Belarus
Belarus is a landlocked country located in Eastern Europe, with low performance across all categories of the Global State of Democracy Framework. It is among the bottom 25 per cent of countries with regards to all factors of Representation, most aspects of the Rule of Law and Participation (bar Absence of Corruption and Electoral Participation), and some Rights components (Basic Welfare and Political Equality as exceptions). Belarus has seen significant declines over the past five years in Free Political Parties, Civil Liberties, Personal Integrity and Security, and Predictable Enforcement – amongst others – attributable to a pronounced crackdown on civil society and the media during the 2020 Presidential election and mass protests that ensued. Concurrently, Belarus performs in the top 25 per cent of countries in terms of Basic Welfare and Economic Equality, although the latter has seen significant negative declines over the past five years. Whilst an upper middle-income country, Belarus has largely maintained a state-dominated economic model and therefore avoided the consequences of rapid privatization, although its economy has become increasingly dependent on Russia.
Prior to World War I, the territory of Belarus fell under the control of neighbouring states, including the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the Russian Empire. Declaring itself an independent state in 1918, Belarus then became a republic of the Soviet Union from 1922 until its dissolution in 1991, with a three-year period spent under Nazi German occupation. Alyaksandr Lukashenka won the first post-Soviet presidential election in 1994, and has since presided over the country for more than three decades. No election following 1994 has been deemed by observers to be free or fair, with electoral conditions only worsening, and constitutional referendums held in 1996, 2004, and 2022 have led to the further consolidation of power in the hands of the president. As a consequence of this centralization, the primary political cleavage in Belarus is between a bloc of passive support – or toleration – of Lukashenka and his regime, and those who reject it. Those rejecting Lukashenka’s rule are subject to arbitrary arrest, torture, surveillance, and sexual violence, and are condemned under treason, extremism, and espionage charges. Over 1,000 individuals, ranging from journalists and human rights defenders to doctors and IT professionals, are considered political prisoners in Belarus, some of whom are held incommunicado. Seven political prisoners have died behind bars since 2021. Such actions by the Belarusian state amount to “crimes against humanity,” according to a group of independent experts appointed by the UN Human Rights Council. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have been living in exile since 2020, including the country’s opposition leaders.
Gender equality and LGBTQIA+ rights intersect with this authoritarian crackdown, yet women have and continue to play a vital role in the pro-democratic resistance against Lukashenka. The LGBTQIA+ community also faces documented censorship, discrimination, and intimidation, despite the legality of homosexuality.
Whilst previously playing a balancing act between Europe and Russia, Belarus has become diplomatically isolated and subject to sanctions following the 2020 presidential election and 2022 full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, and is increasingly economically and politically dependent on Russia. Its prospects for democratization are therefore largely tied to unpredictable regional dynamics, which Lukashenka has thus far capitalized on and used to bolster confidence in the Belarusian authorities. In light of this, and the expanding scope and scale of repression against both internal opposition and Belarusians in exile, declines in all categories of the Global State of Democracy Framework are likely to continue.
Last updated: May 2025
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
January 2025
Lukashenka reelected in presidential poll
Belarus held a presidential election on 26 January in which incumbent Alyaksandr Lukashenka won his seventh straight term. According to the Central Election Commission, Lukashenka won 87.5 per cent of the vote on 85.7 per cent turnout, up from 84.3 per cent in the previous election. The election took place in a repressive electoral and media environment without genuine opposition candidates on the ballot. Sergei Syrankov, who finished second with 3.2 per cent of the vote, endorsed Lukashenka before the election and campaigned on his behalf. Three other candidates received between 1.8 and 2.0 per cent of the vote. Observers have not judged any Belarusian election since 1994 to be free or fair, and no independent election observers took part in this iteration because the Belarusian government declined to invite sufficiently far in advance for observation missions to be organized.
Sources: Reuters, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, International IDEA, British Broadcasting Corporation
December 2024
Anti-government Belarusians at risk of family separation
A decree published by Belarus’ Council of Ministers on 30 December will allow the authorities to remove children from the custody of parents who have distributed “extremist” content, “involved a child in antisocial behavior” or engaged in “hooliganism”. All three charges have been commonly used in political cases since the mass protests which followed the 2020 presidential election in the country and are likely intended to dissuade Belarusians from similar actions in advance of this year’s presidential election on 26 January. The legal definition of extremist content is vague and thousands of web pages are legally classified as such, including nearly all independent Belarusian media outlets and foreign media outlets like Deutsche Welle and the Russian-language Current Time. Children will not be immediately removed from parental custody, but a court order is not required for authorities to do so.
Sources: Pozirk Online, Council of Ministers, OHCHR
February 2024
Elections reach new low in Belarus
Belarus parliamentary and local elections held on 25 February were the first contest since the massive crackdown on all forms of political expression and activism that followed the 2020 elections. Only parties loyal to President Alyaksandr Lukashenka were permitted to participate and local activists reported that public employees were being forced to take part. Nobel laureate Viasna Human Rights Centre said elections were held under “conditions of incessant repression; in the virtual absence of freedom of expression, peaceful assembly and association; in a climate of total fear and political purge.” No election in independent Belarus has ever been judged free or fair, and for the first time the country refused to permit international observers to attend.
Sources: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Associated Press, Viasna, Belta, Belarusian Election Commission (Telegram)
Belarus holds parliamentary and local elections
Belarus held parliamentary elections on 25 February for 110 seats in the lower house and 12,000 seats on local councils. The opposition boycotted or was refused registration, meaning all 110 MPs are members of parties loyal to President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. 36 of 110 MPs in the incoming parliament are women, down from 44 in the previous parliament. The Election Commission reported 73 per cent turnout, which could not be independently verified. No independent election observers were present.
Sources: Deutsche Welle, Associated Press
November 2023
Belarusians must receive permission to move abroad
New regulations published on 20 November say that Belarusians who plan to leave the country to take up permanent residence elsewhere must now receive permission from the Citizenship and Migration Department before departing. Citizens were previously asked to register at a consulate. Applicants must now also file a wide range of personal documentation, including relatives’ contact details, and officials will check if the applicant is barred from leaving the country for any reason.
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Global ranking per category of democratic performance in 2023
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