Senegal

Monthly Event Reports GSOD Indices

Senegal exhibits mid-range performance in Representation, Rights and Rule of Law, and it performs in the high range with regard to Participation. Over the past five years, it has largely maintained its performance levels, with the exception of declines in Freedom of the Press and Freedom of Association and Assembly. Senegal has long been known for stability—albeit occasionally punctuated by periods of unrest—that contrasts with the numerous coups that have occurred in neighboring West African nations. Senegal is a lower-middle income country, with an economy that has traditionally revolved around agricultural products such as peanuts, sugarcane, and cotton. In recent decades, Senegal has seen the development of the industrial, mining, and services sectors.

Present-day Senegal was, for much of its precolonial history, an important part of several West African kingdoms and a critical node on trans-Saharan caravan routes. Starting in the 1600s, the country slowly came under the control of the French, and eventually obtained independence in 1960. While Senegal was initially a one-party state under President Léopold Senghor, the party system was gradually liberalized in the 1970s and 1980s, and the country experienced democratic transitions in 2000 and 2012. Electoral politics in Senegal are driven primarily by social inequities, not ethnicity. In particular, levels of education and the urban-rural divide are salient dividing lines. Those who live in cities tend to vote for opposition parties, while those in the countryside are more prone to support the government as a result of patronage and clientelist appeals. While Senegal is a unitary nation, a system of decentralization means that levels of development vary widely across the country. As a result, the primary issues in Senegalese politics are investing in development and combatting corruption.

Several aspects of social identity constitute additional cleavages in the West African nation, including religion. While Muslims account for a large majority of the population, Christians—mainly Catholics—comprise about five per cent of the total. Casamance, a southern region with a large Christian population, is culturally and geographically separated from the rest of Senegal by The Gambia, and has long fought a low-level conflict challenging the reach of the Senegalese state. An additional limitation on the state’s ability to project power is seen in the Islamic city of Touba, which enjoys a de facto autonomous status and provides its own social services. Issues of sexuality and gender are also deeply salient in Senegal. LGBTQIA+ people regularly face societal protests and discrimination, and the country continues to criminalize consensual same-sex conduct. While Senegal is lauded for its leadership in women’s political participation, women continue to face major challenges, including a strict abortion ban and widespread gender-based violence.

Looking ahead, it will be important to watch Credible Elections and Basic Welfare indicators, as the opposition has been weakened somewhat in recent years, and public confidence in state institutions is low. The 2022 elections saw robust multiparty competition and no outright parliamentary majority, which are positive indicators for the future of democracy in the West African nation.

July 2023 | President Macky Sall announces he will not run for a third term

Senegal's 2024 presidential election continued to motivate politics in the country in July 2023. President Macky Sall announced that he will not seek a third term in office. He had publicly entertained the possibility of running again in 2024, claiming that the revision of the constitution in 2016 had effectively reset presidential term limits. Leaders including the Chairperson of the African Union Commission and the Secretary General of the United Nations described Sall’s decision not to seek a third term as a positive example in the region. Also in July, opposition politician Ousmane Sonko was arrested and faced further criminal charges. Sonko was charged with nine serious offences, including plotting an insurrection and criminal association with terrorists. Sonko has been a frontrunning candidate for the 2024 presidential election, but his past convictions may disqualify him.

Macky Sall Term limits

June 2023 | Unrest and deaths after opposition politician convicted of ‘corrupting youth’

Prominent opposition politician Ousmane Sonko’s popularity has faced multiple criminal and civil trials in 2023. A criminal conviction could prevent his candidacy in the 2024 presidential elections. In the first proceeding, Sonko was convicted in May of defamation. In June, Sonko was acquitted of charges of rape and uttering death threats but convicted of ‘corrupting youth’ (meaning using his position of power to have sex with a person who is less than 21 years old) and sentenced to two years in prison. He has appealed the first conviction, but as the second trial was conducted in absentia, the verdict cannot be appealed. While Sonko was not immediately arrested, there was significant unrest when news of the conviction broke on 1 June. At least 15 people were killed in clashes between Sonko’s supporters and the police.

Protests Ousmane Sonko

March 2023 | Unrest as opposition politician faces trials

In the lead up to the 2024 presidential election, Ousmane Sonko has emerged as a likely candidate to challenge President Macky Sall (who is widely expected to seek a third term). Sonko’s potential candidacy is impaired by two criminal trials: one involving charges of rape and death threats, and another involving an accusation of libel against a government minister. As the date of the first trial approached at the end of March, his supporters clashed with police in a number of locations across the country. Adding to the tensions, Sonko made accusations of an assassination attempt after he was exposed to a chemical irritant as he was physically forced into the court building. Sonko’s first trial ended on 30 March. He was found guilty of libel but given a two-month suspended sentence that will not prevent his candidacy. The rape trial is yet to begin but can be expected to generate unrest when it does.

Protests

August 2022 | Legislative election narrows governing majority

Senegal held a regularly scheduled legislative election on 31 July. The election was reported to be free and fair. Both the governing coalition and opposition parties had encountered some procedural problems related to the registration of candidates, but there were no significant technical or legal challenges during the polling. The election saw increased support for opposition parties, reducing the seats held by the coalition supporting President Macky Sall (Benno Bokk Yakaar) from 125 seats down to 82 in the 165-seat legislature. Sall’s coalition was able to maintain a bare majority through the support of Pape Diop, the sole member from Bokk Gis-Gis. One key outcome of this election is that Benno Bokk Yakaar no longer has enough seats to pass constitutional amendments without the support of opposition parties. Since a constitutional change would be required to allow President Sall to run for a third term, this change in the legislature has significant implications for the future of presidential term limits in Senegal.

Macky Sall Term limits Elections