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France - October 2025

Parliament approves definition of rape based on consent

On 29 October, Parliament passed an amendment to the penal code, adding consent to the legal definition of rape and sexual assault. While previously the definition was limited to the use of violence, coercion, threat or surprise, it now extends to all sexual acts performed without ‘free, and informed, specific, prior and revocable’ consent. The debate over the necessity of the reform was reignited following the December 2024 trial connected to the Gisèle Pelicot case, who was the victim of serial rape while drugged by her now ex-husband. The law specifies that consent must be evaluated according to the circumstances and cannot be inferred from ‘silence or lack of reaction’ of the victim. The legislation was introduced by MPs from the Green and Renaissance parties in January 2025, following a parliamentary fact-finding mission, and was promulgated by President Emmanuel Macron on 6 November. 

Sources: BBC, Le Monde, DW, Vie Publique, Ministry Responsible for Equality between Women and Men and the Fight Against Discrimination, French Government 

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President Samia Suluhu Hassan wins second term in Tanzania’s Presidential election

Status
Past

On 29 October, President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared the winner of the country’s presidential election with 97.7 per cent of the vote; she was one of three women candidates among the 17 on the ballot. According to the Independent National Electoral Commission, voter turnout reached nearly 87.0 per cent, up from the disputed 2020 figure of 50 per cent. The main opposition parties, Chadema (Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo) and ACT-Wazalendo, were excluded from the race earlier this year, leaving Hassan to contest against smaller parties.

Mid-term legislative elections result in victory for the ruling party

Status
Past

On 26 October, Argentina held legislative elections to renew half of the members of the Chamber of Deputies (127 seats) and one-third of the members of the Senate (24 seats). Two main political coalitions won the majority of votes across the country: the incumbent La Libertad Avanza (LLA) and the opposition Fuerza Patria/Peronismo (FP) alliance. In the Chamber of Deputies, LLA received 41.5 per cent of the vote, followed by FP with 34.9 per cent. In the Senate, LLA also led with 42.0 per cent, while FP followed with 36.9 per cent.

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United States of America - October 2025

Millions take part in ‘No Kings’ protest

On 18 October, an estimated 7 million people across all 50 states and about 2,600 locations took part in the ‘No Kings’ protests against President Donald Trump. The peaceful mobilizations, one of the largest in U.S. history and the largest of this century, voiced opposition to the Trump administration’s policies and agenda, including its immigration strategy, the reversal of respect for certain rights and attempts to broaden presidential power. Trump and other government officials attempted to discredit the movement, labelling it ‘anti-American’ and organized by the ‘radical’ left. Despite attempts by some officials to characterize participants as violent, the demonstrations were overwhelmingly peaceful, with only minor clashes involving counter-protesters. The protest surpassed the attendance records of the first ‘No Kings’ protest in June (nearly 6 million people in attendance) and the 2017 Women’s March (nearly 5.3 million in attendance).

Sources: ACLUCNNNew York Times

Trump submits complaint to Justice Department over prosecutions
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In October, it was revealed that President Donald Trump submitted a claim for compensation from the Department of Justice (DOJ) in which he has demanded payment of USD 230 million. The claims were filed in 2023 and 2024, prior to the start of his second term. One of the claims regards the investigation into alleged Russian interference during the 2016 election, an inquiry that began during his first term in office. The second concerns the classified documents investigation and the search of his Mar-a-Lago property in 2022. The claims have raised concerns over a potential conflict of interest. The DOJ officials who would have the power to approve any settlement—the deputy attorney general and associate attorney general—represented him and a co-defendant, respectively, in the inquiry into the alleged mishandling of classified documentation. Trump has publicly asserted that the final decision over the claims rests in his hands.

Sources: New York TimesCBSThe GuardianAxiosCNN

Primary categories and factors
Info
Rule of Law 0 Rule of Law  (0)
Absence of Corruption
Predictable Enforcement

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Japan - October 2025

Sanae Takaichi becomes Japan’s first woman to serve as prime minister

On 21 October, Sanae Takaichi of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was elected by both chambers of the National Diet (parliament) as Japan’s first woman to serve as Prime Minister. Takaichi secured 237 votes out of 465 in the lower house and 125 of 246 votes in the upper house runoff. Takaichi had been appointed president of the LDP on 4 October, following Shigeru Ishiba's resignation in September after recent election losses. Takaichi now leads a minority government, formed as part of a new coalition with the Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party). While her victory represents a significant milestone in gender representation, political experts remain uncertain whether her conservative ideology will enhance women’s political empowerment. Takaichi’s new 19-member cabinet remains dominated by men, with two women alongside herself, including Satsuki Katayama, Japan’s first woman serving as Finance Minister.

