Philippines

The Philippines has had a long history of revolutions against repressive colonial (Spanish, American and Japanese) and postcolonial governments. Since achieving de facto independence in 1946, the Philippines has been characterized by repressive and corrupt political dynasties, widely divided socioeconomic classes, and ethno-religious and ideological fault lines, resulting in decades of armed struggles, and conflicts at the local level.

President Ferdinand Marcos Sr., first elected in 1965, declared martial law and imposed a military-backed dictatorship for over a decade, until he was deposed by the mass popular protests in 1986 known as the People Power revolution, a peaceful revolt that has influenced a number of other popular uprisings against dictatorships in Asia and beyond. Since then, democratization has proceeded forwards, but in fits and starts. Political power remained with the elites and there has been a stream of repressive and corrupt political dynasties, rooted in colonial times, and a popular wave of anger toward the ruling elites for failure to implement socioeconomic and political reforms.  Under this pretext, Rodrigo Duterte, elected as President in 2016, failed to stem corruption and created a culture of impunity through his ‘war on drugs’. The entrenchment of political dynasties is illustrated by the election of Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr., the only son of Marcos Sr. in May 2022, and Sara Duterte, Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter being elected as Vice President.  Throughout its history, the Catholic Church has been a socio-political force, particularly during the People Power revolution, and a key player in debates on public policy, despite formal separation of church and state in the constitution.

The ethno-religious and ideological fault lines are based on two conflicts. In Mindanao, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the Moro National Liberation Front launched an armed struggle for an independent region in 1969. This culminated in an agreement to establish a self-governing autonomous region in the Muslim-dominated areas of Mindanao, the ‘Bangsamoro’, by law in 2019. The second, which is the longest running communist insurgency in Asia, pits the New People’s Army, the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines, against the national government.

In the next five to ten years, further declines in the Civil Liberties component and the Impartial Administration and Checks on Government attributes may be expected. Checks on Government will continue to be impacted by political dynasty dynamics and impediments to free media due to the increased influence the state has on driving narratives and the spread of disinformation on social media. If future regimes continue to perpetuate the practices of their predecessors, the protection of civil liberties will continue to decline, with limited accountability for past violations. The level of Impartial Administration will depend on political commitment towards combatting corruption in a political economy that has been ridden with corrupt leaders and public officials. Opportunities for improvement will depend on the level of transparency and access to information and education on the legacy of political dynasties for younger generations of Filipinos, which will inevitably lead to a more robust democracy.