Present-day Djibouti is thought to have been inhabited since the neolithic age and, following the introduction of Islam to the area in the ninth century, was ruled by a series of sultanates. Between the late nineteenth century and 1977 it was first a colony and then an overseas territory of France, under whose rule ethnic identities were essentialised and became the basis for political participation. Alongside geopolitical issues, ethnic tensions are one of the primary drivers of Djibouti’s politics.  

The country has a dominant party system—in which the main party enjoys a four-fifths parliamentary majority—and has been ruled by President Ismail Omar Guelleh since 1999,  when he succeeded his uncle. Guelleh presides over a highly personalised regime, that has maintained power through nepotism, patronage, and coercion, limiting rights and arresting journalists and political opponents. While Djibouti holds regular elections, they have frequently been boycotted by opposition parties, who have questioned their credibility. The judicial system lacks independence and has been weaponised by the regime against its opponents. 

Guelleh and most other governing party officials are members of the Issa Somali ethnic group, which comprises approximately 60 per cent of the population and fought an insurgency against members of the Afar minority (approximately 35 per cent) in the early 1990s. Interethnic tensions between these two groups also date back to post-independence politics, at which point the Afar people were politically sidelined in response to their being favoured by the French colonial administration. Despite constitutional guarantees of equal rights, Djiboutian women face discrimination, and there are gender gaps across education, employment, and political representation. Djiboutian law is largely silent on the rights of LGBTQIA+ people, and societal norms do not allow for discussion and expression of LGBTQIA+ identities.  

Access to Djibouti’s ports for its landlocked neighbours gives it regional importance, but it has also made it a prime transit site for illicit arms trade and human trafficking. Djibouti plays a stabilizing role in the Horn of Africa and hosts refugees from the region. It remains politically stable, partly due to the unfettered power of the current regime, which, despite its repression of opposition and human rights organizations, can rely on external support due to Djibouti’s strategic geopolitical importance.  

Going forward, it will be important to watch all categories of democratic performance. The state anti-corruption initiatives should be monitored to assess any possibility of improvement. Relatedly, there is a need for job growth to accompany economic growth in Djibouti. Otherwise, unemployment levels, especially among women, could impact poverty-related food insecurity; the Basic Welfare and Gender Equality indicators should be monitored with this in mind.  

Last updated: May 2025