Sources: The Japan Times, Reuters, The Guardian, European Parliament

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Madagascar - October 2025

Military takes power as President Rajoelina is impeached
Red flag

On 14 October, Colonel Michael Randrianirina announced that the army unit he commanded had taken power and suspended the constitution and several government institutions, including the Senate and the High Constitutional Court (HCC) (although both have subsequently been allowed to operate). The development came three days after the unit, the Army Corps of Personnel and Administrative and Technical Services (CAPSAT), came out onto the streets in support of Gen Z protesters, who had been calling for the resignation of the now-deposed president, Andry Rajoelina. The announced takeover immediately followed the National Assembly’s impeachment of Rajoelina for fleeing the country, prompting the HCC to hand presidential power to Randrianirina. Randrianirina was then inaugurated as interim president on 17 October and then appointed a largely civilian cabinet that he said would govern the country alongside a military-led committee for a transitional period of up to two years, ending with elections.

Sources: Constitution NetMidi MadagasikaraJeune AfriqueHaute Cour ConstitutionnelleReuters       

Primary categories and factors
Info
Representation -2 Representation  (-2)
Elected Government
Rule of Law -2 Rule of Law  (-2)
Predictable Enforcement
Secondary categories and factors
Info
Representation -2 Representation
Effective Parliament
Rule of Law -2 Rule of Law
Judicial Independence
Participation Participation
Civic Engagement

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Americas

January - June 2025
 

In the first half of 2025, leaders in the Americas pushed the boundaries of executive power, a pattern exemplified in the United States. The new US administration’s policies, impacting many measures of democracy, have affected how other countries in the region deal with migration or combat crime. In several countries, the rights of social groups, especially migrants, were restricted. Six countries held national elections.

Emerging patterns

What are some important thematic trends that have emerged over the last 6 months?

Representation

Developments in Representation were mixed, the main trend being attempts to weaken checks and balances. In Argentina, President Milei has repeatedly used ‘urgency and necessity’ decrees to further his agenda on subjects such as migration that require congressional approval. The legislature has taken some assertive steps, such the Senate’s rejection of Supreme Court nominees that President Milei attempted to appoint by decree. In the United States, President Trump has issued a large number of far-reaching executive orders that significantly undermine separation of powers. The administration has cancelled the disbursement of Congressionally approved funds, ordering the closure of the Department of Education and dismantling USAID.

The consolidation of single-party rule is another recurring phenomenon. In El Salvador, where the ruling party and allies hold 57 out of 60 seats, Congress abolished public financing for political parties, making the political system inaccessible to opposition and new political parties. In Nicaragua, members of the opposition are now banned from running for the newly created offices of ‘co-presidency’. 

Rights

Restrictions on mobility and migrants’ rights were the most notable in the beginning of 2025. In Panama, the government tightened rules for asylum seekers and migrants, shuttering shelters in the Darien region and expediting deportations. Central and South American countries have felt the effects of new US policy on migration, which includes the deportation of undocumented migrants to third countries. This policy (along with recent legislation) has significantly narrowed prospects for family reunification and pathways to legal status, eroded migrants’ due process rights and access to justice by resorting to summary deportations, defiance of court orders, and revoking visas and residence permits for political reasons. 

A pushback to diversity, equity and inclusion policies (DEI) has diminished gender equality and social group protections in the United States, including for members of the LGBTQIA+ community, resulting in the rejection of trans identity. LGBTQIA+ rights have also backtracked in Trinidad and Tobago, where an appeals court overturned a landmark ruling for gay rights. In Argentina, gender affirming care for children and adolescents has been restricted.

Some progress in the Rights category has come in the form of strengthened self-government for Indigenous peoples in Colombia, and a National Care Policy establishing a framework to address inequality experienced by those who perform unpaid caregiving tasks.

Rule of Law

Judicial Independence was a recurring theme for Rule of Law. In Costa Rica, President Rodrigo Chaves joined a protest against the judiciary, due to ongoing inquiries into allegations of corruption-related crimes. In Nicaragua, some judicial orders will require national police approval before they are enforced, subordinating judges’ authority. In the United States, federal judges will no longer be able to issue nation-wide injunctions to halt the enforcement of policies that are challenged before the courts, decreasing their power.

