United States of America
The United States of America (the US) is a high-performing democracy. With the world’s largest economy and largest military (by expenditure), the US plays a significant economic and geopolitical role globally. The US’s two-party system is well-entrenched and stimulates nationally competitive elections, though a long history of gerrymandering has resulted in minimally competitive legislative districts. Electoral participation has recently been invigorated by the high-stakes political environment, leading to unprecedented turnout since 2018. The US has historically had robust protections for its democratic institutions, the rule of law, and fundamental rights. Over the last five years, however, it has experienced significant declines in Civil Liberties, Social Rights and Equality, Judicial Independence and Effective Parliament, and in Predictable Enforcement over the last ten. These declines can be traced to long unresolved problems, including severe socioeconomic inequality and racial injustice and a weakened legislature that has struggled to check executive action, especially between 2016 and 2020.
Although one of the world’s wealthiest countries, four decades of increasing income inequality has produced a wealth gap where the top 10 per cent of citizens hold 70 per cent of the wealth. Indigenous peoples in the US, especially those residing on reservations, often face stark barriers to economic opportunities and experience the highest poverty rate among minority groups. America’s long history of African slavery, racial segregation and discrimination continues to be reflected in the racial wealth gap and the disproportionate rate of Black incarceration. The country’s racial wealth gap is also expanding, and race issues have gained new political salience in recent years, especially around high-profile police killings of Black civilians. In turn, the US-based Black Lives Matter movement gained international attention, and advocates of racial justice increasingly call for reparations.
In recent years, national politics have been dominated by the unevenly distributed socioeconomic fallout of the 1990s rollback of the welfare state and the rise of China, weak gun control and widespread mass shootings, and the formal end of abortion rights. The weakening of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 (VRA) and voter suppression through discriminatory laws and partisan gerrymandering have also threatened electoral integrity for well over a decade. The 2016 election, which empowered a populist movement, coincided with declines in Checks on Government and Impartial Administration driven by drops in Effective Parliament, Media Integrity, Absence of Corruption, and Predictable Enforcement. Former President Donald Trump’s refusal to concede defeat in the 2020 election led to a violent riot at the US Capitol on 6 January 2021 and laid the groundwork for an extreme-right political movement that denies the viability, without evidence, of the American electoral system.
There are several key indicators to watch in the coming years. While the 2022 midterm elections were free and fair, the election-denial precedent and persistent issues with voter disenfranchisement and gerrymandering could severely impact Representation. The country is increasingly polarized, with levels of political violence at the highest since the 1970s. The Social Group Equality factor is also important to watch, with emphasis on the country’s racialized politics and immigration crisis. It will also turn on gender equality, even as the gendered effects of the COVID-19 pandemic fade, due to renewed challenges to women’s reproductive rights and autonomy. It will also be important to watch Personal Integrity and Security as gun violence continues to threaten every day security around the country.
Monthly Event Reports
February 2024 | Homeland Security Secretary is impeached
By a narrow vote of 214 to 213, the House of Representatives impeached Alejandro Mayorkas, Homeland Security Secretary, for allegedly refusing to comply with immigration legislation and violating public confidence. It is the first time an incumbent member of cabinet is impeached. Those voting to impeach argue he has failed to secure the border with Mexico and mismanaged the growing influx of migrants. Three Republicans joined House Democrats in voting against the impeachment, considering that actions of the Homeland Secretary did not meet the threshold of “high crimes and misdemeanors” established by the Constitution. Critics consider the measure to be a partisan prosecution of the government’s immigration policies. Analysts further consider this could be a dangerous precedent for the future weaponization of impeachment to exert political pressure in cases of partisan disagreement over policy.
December 2023 | Former President Trump is excluded from primary ballots in Colorado and Maine
The Supreme Court of the state of Colorado and the State Secretary of Maine ruled that Former President Trump is ineligible to run for president and has been excluded from appearing on primary election ballots in those states because of his role in the efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. They argue the applicability of the Constitution’s 14th Amendment, which rules out the ability of officials to hold office if they have participated in an “insurrection”. Because the decisions in Colorado and Maine have been legally challenged, as of early January Trump’s exclusion has been suspended. The Colorado case will be considered by the Supreme Court, with oral arguments due to take place in early February. Other states that have been asked to exclude Trump from primary ballots, such as Illinois, have declined to do so.
November 2023 | Supreme Court adopts a code of conduct for the first time
Amidst controversy over alleged irregularities in the financial disclosures of some of its members, and after calls from lawmakers and critics, the Supreme Court adopted a code of conduct on 13 November. According to the Court, this constitutes a codification of rules already in practice that aim to address the “misunderstanding” that the Supreme Court Justices “regard themselves as unrestricted by any ethics rules”. Analysts have welcomed the adoption of this code of conduct, however many expressed concerns for the code’s weak rules regarding the recusal of justices in specific cases, as well as the fact that the code does not foresee an enforcement mechanism.
October 2023 | New Speaker of the House elected after McCarthy is ousted
On 3 October, Kevin McCarthy was voted out as Speaker of the House, at the initiative of far-right members of his own party. McCarthy’s leadership was challenged by eight Republican Party members, who argued he had compromised the party’s values by negotiating with Democrats in votes to avoid a government shutdown and prevent default over the government’s debt. Democrats voted as well to remove McCarthy from the leadership position, leaving the speakership vacant for over three weeks, and freezing work in the House of Representatives. On 25 October, Mike Johnson was elected Speaker, after several failed bids by fellow Republicans and internal division. Johnson is considered a conservative hard-liner, who notably supported efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Polls show that public confidence in the House has wavered, with a majority of Americans considering that the vacancy in the speakership negatively impacted the government’s functions.
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GSoD Indices Data 2013-2022
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