Nordic–Baltic democracies—understood to include Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden—consistently rank among the strongest in the world in the Global State of Democracy Indices.

These democracies are increasingly exposed to domestic stressors—including rising economic inequality, demographic decline and intensifying debates over political belonging—as well as cross‑border pressures linked to climate change, hybrid threats and geopolitical uncertainty. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the evolving strategic significance of the Arctic have underscored new and compounding security risks, while the region’s diverse historical trajectories shape how these pressures are felt across countries. These mounting challenges could either fragment coordination or catalyse deeper integration.

Against this backdrop, International IDEA convened a strategic foresight process to explore how democracy in the Nordic–Baltic region might evolve through 2050. This report presents four scenarios—baseline, decline, new equilibrium and transformation—designed to support reflection, dialogue and strategic planning under conditions of uncertainty. Together, they underscore a central message: the region’s democratic strengths remain substantial, but the pressures it faces are equally real, and preparing for multiple possible futures will be essential to sustaining democratic resilience in the decades ahead.