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Asia and the Pacific
Western Asia

Oman holds legislative elections

Status
Past

Oman conducted general elections on 29 October to elect 90 members to the Majlis Al-Shura Council for its tenth term, spanning 2023 to 2027. There were a total of 843 candidates, including 32 women. The elections saw a record turnout of 65.9 per cent, with more than 753,000 registered voters casting their ballots across the country. The early voting statistics showed a balanced gender participation, with 13.55 per cent male and 10.39 per cent female voters.

National Party defeats Labour in general election

Status
Past

The conservative National Party defeated the incumbent Labour Party in New Zealand’s 2023 general election on 14 October. Although Labour lost half of its seats and media described the election as a “landslide”, the National Party still needed to secure the support of smaller parties to build a government. Voter turnout was 78 per cent, roughly in line with other recent elections. Official data on gender balance was not yet available due to the pending by-election in the constituency of Port Waikato on 25 November 2023.

Parliament shifts to the right following federal elections

Status
Past

On 22 October, Switzerland held federal elections to elect all members of the National Council (the lower parliamentary house with a total of 200 seats) and the Council of States (the smaller, upper house with 46 seats). The right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP) won the greatest vote share in the lower house (27.9 per cent translating to 62 seats). This was followed by the Social Democratic party (SP) with 18.3 per cent of the vote and 41 seats.

Ruling coalition loses majority in general elections

Status
Past

In general elections held on 8 October, a total of seven parties passed the required threshold to be represented in Parliament. All 60 seats of the Chamber of Deputies, Luxembourg’s unicameral legislature, were contested. The opposition Christian Social Party (CSV) won the greatest vote share (29.2 per cent), securing 21 seats in the legislature. Ruling coalition members, the Democratic Party (DP) and the Socialist party (LSAP), followed behind with 18.7 per cent (14 seats) and with 18.91 per cent of the vote (11 seats) respectively.

Opposition best placed to form government following elections

Status
Past

Following parliamentary elections held on 15 October, the incumbent Law and Justice (PiS) party won the largest share of the vote (35.4 per cent), but it was unable to hold onto its majority in Parliament. All seats in both houses of Parliament (the Sejm and the Senate) were contested. The main opposition party, Civic Platform (KO), came second with 30.7 per cent of the vote and 157 seats. Its two likely coalition partners, Third Way (Trzecia Droga) and The Left (Lewica) finished with 14.4 per cent of the vote (65 seats) and 8.6 per cent (26 seats) respectively.

Indigenous Voice referendum fails

Status
Past

On 14 October, Australian voters decisively rejected a proposal (via referendum) to recognise Indigenous people in the constitution and to establish a First Nations voice in parliament. Voter turnout was at 89.95 per cent. The outcome maintains the status quo for representation of Indigenous communities and has been described by experts as a significant setback for Indigenous rights in the nation.

General election returns victory for incumbent party in House of Representatives – Presidential race goes to second round

Status
Past

General elections were held in Liberia on 11 October. Voters chose all the members of the House of Representatives, half the members of the Senate, and also voted in the first round of the presidential election. Turnout was 79 per cent of registered voters, up from 72 per cent in 2017. Incumbent President George Weah of the Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC) was slightly ahead in the first round with 43.8 per cent support, closely followed by Joseph Boakai of the Unity Party (UP) who received 43.4 per cent of the votes.

Pro-Russian Robert Fico wins snap elections

Status
Past

The populist left-wing Smer party led by former Prime Minister Robert Fico won early parliamentary elections, held on 30 September. Smer won 22.94 per cent of the vote and 42 of the 150 seats in the country’s unicameral Parliament. A total of seven parties will be represented in Parliament. Progressive Slovakia (PS) came in second place with 17.96 per cent of the vote and 32 seats, winning 61.7 per cent of the record-high overseas vote. The centre-left Hlas party, an offshoot from the Smer party, placed third with 27 seats, followed by the OL’aNO party with 16 seats.

Conservative parties maintain control of the Senate following elections

Status
Past

In Senatorial elections held on 24 September, the Les Républicains party, together with its centre-right allies, held on to its dominant position in the Senate. President Macron faced further setbacks in the legislature, after his party lost its majority in the lower house in June 2022. Sonia Backès, the only member of government with a contested seat in the election, was defeated in New Caledonia by a pro-independence candidate, and subsequently offered her resignation from her post as Secretary of State of Citizenship.

Americas

July - December 2024
 

Key trends in the second half of 2024 included improvements in Access to Justice. However, setbacks in Rights and the Rule of Law were notable. Three countries held elections: Uruguay and the United States saw party turnover, while the elections in Venezuela have been widely characterized as fraudulent.

Areas to watch in early 2025 include measures in some countries to weaken checks on government and stifle criticism. The arrival of a new administration in the United State of America will also be a key focus.

Emerging patterns

What are some important thematic trends that have emerged over the last 6 months?

Representation

The establishment of a Provisional Electoral Council in Haiti was a potentially positive step toward elections in a context of sustained breakdown in institutions. However, changes in the membership of the Transitional Presidential Council lessened stability amidst the security crisis marked by severe gang violence and a devastating humanitarian situation.

Elsewhere, events affecting Representation were mixed. In Bolivia, the Legislature was able to come to a decision to set a date for overdue judicial elections, following a year-long standstill, enabling the partial replacement of judicial office-holders in December. In Canada, a Conservative party filibuster of an own motion related to a question of privilege halted the business of the House of Commons. In Argentina, parliamentary oversight of executive power has waned with the approval of the “Ley Bases”, that granted the president special powers to legislate by decree on certain matters, allowing him to bypass ordinary congressional procedures.

