Guinea-Bissau
Guinea-Bissau is a low-income country with low-range performance on all factors of the GSoDI framework except Participation, where it scores in the mid-range. The country ranks amongst the bottom 25 per cent of countries in Representation, Rights, and Rule of Law. Over the past five years, the country’s performance has experienced sharp declines in Credible Elections, Elected Government and Effective Parliament, following recent political instability. Guinea-Bissau’s economy is largely dependent on agriculture, fishing and other subsistence-level activity. Cashew nuts are the country’s main export and source of 90-98 per cent of its export income.
Present day Guinea-Bissau has been occupied for at least a millennium and, between the 16th and 19th centuries, formed part of the powerful Kaabu, a federation of kingdoms. It was gradually colonized by Portugal from the 15th century and was initially administered as part of Cabo Verde, before becoming a separate colony in 1879. In 1956, activists from Guinea-Bissau and Cabo Verde founded the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), which led a guerilla war against colonial rule starting in 1963.
In the decades following the country’s 1974 independence, Guinea-Bissau was ruled by the PAIGC under a single-party socialist government until political reforms led to a multi-party model. Still, even under single party rule there was political instability within PAIGC, culminating in a military coup by General João Bernardo Vieira in 1980. Vieira ruled the country until 1999 and again from 2005 until his death in 2009. Guinea-Bissau experienced a series of coups and counter-coups, four of which were successful, with power regularly shifting between military leaders and civilian politicians. In 1998, a short civil war broke out following an attempted coup, further destabilizing the country and hindering the development of democratic institutions.
More recently, coup attempts in 2022 and 2023 failed to unseat President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, who won a contested election in 2020 after an earlier period of political crisis. In the wake of both coup attempts, Embaló dissolved the opposition-held parliament, heightening political tensions and stymieing renewal of the increasingly dysfunctional National Electoral commission and Supreme Court. The government have since prevented parliament from reconvening in full and has delayed the 2024 legislative and presidential elections, prolonging the instability and undermining public trust in democratic institutions. It has also restricted civic space, banning and repressing demonstrations and censoring the media.
The population includes at least ten minority groups, the largest of which (the Balanta and the Fula) comprise approximately 30 percent and 20 percent of the population, respectively. While ethnic differences were minimized during the independence process in favor of an image of unity, political campaigns since 2019 have exploited these differences, leading to polarization. Gender inequality is acute despite a constitutional guarantee of equality, and women face high levels of poverty and gender-based violence and female genital mutilation is prevalent. Compared to neighboring countries, LGBTQIA+ people face fewer restrictions. Economic inequality and poverty rates are high in Guinea-Bissau, with poverty particularly widespread in rural areas.
Effective Parliament and Credible Elections have been negatively impacted by the dissolutions of the parliament in 2022 and 2023 and should be monitored going forward. The relationship between the executive and the legislature will be a key indicator of democratic health in the next years, particularly in the aftermath of the upcoming 2025 elections.
Last Updated: May 2025
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
February 2025
Supreme Court rules on presidential mandate amid election delay
On 3 February, Guinea-Bissau’s Supreme Court ruled that President Umaro Sissoco Embaló’s mandate expires on 4 September, contradicting opposition claims that it ended on 27 February. The court based its decision on the date it officially confirmed Embaló as president in 2020, while the opposition argues his term should be counted from 26 February 2020, when he staged his own inauguration in a Bissau hotel. On 23 February, the government announced that both presidential and parliamentary elections—originally set for November 2024—would be held on 30 November 2025. Opposition groups accused Embaló of attempting to extend his rule beyond the legal term limit and called for a nationwide strike on 27 February, though turnout was low. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the United Nations (UN) attempted mediation between 23 and 28 February but failed to reach a consensus on the electoral calendar.
Sources: International IDEA, Reuters, International Crisis Group, Africa Confidential
November 2024
Elections postponed indefinitely
On 4 November, Guinea-Bissau's President Umaro Sissoco Embaló announced the indefinite suspension of legislative elections originally scheduled for 24 November. Citing logistical and financial constraints, the president argued that the country was unprepared to hold a credible vote. Critics, however, viewed the move as a strategy to prolong his administration’s tenure and avoid political accountability. The country has been without a parliament since December 2023, when President Embaló dissolved the National Assembly (Assembleia Nacional Popular) following an alleged coup attempt.
Update: On 23 February 2025, President Umaro Sissoco Embaló announced that parliamentary and presidential elections would take place on 30 November 2025.
Sources: Jeune Afrique, Business Day, News 24, Punch, News Central, International IDEA, Reuters, International Crisis Group
December 2023
President dissolves legislature following alleged coup attempt
Guinea-Bissau is again without a functioning legislature, only six months after the most recent elections. President Umaro Sissoco Embaló issued a decree on 4 December ordering the National Assembly (Assembleia Nacional Popular) dissolved, following a violent confrontation between the elements of the presidential guard and the National Guard that the President described as an attempted coup d’état. The June election was won by the opposition coalition PAI-Terra Ranka, led by the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (Partido Africano para a Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde, PAIGC), resulting in a partisan division between the President and the cabinet. The incident that triggered this decree involved the arrest of two members of the cabinet on charges of corruption, and an attempt on the part of members of the National Guard to free them. President Embaló had also dissolved the previous legislature in February 2022 following an attempted coup.
Sources: Africa News, Radio France Internationale, France24
June 2023
Legislative elections give majority to opposition coalition
Guinea-Bissau held legislative elections in June, more than a year after President Umaro Sissoco Embaló ordered the legislature to be dissolved following an investigation into an attempted coup d’état. The election gave the opposition coalition of PAI-Terra Ranka, led by the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (Partido Africano para a Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde, PAIGC), a majority in the legislature as it took 54 of the 102 seats. President Embaló’s Madem-G15 party won 29 seats. The opposition victory likely means that President Embaló’s initiative to amend the constitution to move toward a presidential system will not move forward. Election observers from the African Union and Economic Community of West African States expressed satisfaction with the conduct of the election. The election was a step back for gender equality in Guinea-Bissau, as only 11 women were elected (down from 13 in the last election) despite a gender quota that requires that at least 36 per cent of the members of the legislature are women.
Sources: Comissão Nacional de Eleições da Guiné-Bissau, African Union, Deutsche Welle, Reuters, AfricaNews, Radio France Internationale
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