War in Sudan 15 April 2023: Background, Analysis and Scenarios
The aim of this Report is to provide a situation analysis with a view to informing relevant political and third-party actors on the core issues that require resolution and negotiation.
Sudan’s post-independence history is characterized by durable disorders. The peak of these disorders was reached in 2011 when the South Sudanese voted overwhelmingly for secession. Between 1956 and 2019, Sudan had three short democratic governments and long military dictatorships.
An end to the ongoing war in Sudan should be sought through addressing the causes of lengthy conflicts and durable disorders which characterize the history of post-independence Sudan. The war has inflicted human suffering and has involved destruction of infrastructure, looting, pillaging and ransacking of homes and private enterprises. Millions of Sudanese have been displaced within the country and hundreds of thousands have sought refuge in neighbouring countries, fleeing under difficult conditions.
Objectives of the report
1. Pre-conflict developments: December 2018 and its aftermath
2. The October 2021 coup and its implications
3. The Political Framework Agreement
4. The war of 15 April 2023
5. Potential future scenarios and priorities for better civilian–military relations
6. Conclusions and recommendations
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About International IDEA
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