South Sudan

South Sudan has experienced protracted conflict since 2013, which is primarily the result of an ongoing power struggle between the leaders of South Sudan’s major conflicting parties, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) – led by President Salva Kiir – and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-opposition (SPLM-IO) – led by Riek Machar. Kiir and Machar are ideologically similar, and their rivalry lies principally in securing power for themselves and their ethnic communities. Despite signing a peace agreement (R-ARCSS), resurgences of armed conflict between Kiir and Machar, as well as from rival groups, is an acute threat. Additionally, Thomas Cirillo (National Salvation Front) has led an insurgency in the southern Equatoria region aimed at securing decentralised federal governance. The unlikelihood of peace in South Sudan constrains its development and the functions of its political institutions. Political leaders have manipulated and politicised ethnicity to aid armed conflict. For example, tension between the two biggest ethnic groups, the Dinka and Nuer, has been incited by the rivalry between Kiir (Dinka) and Machar (Nuer). 

The sustained violence throughout South Sudan has caused a severe humanitarian crisis, aggravated by climate-related disasters. Thus far, over 2.3 million people have been displaced, with women and children accounting for about 83 percent of South Sudan’s refugees. Relatedly, women and girls confront high risks of physical and sexual violence, which increased by 218 percent  from the first to the second quarter of 2022. The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has been operating since 2011, although relations between UNMISS and the South Sudanese government have been tense. Regional actors – notably the Intergovernmental Authority on Development and the African Union – have also played a significant role in efforts to resolve the South Sudanese conflict and rebuild the society.

There are three areas related to human rights and democracy that are of concern. First, the contraction of South Sudan’s oil exports and agricultural production following the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as potentially long-lasting effects of diverting global humanitarian efforts to the Ukraine conflict, have left millions facing acute and catastrophic food insecurity. There is a risk that this food insecurity will interact with ethnic fault lines to exacerbate communal conflict, and further lower South Sudan’s performance with regards to Absence of Corruption and Social Rights and Equality. Secondly, the prolonged conflict may continue to erode South Sudan’s performance across several attributes and sub-attributes. For example, combatant attacks on women and girls will increase gender disparities and adversely affect Participatory Engagement and Civil Liberties. Finally, the August 2022, postponement of elections from 2023 to 2025, and the extension of the unelected transitional government, further inhibits South Sudan’s prospects for democracy.