Political violence has had a negative impact on Personal Integrity and Security in the United States, where state lawmakers were shot, seemingly for their political affiliations, and in Colombia, where a senator was killed. 

Absence of Corruption performance was also notable. A Brazilian justice confirmed the conviction of former president Collor de Mello, while a Peruvian court found former president Ollanta Humala guilty of money and asset laundering. Another development is the adoption of an anti-corruption law in El Salvador, although its effectiveness has been questioned due to insufficient transparency safeguards.

Participation 

Increased scrutiny of civil society organizations was the main trend in Participation. With negative impacts to civic space, legislation restricting the funds and work of CSOs was introduced in Peru and El Salvador. Amendments in Peru to an international cooperation law will tighten government scrutiny over their work. The Salvadoran Foreign Agents Law will require CSOs that receive foreign funding to pay a 30 per cent tax. 

Elections

National elections were held in six countries: Ecuador (February), Trinidad and Tobago (April), Canada (April), Suriname (May), Venezuela (May), and  Mexico (June). Ecuador and Canada saw their leaders re-elected, with the latter country registering its highest turnout in decades. In Suriname, parliament elected its first woman president. In Trinidad and Tobago, parliamentary elections resulted in an opposition leadership victory. Elections for Venezuela’s National Assembly lacked independent oversight. Mexico held its first judicial elections.

What to watch in the next six months

Given its current trajectory, it will be important to monitor the United States’ democratic performance across all categories. An executive order on ‘electoral integrity’ seeks to introduce ID and other requirements for voters, with a likely impact on Inclusive Suffrage.  The administration’s pauses of the implementation of some legislation, such as the Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act with regard to the ban on TikTok, and attempts to direct agencies in matters that appear to exceed executive powers are likely to impact Predictable Enforcement. As government policies are challenged in the courts, Judicial Independence will be key, as will Personal Integrity and Security, given the rise in political violence. Because of unequal protections to free speech, weakened due process for migrants and the reversal of DEI promotion, Access to Justice, Civil Liberties and Political Equality will be crucial for democracy in the United States.

Access to Justice will also be key in other countries in the region, as Ecuador will be required to take measures to implement an Inter-American Court of Human Rights ruling that found it responsible for rights violations against Indigenous communities. Honduras will see an international inquiry into the killing of prominent human rights defender Berta Caceres. 

Another important development for Rights will be the impact on Basic Welfare of the reintroduction of metal mining in El Salvador, and whether measures are taken by the government to minimize impacts to the environment.

In Participation, elections will be held in Bolivia (August), Jamaica and Guyana (September), Argentina (October – legislative), Honduras and Chile (November). 

Factors of Democratic Performance

Scores represent regional averages in 2024.
*Data represents an average of the entire region

Number of events reported

See the most frequently impacted categories of democratic performance over the last six months

16
47
45
5
Northern America
Caribbean
Central America
South America

Most impacted factors of democracy

Predictable Enforcement
27x
Political Equality
21x
Civil Liberties
16x

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Europe

January - June 2025
 

Over the past six months, developments in Europe were characterized by reforms aimed at promoting more inclusive electoral processes, rising concerns about insecurity, and constraints on freedom of expression, particularly regarding support for LGBTQIA+ rights. There were seven elections during this period.

Emerging patterns

What are some important thematic trends that have emerged over the last 6 months?

Representation

Over the past six months, several elections have reflected deepening political polarization. In Romania and Poland, presidential races were decided by narrow margins between candidates offering profoundly different visions. In Poland, the leading candidates widely diverged on matters including abortion rights and the rule of law, with policy debates laced with concerns about the politicization of public institutions. Romania’s election followed a turbulent period that included an annulled election, court challenges, and widespread dis- and misinformation that strained perceptions of institutional legitimacy and electoral integrity. In Albania, international observers noted that the parliamentary election was characterized by polarizing discourse, particularly between the two main political parties. 

Elsewhere, there were concerns about the fairness of political competition. In Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Republika Srpska entity, the suspension of public funding for political parties and the arrest of the former leader of the largest opposition party signal continuing erosion of political pluralism. In Georgia, the ruling party intensified pressure on its opponents by expanding the legal grounds for party bans and detaining opposition leaders.

