Belarus

Through the dominance of state-owned enterprises and preservation of much of the Soviet-era economic architecture, Belarus mostly avoided the consequences of rapid privatization and the growth of economic inequality characteristic of most post-Soviet states. President Lukashenka has long dominated Belarusian politics and, currently in his sixth term, is the longest-serving head of state in Europe. Lukashenka gradually consolidated his personal power through socioeconomic co-optation and violent, and at times deadly, persecution of all political opponents. Constitutional referendums held in 1996, 2004, and 2022 led to further consolidation of power in the hands of the president. As a consequence of Belarus’ centralization, the primary political cleavage has long been between a bloc of passive support – or toleration – of Lukashenka’s regime and those who reject it on a variety of political or economic grounds. Nevertheless, Belarus saw significant public protest following the disputed 2006 and 2010 presidential elections and against socioeconomic policies in 2017.

The sole exception to Belarus’ tightly managed economic history was in its IT sector, which saw rapid growth and international success in the 2010s. That success fueled the growth of a largely Lukashenka-skeptic urban middle class, which, together with independent trade unions, proved to be one of the key drivers of the months-long nationwide protests demanding the resignation of Lukashenka following the 2020 presidential election. Prior to the election, Lukashenka arrested his key political opponents and rejected their attempts to register their candidacies. Public support concentrated around the candidacy of the wife of one of the arrested candidates, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who contested the official results. Protesters numbered in the hundreds of thousands, and state responded with an unprecedented crackdown involving tens of thousands arbitrary arrests, torture, and a mass surveillance regime. All major opposition politicians and civil society leaders were either jailed or forced out of the country and independent media blocked and arrested. There are thousands of internationally recognized political prisoners in Belarus and tens of thousands of activists and citizens have fled the country since 2020. Neither the United States nor the European Union recognized the results, the latter imposing sanctions targeting responsible Belarusian individuals and companies. Globally, Belarus ranks high on gender equality, though gender gaps continue to exist in education, labour market and wage. GSoD Indices data show declines in gender equality performance over the past five years. Yet women’s roles in the resistance against Lukashenka has been vital, and women activists (in exile) continue to be key drivers in pro-democracy movements despite the challenging environment.

As a result of the protests and crackdown, Belarus is now diplomatically isolated from every country in the region, save Russia, and is becoming increasingly implicated in that country’s full-scale war on Ukraine.

Given its near-total dependence on Russia, Belarus’s political future is tied up with the unpredictable outcome of Russia’s war on Ukraine. In the absence of a sea change in regional politics, the ongoing declines in Representation, Rights and Rule of Law are likely to continue as the Lukashenka regime continues to expand the scope and scale of its repression to maintain control over the public.