South Sudan - March 2025

On 26 March, First Vice-President Riek Machar was placed under house arrest by security forces, accused of inciting rebellion to derail the peace process. The move prompted fears of renewed civil war. Machar’s party, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement In Opposition (SPLM-IO), said the arrest violated the 2018 peace deal, which it declared had collapsed. Other senior SPLM-IO figures were also detained and replaced by President Salva Kiir loyalists. The move followed 4 March clashes, when the White Army, a Machar-linked militia, attacked army positions in Upper Nile. Government forces responded with airstrikes on civilian areas, reportedly using barrel bombs, causing causalities and displacing at least 63,000 people. The crisis deepened with Uganda’s deployment of troops and tanks into South Sudan, raising concerns over arms embargo breaches and foreign interference. In February, Kiir dismissed two vice-presidents and promoted his adviser Benjamin Bol Mel, positioning him as a likely successor.

Update: Violence against civilians in South Sudan surged to the highest level in nearly five years, with a UN report documenting 1,607 civilian victims between January and March 2025, including 739 killed and 679 injured. Most deaths were attributed to community-based militias, particularly in Warrap State, though incidents involving conventional armed groups rose by 27 per cent. 

Sources: United Nations, The Guardian, Africa Confidential, Institute for Security Studies, British Broadcasting Corporation, Radio Tamazuj, Reuters, United Nations Peacekeeping