Rights

Improvements in Access to Justice have been encouraging, though the region experienced some setbacks as well. Brazil improved access to truth and transitional justice by restoring the Special Commission on Political Deaths and Disappearances, and recognizing previously unacknowledged groups as victims of the military dictatorship. A conviction in the murder of prominent councilwoman Marielle Franco, and an agreement with the mining company responsible for a catastrophic dam breach in 2015 that resulted in deaths, displacements and environmental damage to ensure reparations to victims, are further signals of progress. In Canada, a Supreme Court ruling that ordered compensation for longstanding underpayments of treaty-obligated annuities to Anishinaabe First Nations was a step towards accountability for violations of Indigenous rights. Rulings by domestic and international courts have also reaffirmed states’ responsibility to ensure the rights of Indigenous and ethnic minorities in Colombia and Ecuador.

In Peru, notable developments include a UN treaty body’s recommendation that the government make reparations for forced sterilizations that particularly impacted rural and Indigenous women in the 1990s. However, tensions have emerged in the country between the courts and parliament regarding how to address historic crimes, with a judge disapplying a statute of limitations recently approved by Congress due to its incompatibility with Peruvian and international law.

Another setback for Access to Justice took place in Mexico, where a ‘constitutional supremacy’ amendment banned any judicial review of constitutional changes, limiting people’s ability to defend their rights in courts.

Weakened Freedom of Expression has been a recent feature in some countries such as Argentina, where changes to legislation have imposed burdensome requirements for information access requests, and Mexico, where Congress passed constitutional amendments to abolish autonomous bodies, including a freedom of information watchdog. Freedom of Expression further deteriorated in Venezuela, where legislation to criminalize support of international sanctions was passed, and in Nicaragua, a country where vague legislation was enacted to criminalize critical speech in social media.

Finally, immigration policy has tightened in the Dominican Republic and in Chile, with a detrimental effect on Social Group Equality. However, the latter government has also announced that it is studying a plan to regularize undocumented immigrants.

Rule of Law

The weakening of accountability and checks on government was a notable trend in this period. In the United States, a Supreme Court ruling that former presidents enjoy broad immunity has diluted equality in legal accountability. In Mexico, despite experts’ warnings of its negative impact to judicial independence, the entry into force of a controversial reform to the judiciary that will introduce popular elections for all judgeships, has upended the justice system.

Personal Integrity and Security remains a challenge. In the United States, now-President Donald Trump was the target of two attempted assassinations. In Bolivia, former president Evo Morales was involved in a violent encounter in which his vehicle was attacked with gunfire. A longstanding, broader downturn in security has led some leaders to enact harsher measures to combat crime and gang violence, as has been the case recently in Panama, Chile and Trinidad and Tobago.

Participation

In the second half of the 2024 election super-cycle, three countries went to the polls: Venezuela, Uruguay and the United States. The average voter turnout was approximately 70.8 per cent (Uruguay has compulsory voting). In the United States and Uruguay, where legislative elections took place, the average female representation in the lower house slightly improved. Both the US and Uruguayan elections resulted in party turnover. The election in Venezuela was decried for its lack of transparency and credibility, with some domestic and international observers describing it as fraudulent. Some countries and stakeholders have recognized the opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, as the elected president.

The repression of anti-Maduro protests, the closure of 1500 NGOs and the upcoming constitutional amendments that sanction ‘treason’ with the deprivation of nationality in Nicaragua, and the introduction of excessive and burdensome controls on NGOs in Paraguay are further examples of shrinking civic space in the region.

What is important to watch over the next six months?

It will be important to watch the steps taken in Haiti towards holding long-overdue elections. In Trinidad and Tobago a constitutional reform process is underway that could impact key institutions; similarly, Jamaica’s constitutional reform process has the potential to encourage ‘decolonial constitutionalism’ elsewhere in the subregion.

Civil liberties will also be key to assessing the state of democracy in the region. In  Argentina, the creation of a new AI unit to ‘predict future crimes’ has raised concerns for its impacts on the rights of the accused. In the United States, a draft anti-terror bill that could strip non-profits from their tax-exempt status, without all necessary due process guarantees, could have a significant impact on freedom of expression and impact participation because of its potential to damage the reputation and funding of CSOs unjustly accused of supporting terrorism.

Measures to safeguard the justice system from external influence and ensure procedural transparency will be key for Rule of Law in the region. A recent corruption scandal in Chile revealed vulnerabilities through which powerful actors have abused the judicial system, bringing attention to the need to strengthen transparency in the appointment of judges. Further, measures to guarantee transparency throughout the new judicial electoral processes in Mexico will be key to protecting judicial independence.

Elections will be held in February in Ecuador, and later in the year in Chile, Bolivia, Honduras, Jamaica and Guyana.

What we are reading

Margaret Satterthwaite, the UN’s Special Rapporteur on the independence of judges and lawyers, recently issued a report on ‘Safeguarding the independence of judicial systems in the face of contemporary challenges to democracy’. The report lays out how certain governments and politicians target judicial independence and institutions, delving into the techniques used to weaken judicial independence, such as exercising undue influence, direct interference or attacks (including derogatory rhetoric), or even the capturing of judicial institutions.

Given recent developments in the region, where several leaders have enacted legislation or adopted measures targeting judicial independence, the report is a timely reading. It also presents key recommendations, including on building resilience, appointment processes, and engagement with communities. Measures to investigate threats, violence and acts of coercion or influence against judges and other actors of the justice system are further recommended to curb growing efforts against judicial independence.

Factors of Democratic Performance

Scores represent regional averages in 2024.
*Data represents an average of the entire region

Number of events reported

See the most frequently impacted categories of democratic performance over the last six months

16
37
38
10
Northern America
Caribbean
Central America
South America

Most impacted factors of democracy

Predictable Enforcement
18x
Political Equality
14x
Civil Liberties
13x

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