
Madagascar

Madagascar exhibits low-range performance in the Rule of Law and Rights categories of the Global State of Democracy Framework and mid-range performance in Representation and Participation. It is amongst the bottom 25 per cent of countries in the world with regards to several factors associated with Rights, Participation and the Rule of Law. Over the past five years, it has experienced a decline in Credible Elections. Despite notable natural resources and impressive biodiversity, Madagascar is one of the poorest countries in the world and struggles with food insecurity and a high poverty rate. Although the vast majority of the population is employed in agriculture, the services sector makes the largest contribution to the country’s GDP. Its economy is also heavily dependent on foreign aid and has proven to be highly vulnerable to climate change.
Madagascar began to be populated much later than the African mainland – only about 1300 years ago. Interactions with both mainland Africa and parts of Asia have contributed to the development of the national culture and its current ethnic diversity. The most significant ethnic division today is between the two largest groups, the Merina people, who predominantly live in the central, more urban highlands, and the Côtier people, the nominal grouping of the country’s coastal ethnic groups. Having ruled Madagascar in the period immediately preceding French annexation (1896), Merina leaders were heavily represented within the small Malagasy elite that were favoured under colonial rule and continue to be well represented in governmental functions today.
After 64 years of often brutal French colonization, Madagascar gained independence in 1960, though France maintained a high degree of influence until 1972. Madagascar’s post-independence history has been characterized by political instability, including impeachments, contested elections, and a coup d’etat in 2009 that resulted in the current president's first term as leader of a provisional government. The core driver of this instability has been institutional weakness, including the centralization of power in the figure of president, the lack of accountability mechanisms, and related elite capture. Political debates in the island country have centered on the country’s struggling economy, food insecurity, as well as rising youth unemployment.
Madagascar’s diverse population includes at least 18 distinct ethnic groups. While ethnic cleavages no longer amount to overt discrimination, political mobilization tends to occur along the Merina-Côtier divide, and differences continue exist vis-à-vis joblessness and purchasing power statistics. In terms of gender equality, the country is marked by disparities in access to education and employment, and high rates of intimate partner violence. Societal stigmatization is a common experience among the LGBTQIA+ community, despite some basic legal recognitions.
Looking ahead, it will be important to monitor the country’s performance in Rights, as the 2023-2024 electoral period was prominently marked by the consolidation of power in the executive and a shrinking space for political contestation, including a blanket ban on political demonstrations in public spaces. More recently, widespread intimidation of human rights defenders, and the arbitrary detention of a sitting parliamentary member (following criticism of electoral irregularities) likewise signals growing intolerance for dissent. Press freedoms have simultaneously deteriorated, with reports of journalist arrests. As such, Civil Liberties remains a key indicator to monitor for Madagascar’s near-term democratic trajectory.
Last updated: May 2025
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
May 2024
Incumbent coalition loses parliamentary majority according to provisional election results
On 29 May, Madagascar held legislative elections for 163 members of the National Assembly, the lower chamber of the country’s parliament. According to provisional results released by the electoral commission (Madagascar’s electoral commission (Commission électorale nationale indépendante), CENI), the incumbent coalition led by President Andry Rajoelina, Together with President Andry Rajoelina (Isika rehetra miaraka amin'i Andry Rajoelina, IRMAR), won 80 seats, two short of an absolute majority in the chamber. The main opposition coalition, Firaisankina, won 24 seats, with smaller parties and 52 independents winning the remainder. Eighty of the 473 candidates (17 per cent) who contested the elections are women. Voter turnout was reported to be 48.03 per cent% of registered voters. The provisional results still need to be certified by the High Constitutional Court (Haute Cour Constitutionnelle, HCC), which must first rule on the approximately 100 legal challenges that have been lodged by candidates. International observers noted reports of candidate intimidation, exclusionary administrative and political measures (e.g. candidates being denied tax certificates needed for registration), and the unlawful closure of radio stations. They concluded, however, that the elections had been calm and peaceful.
Update: The final election results were certified by the High Constitutional Court on 27 June 2024. It declared IRMAR to have won 84 seats, giving President Rajoelina’s coalition an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Independent candidates won 50 seats and the Firaisankina coalition, 22. Twenty-six women were elected.
Sources: Commission électorale nationale indépendante (1) Le Monde (1), Le Monde (2), Commission électorale nationale indépendante (2) African Union, Southern African Development Community, Jeune Afrique, Inter-Parliamentary Union
February 2024
High Constitutional Court upholds new law mandating castration of rapists
On 12 February, the parliament of Madagascar passed a law establishing chemical or surgical castration as punishments for those convicted of raping a child. President Andry Rajoelina referred the law to the High Constitutional Court (Haute Cour Constitutionnelle, HCC) for constitutional review prior to promulgation the following day. The Court ruled on 23 February that the law was in conformity with the constitution, and mandated surgical castration for those convicted of raping a child under the age of 10. In the case of older children, judges are given some discretion regarding sentences. Human rights activists have argued that the new law violates Madagascar’s commitments under several international human rights treaties, including the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the Convention Against Torture.
Sources: Africa News, Haute Cour Constitutionnelle, Midi Madagasikara, Tribune Madagascar, Le Monde
December 2023
Incumbent President re-elected in election marked by opposition boycotts and low turnout
Madagascar’s presidential election was held on 16 November, resulting in a victory on the first ballot for incumbent President Andry Rajoelina. Ten of the twelve other candidates decided to boycott the election late the process, thus leaving their names on the ballots. Several legal challenges to the provisional results of the election were filed, but these were dismissed by the courts and on 2 December the High Constitutional Court declared Rajoelina the winner. The national election commission (Commission électorale nationale indépendante, CENI) reported turnout to be 46.4 per cent of the registered voters, down from 53.9 per cent in 2018. Rajoelina received 58.9 per cent of the votes, while the two leading opposition candidates, Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko and Marc Ravalomanana, received 14.4 and 12.1 per cent, respectively. There were no female candidates. An observer mission from the African Union noted that the election took place in a fraught political atmosphere ‘characterized by acts of violence,’ following a month of demonstrations, and that turnout was lower among women than men.
Sources: Commission électorale nationale indépendante, African Union, Reuters, Al Jazeera
October 2023
Election delayed by a week as opposition supporters clash with police
The High Constitutional Court of Madagascar ruled on 12 October that the first round of the presidential election would be delayed by one week (from 9 November to 16 November). The court did not provide a reason for the delay, but the capital city was the scene of regular clashes between opposition supporters and the police in the weeks before, as unauthorized marches broadly supporting 11 opposition candidates were met with tear gas. Outdoor demonstrations have been banned in Madagascar since April. During one of these incidents, former president (and current presidential candidate) Marc Ravalomanana sustained a minor injury. Incumbent President Andry Rajoelina is running for re-election, and opposition politicians interpret the restriction on demonstrations as favouring his campaign.
Sources: Reuters, Africanews (1), Africanews (2), Deutsche Welle, Jeune Afrique
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