Republic of Moldova

Moldova was, up until 1991, part of the Soviet Union. In the three decades since independence, the country has undergone a slow and troubled transition to democracy. Moldova has struggled especially with issues of corruption, abuse of power, and state capture. From 2013 to 2019, the country was under the effective control of oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc, who used state power to siphon off $1 billion from Moldova’s three largest banks. As corruption came to be seen as a significant roadblock hindering economic growth, it became one of the most dominant issues in the country’s politics. In successive elections in 2020 and 2021, Moldovans voted in strong numbers to elect pro-European Union (EU), anti-corruption reformers in President Maia Sandu and her respective Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS).

Moldova is an ethnically diverse state with clear divides between pro-EU and pro-Russia sentiments. The separatist enclave of Transnistria is composed primarily of Russian speakers who favour close ties to Moscow, and this territory has been a frequent source of tension and conflict over the years. Pro-Russian sentiment is also widespread in the autonomous territory of Gagauzia. While ethnic Moldovans account for over 75 per cent of the population, there is significant disagreement as to whether their language and identity should be called Moldovan or Romanian. Historically, Moldova was part of Romania, and even today many Moldovans hold dual nationality. Large numbers of Moldovans favour reunification with Romania, and this number has grown in recent years.

Moldova is a country in transition, and its progress in recent years coexists with major challenges. Given the governing party’s declared commitment to the rule of law and anti-corruption reforms, improvements in Representative Government, Checks on Government, and Impartial Administration can be expected to continue over the next five years. In 2022 Moldova gained EU candidate status, although the road to membership is expected to be long. Two ongoing events threaten to unravel a tenuous progress. The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine has further enflamed tensions with Transnistria and leaves Moldovan statehood in a precarious situation, as well as impacting basic welfare. Furthermore, high emigration rates and poor infrastructure hamper economic growth, in turn making the work of combatting graft and corruption more difficult.