On a positive note, several countries have introduced measures to broaden participation and improve ballot access. Cyprus introduced major reforms, including lowering the voting age to 17, introducing automatic voter registration, and enhancing accessibility measures for people with disabilities. Moldova’s parliament adopted a law expanding access to postal voting for citizens abroad.

Rights

The category of Rights was the most impacted during this period. Several events touching upon migration raised complex questions about citizenship and equality. Ukraine introduced a dual citizenship law that will allow Ukrainians to gain an additional citizenship without losing their Ukrainian nationality, and simplifies the process for Ukrainians born abroad to gain citizenship. However, in France the Constitutional Council upheld legislation restricting access to French nationality for children born to foreign parents in the overseas department of Mayotte. In Russia, the government launched a registry of migrants deemed to be living in the country illegally, restricting their ability to relocate, own property, and access financial services. The registry is estimated to cover one in nine foreign citizens, though reports indicate many have been included by mistake or without cause. 

Alongside these developments, challenges to freedom of expression and association have intensified. In Azerbaijan, authorities cracked down on protesters, detaining over 100 people and reportedly torturing those involved and those who posted comments critical of police on social media. In Hungary, Parliament approved a ban on Pride events and introduced fines for publicly supporting LGBTQIA+ events and rights. In Russia, police raided the country’s largest publishing house as part of an investigation into the alleged dissemination of ‘LGBT propaganda’. 

However, in Poland, the Supreme Court simplified the procedure for legal gender recognition by lifting family litigation requirements. In Lithuania, the Constitutional Court ruled that excluding same-sex couples from the civil code is unconstitutional and required Parliament to adopt legislation regulating the procedure for the registration of civil partnerships. At the same time, UN human rights experts warned that a Supreme Court judgment in the United Kingdom clarifying the interpretation of the Equality Act could justify exclusionary policies.

Rule of Law

Personal Integrity and Security emerged as the most impacted factor of Rule of Law in Europe during this period. Positive developments included stronger protections against gender-based violence. Norway’s Parliament criminalized sex without consent, and stronger protections for victims of domestic violence were introduced in Bosnia and Herzegovina

AustriaMontenegro and Sweden were shaken by unprecedented mass shootings. A deadly fire in a nightclub in North Macedonia killed at least 59 people and injured over 150, sparking outrage over systemic failures linked to corruption, negligence and impunity. 

The vertical and horizontal division of power within governments has also been contested. Bosnia and Herzegovina faced increasing political instability as the Republika Srpska entity rejected the authority of central government institutions following the RS president’s conviction for undermining central authority. In Montenegro, the Parliament’s termination of a Constitutional Court judge sparked a political crisis and exposed weaknesses in the separation of powers.

Participation

Protests have demonstrated remarkable citizen engagement. In Serbia, student-led protests against corruption following the deadly canopy collapse at Novi Sad train station became some of the largest in the country’s history. In Slovakia, large crowds called for Prime Minister Robert Fico’s resignation, criticizing his actions as undermining political institutions. Nationwide demonstrations in Spain, organized by tenants’ unions, neighbourhood associations and other civil society organizations, denounced a lack of affordable housing. In Türkiye, the March arrest of opposition politician Ekrem Imamoğlu sparked the largest protests the country had seen in over a decade.

However, foreign agent laws have constrained civil society. In Georgia, Parliament passed legislation requiring organizations or individuals deemed to be acting at the direction of a foreign power (including through receiving a grant) to register with the government. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the National Assembly of Republika Srpska approved legislation requiring NGOs receiving foreign funding to register and comply with strict reporting. Slovakia’s Parliament passed legislation introducing stricter requirements for NGOs to disclose their sources of funding. In Azerbaijan, leaders of civil society organizations faced charges of illegally implementing foreign-funded grant projects.

What is important to watch over the next 6 months?

Given challenges to civil society across the continent, often justified as efforts to address foreign interference, it will be important to closely monitor Hungary’s ‘transparency’ bill, approved by the Justice Committee in May. The legislation would grant the Sovereignty Protection Office powers to investigate and blacklist organizations receiving foreign funding without prior government approval. 

Additionally, litigation in Germany concerning the classification of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party as ‘right-wing extremist’ will set the boundaries of political competition. It will be important to observe the balance between forestalling threats to minorities and protecting the space for political competition and expression.

