South Sudan

Monthly Event Reports GSOD Indices

South Sudan exhibits low performance across all categories of the Global State of Democracy framework. Due to the lack of national elections, its Representation score is 0. It is amongst the bottom 25 per cent of countries with regard to all factors of democracy. Over the last five years, it has not experienced much change, except for notable declines in Freedom of the Press. South Sudan is the world’s newest nation, having gained independence from Sudan on 9 July 2011 after a secessionist war dating to the 1980s. South Sudan is a low-income country and its main industries are oil and agriculture.

South Sudan has experienced protracted conflict since 2013, which is primarily the result of an ongoing power struggle between the leaders of South Sudan’s major conflicting parties, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) – led by President Salva Kiir – and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-opposition (SPLM-IO) – led by Riek Machar. Kiir and Machar are ideologically similar, and their rivalry lies principally in securing power for themselves and their ethnic communities. Despite signing a peace agreement (R-ARCSS), resurgence of armed conflict between Kiir and Machar, as well as from rival groups, is an acute threat. Additionally, Thomas Cirillo (National Salvation Front) has led an insurgency in the southern Equatoria region aimed at securing decentralised federal governance. The unlikelihood of peace in South Sudan constrains its development and the functions of its political institutions. Political leaders have manipulated and politicised ethnicity to aid armed conflict. For example, tension between the two biggest ethnic groups, the Dinka and Nuer, has been incited by the rivalry between Kiir (Dinka) and Machar (Nuer).

The sustained violence throughout South Sudan has caused a severe humanitarian crisis, aggravated by climate-related disasters and corruption. Thus far, over 2.3 million people have been displaced, with women and children accounting for about 83 per cent of South Sudan’s refugees. Relatedly, women and girls confront high risks of physical and sexual violence, which increased by 218 per cent from the first to the second quarter of 2022. Corruption remains a significant challenge, with over US$73 million of public funds reportedly taken by political elites between 2018 and 2021. The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has been operating since 2011, although relations between UNMISS and the South Sudanese government have been tense. Regional actors – notably the Intergovernmental Authority on Development and the African Union – have also played a significant role in efforts to resolve the South Sudanese conflict and rebuild the society.

There are three areas related to human rights and democracy that are of concern. First, the contraction of South Sudan’s oil exports and agricultural production following the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as potentially long-lasting effects of diverting global humanitarian efforts to the Ukraine conflict, have left millions facing acute and catastrophic food insecurity. There is a risk that this food insecurity will interact with ethnic fault lines to exacerbate communal conflict, and further lower South Sudan’s performance with regards to Absence of Corruption and Social Group Equality. Secondly, the prolonged conflict may continue to erode South Sudan’s performance more generally. Finally, the August 2022, postponement of elections from 2023 to 2025, and the extension of the unelected transitional government, further inhibits South Sudan’s prospects for democracy.

August 2023 | UN warns South Sudan not ready for long-delayed transitional elections

On 2 August, Nicholas Haysom, the head of the UN mission in South Sudan, warned that the country is not ready to hold transitional elections scheduled for December 2024. Under South Sudan’s 2018 peace agreement, the elections are due to mark the end of its halting transition to democracy, which in August 2022 was extended by two years due to the slow implementation of the agreement. According to Haysom, the country has still not established the necessary infrastructure to hold credible elections, with ‘foundational tasks’, such as drafting a constitution, incomplete. In July 2023, however, its President, Salva Kiir, said the polls would be held next year as planned. South Sudan has not held general elections since it gained its independence in 2011.

Elections Peace Process

August 2022 | South Sudan’s transitional government extended by two years

South Sudan’s unelected transitional government has agreed to extend the transitional period of the peace agreement by an additional 24 months. This means that the elections, which were due to be held upon the expiration of the original agreement in February 2023, will instead be held in December 2024. President Salva Kiir Mayardit justified the extension on the grounds that much of the original agreement remained unimplemented, and that the armed forces need to be unified and a new constitution created before elections can be held. The United States, United Kingdom and Norway, who helped mediate South Sudan’s peace process, criticized the talks that led to the extension agreement for a lack of stakeholder consultation and stated that the “roadmap must demonstrate how another extension would differ from [the two] previous ones.”

Salva Kiir Mayardit