary arrest, torture, surveillance, and sexual violence, and are condemned under treason, extremism, and espionage charges. Over 1,000 individuals, ranging from journalists and human rights defenders to doctors and IT professionals, are considered political prisoners in Belarus, some of whom are held incommunicado. Seven political prisoners have died behind bars since 2021. Such actions by the Belarusian state amount to “crimes against humanity,” according to a group of independent experts appointed by the UN Human Rights Council. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have been living in exile since 2020, including the country’s opposition leaders.
Gender equality and LGBTQIA+ rights intersect with this authoritarian crackdown, yet women have and continue to play a vital role in the pro-democratic resistance against Lukashenka. The LGBTQIA+ community also faces documented censorship, discrimination, and intimidation, despite the legality of homosexuality.
Whilst previously playing a balancing act between Europe and Russia, Belarus has become diplomatically isolated and subject to sanctions following the 2020 presidential election and 2022 full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, and is increasingly economically and politically dependent on Russia. Its prospects for democratization are therefore largely tied to unpredictable regional dynamics, which Lukashenka has thus far capitalized on and used to bolster confidence in the Belarusian authorities. In light of this, and the expanding scope and scale of repression against both internal opposition and Belarusians in exile, declines in all categories of the Global State of Democracy Framework are likely to continue.
Last updated: May 2025
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
March 2026
Belarus releases 250 political prisoners
Belarusian authorities released 250 political prisoners as part of a US-brokered agreement that included the removal of US sanctions on the country’s financial sector and several state-linked potash companies. Of those released, 235 remained in Belarus while 15 were transferred to Lithuania. The group included prominent human rights defenders and opposition figures imprisoned following the regime’s crackdown on dissent after the disputed 2020 presidential election. The release is the largest since the crackdown began and may signal a slight easing of pressure on civil society. However, human rights organizations cautioned that convictions remain in place, and more than 1,100 political prisoners reportedly remain incarcerated.
December 2025
Authorities free 123 political prisoners in biggest release since 2020
Belarus freed 123 political prisoners on 13 December, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, opposition politician Maria Kolesnikova, and former presidential candidate Viktar Babaryka. The prisoners were reportedly released in exchange for the removal of United States sanctions on Belarusian potash exports. While political prisoners have been released before in small groups, this release is the largest in the country since the 2020 Belarusian election prompted the ongoing crackdown in the country. Many of the prisoners were immediately deported to Ukraine or Lithuania. According to Viasna Human Rights Center, 1,128 political prisoners remain in the country.
Sources: Viasna, British Broadcasting Corporation
April 2025
Report documents increase in punitive psychiatric confinement
The United Nations and independent human rights experts raised concerns over a report that Belarusian authorities have sentenced at least 33 people to punitive psychiatric confinement since 2020 as retaliation for government criticism or participation in public protests. The trials of those involved were conducted in secret and the psychiatric confinement is typically indefinite. Twenty-five of the 33 people remain in confinement, but no further information concerning their whereabouts is available. Political prisoners in such facilities can be forced to take medication or be subjected to electric shocks. The secrecy surrounding the cases means it is not possible to determine with certainty whether these transfers to close medical facilities were made for political or medical reasons. Belarus has used psychiatric confinement as a punishment for political activism in the past, but the report documents how the practice has been accelerated since the 2020 uprisings against President Alyaksandr Lukashenka.
Sources: United Nations Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights, Viasna, International Centre for Civil Initiatives
January 2025
Lukashenka reelected in presidential poll
Belarus held a presidential election on 26 January in which incumbent Alyaksandr Lukashenka won his seventh straight term. According to the Central Election Commission, Lukashenka won 87.5 per cent of the vote on 85.7 per cent turnout, up from 84.3 per cent in the previous election. The election took place in a repressive electoral and media environment without genuine opposition candidates on the ballot. Sergei Syrankov, who finished second with 3.2 per cent of the vote, endorsed Lukashenka before the election and campaigned on his behalf. Three other candidates received between 1.8 and 2.0 per cent of the vote. Observers have not judged any Belarusian election since 1994 to be free or fair, and no independent election observers took part in this iteration because the Belarusian government declined to invite sufficiently far in advance for observation missions to be organized.
Sources: Reuters, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, International IDEA, British Broadcasting Corporation
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Global ranking per category of democratic performance in 2025
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Factors of Democratic Performance Over Time
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