Pakistan

Pakistan was borne out of a hastily drawn and violent partition from British India, the legacy of which continues to haunt the country. Partition presented the challenge of nation-building without the notion of a national community and accordingly, identity became based on being a majority-Muslim state. Political leaders have exploited religious and ethnic cleavages so that they today demarcate politics in Pakistan, a country which has one of the highest levels of social hostilities involving religion. Although Islam is the state religion, there remain tensions between parts of the Sunni Muslim majority and Shia minority, and towards other Islamic sects. Blasphemy laws, which predominantly affect Muslims, carry a punishment of the death penalty and encourage discrimination and vigilantism. These laws also impact members of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community (deemed by the Constitution of Pakistan to be non-Muslims) and non-Muslim minorities, including Hindus and Christians. Ethnopolitical cleavages exist between the state and various ethnic groups, and between and within ethnic groups. Groups include the Muhajirs, Pashtuns and Sindhis, whilst insurgency from separatists in Pakistan’s Balochistan province adds further complexity.

Ensuring state survival in the immediate aftermath of independence elevated perceptions of security threats, particularly vis-a-vis India. This carved and gradually entrenched the military’s role as a protector of order and stability. War has broken out between Pakistan and India four times, three of which were over the disputed Kashmir region, where tensions persist. Terrorism further complicates the security picture. The involvement of Pakistan in the Afghan conflict has fuelled instability in the border regions within which the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) operate. Whilst terrorism is on the decline, the TTP have claimed responsibility for attacks on security forces and civilians, bringing human and economic costs and undermining support for democratic values in affected areas.

Looking forward, the GSoDI attributes to watch are Representative Government, Impartial Administration and Fundamental Rights. The military’s underlying presence in the political landscape of Pakistan is unlikely to subside; to the contrary it has historically been during moments of crisis that the military assumes more visible power. Amid a deepening economic and governance crisis and rising sectarian violence, how events unfold may be critical to monitor. This includes how power balances with an increasingly assertive Supreme Court that acts mostly as a mediator of political conflict rather than a consistent defender of the constitution. Climate change presents a further threat to democratization. Pakistan is set to experience rates of warming ‘considerably above the global average’, with the potential to exacerbate existing political, economic and security challenges, as seen in the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and floods of 2010, 2011, and 2022.