Pakistan
Pakistan performs at the mid-range level in two Global State of Democracy categories - Representation and Participation - and in the low range in Rights and the Rule of Law. It falls among the bottom 25 per cent of the world in several factors, including Basic Welfare, Gender Equality, Personal Integrity and Security, and Freedom of Religion, while in the top 25 per cent in Inclusive Suffrage. Over the past five years, Pakistan has experienced a significant decline in Free Political Parties. Pakistan’s lower middle-income economy relies mainly on services (wholesale and retail), agriculture, and industry, and suffers from high levels of government and external debt. Poor education and literacy rates as well as weak governance and corruption are also significant challenges.
Pakistan was borne out of a hastily drawn and violent partition from British India in 1947. The Muslim-majority state struggled with nation-building, and has experienced three spells of military dictatorship over three decades – the most recent of which ended in 2008. Even during democratic rule, which frequently alternated between family dynasties, the military has retained its presence. Further difficulties emanate from political instability, with no prime minister having ever served a full term.
Political leaders have exploited religious and ethnic cleavages, with Pakistan having one of the highest levels of social hostilities involving religion. Blasphemy laws, which predominantly affect Muslims, carry the death penalty and encourage vigilantism. These laws also impact the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community (deemed by the Constitution of Pakistan to be non-Muslims) and non-Muslim minorities. Ethnopolitical cleavages exist between the state and various ethnic groups, and between and within ethnic groups (Muhajirs, Pashtuns, Sindhis, and Baluchs). Nationalist insurgency from separatists in Pakistan’s Balochistan Province adds further complexity, which Pakistani authorities have reportedly responded to with enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings. Moreover, the forced return of hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees and undocumented migrants has drawn international criticism.
Relations with and perceived threats from India are consistent political issues. War has broken out between Pakistan and India four times, three of which were over the disputed Kashmir region, where tensions persist. Terrorism further complicates the security picture. The Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ended a ceasefire agreement with the Pakistani government in 2022, with physical insecurity and tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan rising as the latter is accused of sheltering the TTP, and democratic progress hindering as a result.
Women and girls in Pakistan face multiple barriers, perpetuated by a highly patriarchal society, regressive social norms and gender stereotypes, impacting their right to health, education, employment and political participation. Particularly striking is the severe gender gap in voting and access to finance – the latter aggravating chronic poverty. Furthermore, despite the passing of the Transgender Rights Bill in 2018, the ruling by the Federal Shariah Court striking down provisions in the bill is seen as a major setback to LGBTQIA+ rights.
Climate change is an underlying political issue in Pakistan. Set to experience rates of warming ‘considerably above the global average’, climate change has the potential to exacerbate existing challenges, as seen in the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and floods of 2010, 2011, 2022, and 2024.
Looking ahead, it will be important to watch Representation and Rights – considering the military’s continuing influence in Pakistani politics and increasing repression of protests, including through Internet shutdowns. Amid a deepening governance crisis, it is necessary to monitor the Rule of Law in Pakistan, as its increasingly assertive Supreme Court predominantly acts as a mediator of political conflict. Lastly, as one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change, it is necessary to watch how Pakistan responds to citizens’ concerns and mitigates its impacts – including its potential to inhibit improvements in Basic Welfare.
Last Updated: June 2024
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August 2024
Social media ban amid internet shutdown and firewall concerns
The social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter) has been banned for six months, with the government citing national security concerns since the February general elections. The Sindh High Court is hearing multiple petitions against the ban, with rights experts questioning its legal grounding. Pakistani users have resorted to using virtual private networks (VPNs) to circumvent the block. Simultaneously, businesses and rights activists have decried plummeting internet speeds affecting WhatsApp and other internet services, which, according to media reports, have dropped by 40 per cent. Digital rights experts have criticized the ban and internet disruptions as a violation of citizens’ right to free speech, with some industry experts noting that Pakistan is testing a firewall security system to monitor network traffic and control online spaces. The government and telecommunication authorities have provided conflicting responses behind the disruptions, citing a faulty undersea cable, a “web management system” upgrade to deal with cyber security threats and the overuse of VPNs. The conflicting responses have prompted an Islamabad High Court hearing on the matter set for 3 September.
