Guinea-Bissau
Guinea-Bissau is a low-income country with low-range performance on all factors of the GSoDI framework except Participation, where it scores in the mid-range. The country ranks amongst the bottom 25 per cent of countries in Representation, Rights, and Rule of Law. Over the past five years, the country’s performance has experienced sharp declines in Credible Elections, Elected Government and Effective Parliament, following recent political instability. Guinea-Bissau’s economy is largely dependent on agriculture, fishing and other subsistence-level activity. Cashew nuts are the country’s main export and source of 90-98 per cent of its export income.
Present day Guinea-Bissau has been occupied for at least a millennium and, between the 16th and 19th centuries, formed part of the powerful Kaabu, a federation of kingdoms. It was gradually colonized by Portugal from the 15th century and was initially administered as part of Cabo Verde, before becoming a separate colony in 1879. In 1956, activists from Guinea-Bissau and Cabo Verde founded the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), which led a guerilla war against colonial rule starting in 1963.
In the decades following the country’s 1974 independence, Guinea-Bissau was ruled by the PAIGC under a single-party socialist government until political reforms led to a multi-party model. Still, even under single party rule there was political instability within PAIGC, culminating in a military coup by General João Bernardo Vieira in 1980. Vieira ruled the country until 1999 and again from 2005 until his death in 2009. Guinea-Bissau experienced a series of coups and counter-coups, four of which were successful, with power regularly shifting between military leaders and civilian politicians. In 1998, a short civil war broke out following an attempted coup, further destabilizing the country and hindering the development of democratic institutions.
More recently, coup attempts in 2022 and 2023 failed to unseat President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, who won a contested election in 2020 after an earlier period of political crisis. In the wake of both coup attempts, Embaló dissolved the opposition-held parliament, heightening political tensions and stymieing renewal of the increasingly dysfunctional National Electoral commission and Supreme Court. The government have since prevented parliament from reconvening in full and has delayed the 2024 legislative and presidential elections, prolonging the instability and undermining public trust in democratic institutions. It has also restricted civic space, banning and repressing demonstrations and censoring the media.
The population includes at least ten minority groups, the largest of which (the Balanta and the Fula) comprise approximately 30 percent and 20 percent of the population, respectively. While ethnic differences were minimized during the independence process in favor of an image of unity, political campaigns since 2019 have exploited these differences, leading to polarization. Gender inequality is acute despite a constitutional guarantee of equality, and women face high levels of poverty and gender-based violence and female genital mutilation is prevalent. Compared to neighboring countries, LGBTQIA+ people face fewer restrictions. Economic inequality and poverty rates are high in Guinea-Bissau, with poverty particularly widespread in rural areas.
Effective Parliament and Credible Elections have been negatively impacted by the dissolutions of the parliament in 2022 and 2023 and should be monitored going forward. The relationship between the executive and the legislature will be a key indicator of democratic health in the next years, particularly in the aftermath of the upcoming 2025 elections.
Last Updated: May 2025
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
October 2025
Guinea-Bissau arrests senior officers over alleged foiled coup plot ahead of elections
Authorities in Guinea-Bissau announced the arrest of several senior military officers, including Brigadier General Dahaba Na Walna and two commanders, over an alleged coup attempt aimed at disrupting the 23 November general elections. The arrests were made on 31 October, a day before the official campaign launch, in what Deputy Chief of Staff General Mamadu Turé described as a plot to subvert constitutional order. President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, who faces a second-term bid amid controversy over his mandate and the exclusion of the main opposition PAIGC (Partido Africano para a Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde), said ‘everything is under control.’ According to country experts, the coup plot underscores political tensions, military fractures and concerns over electoral legitimacy, especially following Embaló’s expulsion of an Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) mission earlier this year. This is the third known coup attempt against Embaló, following similar events in 2022 and 2023—both of which led him to dissolve parliament.
Sources: International IDEA, Jornal O Democrata Guiné-Bissau, Institute for Security Studies – Africa, Reuters, Al Jazeera, Jeune Afrique
September 2025
Supreme Court excludes journalists from key press conference
On 25 September, Guinea-Bissau’s Supreme Court of Justice barred three radio stations—Rádio Capital FM, Rádio Voz de Quelelé, and Rádio Galáxia de Pindjiguiti—from covering a press conference held at its headquarters. The event was convened to explain the Court’s controversial decision to reject the candidacy of the PAI–Terra Ranka coalition in the 23 November elections. Journalists from the three stations were initially admitted but later singled out and ordered to leave by a court staffer without explanation. Press freedom groups, including the Media Foundation for West Africa and the Guinean League for Human Rights (LGDH), condemned the move as ‘arbitrary’ and ‘unprecedented’, warning it silences journalists and undermines citizens’ right to free, plural, and transparent information during a critical electoral period. The national journalists’ union (SINJOTECS) called the decision a violation of the right to information. Civil society actors have urged the Court to explain its actions and guarantee equal access to public information for all media.
Sources: The Media Foundation for West Africa, Guinean League for Human Rights (1), Guinean League for Human Rights (2), Deutsche Welle
August 2025
Guinea-Bissau shuts down Portuguese media outlets and expels journalists
On 15 August, Guinea-Bissau’s government ordered the suspension of RTP África, RDP África and Agência Lusa—three major Portuguese-language media outlets—and gave their staff until 19 August to leave the country. No official reason was provided, though Prime Minister Braima Camará said the outlets ‘must understand Guinea-Bissau is a sovereign country.’ The move comes three months before presidential elections and follows previous incidents of harassment against journalists. Portugal condemned the decision as ‘unjustifiable,’ while local and international press freedom groups, including Reporters Without Borders and the Committee to Protect Journalists, denounced it as an attack on media pluralism and the right to information.
Sources: O Democrata, Media for West Africa, Reporters Without Borders, Committee to Protect Journalists, Deutsche Welle, Barron’s
February 2025
Supreme Court rules on presidential mandate amid election delay
On 3 February, Guinea-Bissau’s Supreme Court ruled that President Umaro Sissoco Embaló’s mandate expires on 4 September, contradicting opposition claims that it ended on 27 February. The court based its decision on the date it officially confirmed Embaló as president in 2020, while the opposition argues his term should be counted from 26 February 2020, when he staged his own inauguration in a Bissau hotel. On 23 February, the government announced that both presidential and parliamentary elections—originally set for November 2024—would be held on 30 November 2025. Opposition groups accused Embaló of attempting to extend his rule beyond the legal term limit and called for a nationwide strike on 27 February, though turnout was low. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the United Nations (UN) attempted mediation between 23 and 28 February but failed to reach a consensus on the electoral calendar.
Sources: International IDEA, Reuters, International Crisis Group, Africa Confidential
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