Estonia

Estonian society is characterized by a newly arising value cleavage. Major Estonian parties did not differ greatly from each other on the conservative-liberal nexus for decades. However, stronger polarization has appeared recently. As in the rest of Europe, the populist radical right is gaining influence, due to the rise of cultural divides. Issues such as 'family values' and immigration are increasingly salient. Another important social divide in Estonia is of an ethnic nature: Estonia has a large Russian-speaking minority (around 25 per cent of the population), and democratization in Estonia was strongly ethnicized because of the country’s prior lack of independence and the repressed national identity during Nazi and Soviet occupations. During the transition, Estonia introduced assertive naturalization policies to assimilate the Russian-speaking minority. However, this led to deep political and economic inequalities, such as unequal electoral participation and residential segregation between Estonians and the Russian-speaking minority. There is also contestation when it comes to political memory: while many Estonians consider the period under the USSR as occupation, many of the Russian-speaking minority regard the events after WWII as a liberation of the country. Despite these factors, ethnic relations are not politicized, with Estonian conservative parties attracting a sizeable part of Russian-speaking voters. This plays a role in defusing ethnic-based mobilization.

Estonia is unlikely to experience democratic backsliding or breakdown in the years to come. The country's performance in the Civil Liberties sub-attribute should be closely monitored, however, in light of recent changes in the political landscape. If the trend of rising populism continues in Estonia, it could foreshadow ideologically driven violations of certain democratic norms, such as limitations on reproductive rights and on freedoms of the LGBTQIA+ community. Another sub-attribute to monitor is Clean Elections. Given the increasingly tense relations between Estonia and Russia, Estonian elections might once again be a target for foreign interference. However, Estonia's digital democracy has thus far proved resilient against previous attempts to subvert it.