Sources: Amnesty International, The New York Times, Dawn (1), The Diplomat, Dawn (2), The Express Tribune, VOA News
July 2024
Supreme Court rules Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party eligible for reserved seats
On 12 July, the Supreme Court declared that former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), was entitled to its share of reserved seats in the national and provincial assemblies. Pakistan’s National Assembly has 70 reserved seats (60 for women and 10 for minorities) that are distributed among parties based on their performance in the general election. The verdict will likely see more than 20 seats go to PTI-backed candidates in the National Assembly, significantly altering the balance of power and depriving the ruling coalition of a two-thirds majority. Ahead of the February election, PTI candidates had to run as independents after losing their party status and electoral symbol due to a legal case. Following the election, an Election Commission order, upheld by a lower court, barred these candidates from reserved seats. The SC decision has now reversed this, stating that the commission misinterpreted a previous verdict on PTI's electoral symbol.
Sources: Al Jazeera, Dawn, International IDEA
Government announces plans to ban Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)
On 14 July, Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar announced that the government is seeking to ban former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s political party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) on the grounds of inciting violent protests last year and leaking classified information. The announcement comes days after a court overturned several of Khan’s previous convictions, as well as a Supreme Court decision declaring PTI eligible for reserved seats in the national and provincial assemblies. In July, it was further revealed that a United Nations panel declared that Khan’s detention was arbitrary and in violation of international law, calling for his immediate release. The panel noted that Khan’s legal woes were part of a larger campaign of repression against him and his PTI party. Political analysts and rights bodies note that the decision to ban PTI appears politically motivated and an act of “political desperation.” It remains to be seen if and how the government will move forward with the ban.
Sources: Al Jazeera, The Express Tribune, Brookings, The Express Tribune, OHCHR
Government authorizes intelligence agency to intercept and trace calls
On 8 July, the government formally granted the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) the authority to intercept and trace citizens’ calls and messages in the “interest of national security.” Opposition leaders and watchdog agencies have raised concerns about the constitutionality of this decision, citing potential privacy violations and the risk of the legal authorization being misused for political ends. Critics argue that the authorization could further entrench the military-run ISI’s influence in national politics. Legal experts note that although this practice is not new, it will now continue under legal sanction. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan stated that “…this measure will invariably be used to clamp down on political dissent through means of blackmail, harassment, and intimidation.”
May 2024
Punjab government passes controversial defamation bill
On 20 May, the Punjab Provincial Assembly passed the Punjab Defamation Act of 2024, establishing special tribunals to handle fake news allegations with fines of up to 3 million Pakistani Rupees (approximately USD 10,750) without needing proof of damage or loss. The law permits tribunals to suspend or block the social media account or website on which the alleged defamatory content was posted – a move coinciding with Pakistan’s intermittent blocking of X (formerly Twitter) since February. Press freedom advocates and rights bodies have criticized the bill for its severe penalties and the potential for misuse against government critics, calling for its withdrawal and citing threats to press freedom. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan has raised concern that the bill was passed in a rushed manner with no meaningful consultation with civil society and media stakeholders. The Act has been challenged in the Lahore High Court, with petitions filed mere hours after it was signed into law.
Sources: Dawn, International Federation of Journalists, The Diplomat
February 2024
General election delivers hung parliament
Pakistan held its general election on 8 February to elect representatives for the National Assembly and the prime minister. Preliminary election results show that independent candidates won 101 of the 336 National Assembly seats, the majority of which are affiliated with jailed ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), headed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, came in second with 75 seats, and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) secured 54 seats. With no single party securing an outright majority, the formation of a government remained uncertain, leaving the decision on the next prime minister in limbo. On 13 February, it was announced Sharif’s PML-N would form a coalition with PPP and other junior parties, allowing them to gain a simple majority - with Shehbaz Sharif nominated to resume the premiership. Voter turnout was 47.8 per cent, down from 51.9 per cent in 2018. Despite a record number of women registered to vote, the turnout for women voters remained low. A record 12 women secured seats in the National Assembly, up from 8 elected in the previous election. The election was marred by controversy and violence, including allegations of electoral fraud, poll rigging, internet disruptions, and mobile service suspensions due to two separate bomb blasts near election candidates’ offices on the eve of the election. The significant delay in announcing election results also fuelled suspicions of political engineering.
Sources: Election Commission of Pakistan, Al Jazeera, Dawn, FAFEN, Pakistan Today
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