Somalia
Somalia exhibits low range performance across all four categories of the Global State of Democracy Framework. It is among the bottom 25 per cent of countries across most factors. Even so, over the last five years, it has experienced significant advances in Access to Justice and Freedom of Expression. Somalia is classified as a ‘least developed country‘, and has low GDP growth. Its main sources of income include agriculture—livestock, crops and fisheries—alongside foreign aid and remittances. It is considered to be one of the world’s most corrupt countries and continues to struggle with a high poverty rate, and food insecurity, both exacerbated by recurrent drought, floods and internal instability.
Somalia has for centuries been a hub for trade and migration due to its location between sub-Saharan Africa and southwestern Asia. Formerly an Italian colony and British protectorate, Somalia gained independence in 1960. The country’s third president, Mohamed Siad Barre, held dictatorial power from 1969 until his overthrowin 1991, sparking a decades-long civil war. Since then, Somalia has lacked effective state structures and remains one of the world’s most fragile countries. The northern regions of Somaliland and Puntland, while not internationally recognized as independent, have pursued more stable political paths. In 2022, Hassan Mohamud was elected indirectly on a reform platform, but progress has been slow. The constitutional reform process has caused tensions with federal states. In 2025, Somalia launched its first national voter registration campaign in decades, a step toward one-person, one-vote elections and shifting away from its long-standing clan-based voting system, with presidential elections anticipated by 2026.
Clan-based economic and territorial disputes remain Somalia’s primary internal cleavage, complicating efforts to build a unified national identity. Minority and marginalized communities—estimated to comprise 30 per cent of the population—have faced a long history of discrimination. State consolidation is also impaired by the militant group al-Shabaab’s effective control of significant portions of south-central Somalia. A military campaign led by the African Union, with U.S. and other Western support, against al-Shabaab has yielded mixed results. Since 2022, renewed fighting has led to attacks on civilians and the displacement of hundreds of thousands, including to neighboring countries where Somali refugees often face discrimination.
Gender-based violence is widespread. Somalia has the highest rate of female genital mutilation globally, affecting 98 per cent of girls aged 5 to 11. Same-sex sexual activity is criminalized under both the Penal Code and Sharia law, with penalties ranging from imprisonment to death—fostering a climate of fear, invisibility, and discrimination against LGBTQIA+ individuals. The country also faces recurring climate-related hazards, with increasing droughts and flash floods. Public health, education, and infrastructure remain severely underdeveloped, weakened by decades of conflict and underinvestment.
Looking ahead, it will be important to monitor developments in security and constitutional reform. The African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia officially replaced the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia following its withdrawal at the end of 2024 and began operations in early 2025. However, the new mission faces challenges, including an unclear mandate, limited resources, and weak coordination with Somali authorities. The changing security environment may affect Personal Integrity and Security. The constitutional reform process has raised fundamental questions around national unity, the electoral system, and Somalia’s broader democratic vision. Indicators such as Inclusive Suffrage, Effective Parliament, and Elected Government should be monitored in the context of the 2026 presidential elections.
Last updated: June 2025
https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/
August 2025
Somalia reaches deal with opposition defectors on electoral model
On 25 August, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud reached a political agreement on key elements of the country’s electoral process with four opposition leaders who broke from the Somali Salvation Forum (SSF)—Somalia’s main opposition alliance. The deal affirms that Members of Parliament will be elected by popular vote, while the president will continue to be chosen by lawmakers. This partially reverses the provisional constitutional amendments passed in March 2024 and an October 2024 electoral framework agreement, both of which envisioned a directly elected presidency. While the agreement marks progress away from Somalia’s traditional clan-based, indirect model, full implementation remains uncertain amid ongoing political disputes. Major opposition figures outside the deal continue to reject the reforms or boycott the process, citing security and political concerns, leaving Somalia’s transition to ‘one person, one vote’ incomplete. General elections are expected to take place in 2026.
Sources: Mareeg, Africa News, International Crisis Group, International IDEA (1), International IDEA (2), Garowe Online, Voice of America
April 2025
Somalia launches voter registration ahead of landmark elections
On 13 April, Somalia launched a national voter registration campaign in Mogadishu, marking a key step toward the country’s first one-person, one-vote elections since 1967. The campaign is aimed at preparing for local elections scheduled for late June 2025 and represents a shift away from the country’s long-standing clan-based voting system. In 2023, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud pledged to transition Somalia to universal suffrage. Since then, the cabinet has endorsed legislation to support direct presidential elections by 2026. However, opposition leaders, including former presidents Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, have rejected the process as unilateral and suggested they may organise a parallel vote.
Sources: Hiiran, The East African, News Central, Africa News, Reuters, International IDEA
March 2024
Constitutional amendments establish directly elected presidency
A package of constitutional amendments was approved by both chambers of the Somali parliament on 30 March. The amendments will significantly change the office of the president. Instead of the current indirect electoral system under which clans select the members of the parliament, which then elects the president, the president will be directly elected under a system of universal suffrage. The term of office will also be extended from four to five years, and the president will gain the power to dismiss the prime minister (previously a power held by the parliament). Another aspect of the amendments is the establishment of a multi-party system with three political parties. The amendments also address the rights of children, setting the ‘age of maturity’ at 15, which advocacy groups argue will maintain a high level of child marriage, particularly for girls. The constitutional amendments have been opposed by many influential actors in Somalia, including the governments of Puntland and Somaliland, and two former presidents. The previous system - with a divided executive - was intended to share power between clans, and these amendments may undermine that. Under the process agreed upon in January, the amendments will remain provisional until there is agreement with the regional government of Somaliland and a referendum is held.
Sources: The Standard, Africa News (1), Garowe Online (1), Africa News (2), Africa Confidential, Garowe Online (2)
December 2023
Puntland state reverses plan to establish universal suffrage
In December, the semi-autonomous state of Puntland abandoned a plan to move from a clan-based electoral system to one with universal suffrage. State President Said Abdullahi Deni’s original announcement of the move to universal suffrage in May was met with protests from opposition politicians and a brief period of violence in which at least 26 people died. Since the plan has been abandoned, the parliament remains selected by the leaders of clans across the state, while the state president is elected by the parliament. A new state parliament was sworn in on 1 January 2024, and President Deni was re-elected by the state parliament on 8 January 2024.
Sources: The East African, Reuters, Wardheer News, Garowe Online, United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia, International IDEA
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