Efforts to strengthen public trust in institutions should be watched closely, including Welsh government proposals to curb the spread of misinformation by candidates and elected officials, as they seek to promote accountability while balancing freedom of expression.

Factors of Democratic Performance

Scores represent regional averages in 2024.
*Data represents an average of the entire region

Number of events reported

See the most frequently impacted categories of democratic performance over the last six months

15
57
42
20
North/Western Europe
Southern Europe
Central Europe
Eastern Europe

Most impacted factors of democracy

Political Equality
32x
Civil Liberties
18x
Predictable Enforcement
16x

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Asia and the Pacific

January - June 2025
 

The first half of 2025 in Asia and the Pacific saw six national elections, historic legal processes in South Korea, the arrest of former Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte on charges of crimes against humanity and multiple attacks on and prosecutions of journalists across the region. The question of democratic resiliencethe ability of democratic systems to adapt and recover from authoritarian declineis once again salient. Bangladesh, Indonesia and South Korea are laboring through disparate rule of law crises, and an array of countries throughout the vast region contend with declining protections of the civil liberties that may be key to keeping democracy functioning and delivering.

Emerging patterns

What are some important thematic trends that have emerged over the last 6 months?

Representation

Over the past six months, the region saw a mix of advances and declines in Representation that have impacted governance, electoral integrity and the freedom of political parties. While some countries strengthened their electoral systems – such as the Philippines implementing online voting for overseas citizens and Australia passing significant campaign finance reforms – others are grappling with increasing restrictions on political activities and a centralization of power. 

In Bangladesh, the interim government suspended its former ruling party’s registration under anti-terror laws amid a trial over the 2024 anti-government protests. On a brighter note for Free Political Parties, the Indonesian Constitutional Court lowered the presidential nomination threshold for parties, potentially paving the way for a more pluralistic electoral landscape.

There were also notable declines in Effective Parliament. For instance, in Kyrgyzstan, new legislation further concentrated authority in the presidency, while in Indonesia, the legislature granted itself excessive oversight powers over the executive branch. A similar pattern of legislative overreach in Taiwan triggered a civil society-led recall movement, which could potentially restore the ruling party’s control of the legislature in 2025, or lead to further political gridlock.  

Elections

Six national elections took place in Asia and the Pacific in the first half of 2025: five parliamentary (Singapore, Australia, Philippines, Tajikistan, Vanuatu) and one presidential (South Korea). Voter turnout averaged 83.5 per cent in the 2025 elections, up from an average of 77.9 per cent in the previous elections. Among the parliamentary elections, female representation increased from 24.9 per cent to 27.4 per cent. Australia’s federal election delivered a landslide win to incumbent Anthony Albanese’s Labour Party, as well as gains for women’s representation in parliament and cabinet. South Korea’s snap presidential election resulted in incumbent turnover, with Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party securing victory, following the former president’s abrupt declaration of martial law and consequent impeachment in 2024-2025. 

Rights

The region continued to face significant challenges to Freedom of Expression and the Press during the past six months, a trend which mirrors global declines. High profile attacks and prosecutions of journalists occurred in Indonesia, Malaysia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, and broader legal infringements on these freedoms occurred in Kyrgyzstan, Nepal, Papua New Guinea and Pakistan. Developments in Civil Liberties were not uniformly negative – Malaysia eased restrictions on public protests in February, and in May Tajikistan decriminalized ‘likes’ and ‘reposts’ online of material deemed objectionable by the state. 

Conversely, there were several positive developments in Access to Justice. These included the high-profile arrest of former Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte on charges of crimes against humanity and New Zealand’s criminalization of wage theft. Papua New Guinea saw in March the first conviction of a ‘glasman’, an individual who makes accusations of sorcery that may result in rape and murder.

Women’s and LGBTQIA+ rights were once again in flux across the region. Australia’s May federal election saw increases in women’s representation in parliament and in the cabinet, in part due to the Labor Party’s gender quota. Earlier in the year, the government also announced a major investment in women’s health, as did Thailand’s in transgender healthcare. New Zealand’s parliament narrowed the scope of the country’s landmark pay equity legislation in May, and in April Vanuatu began discussing a constitutional amendment to recognize only two sexes assigned at birth.

Rule of Law

The region has been the locus of three major Rule of Law processes: Bangladesh’s post-Hasina regulatory and legal reforms, South Korea’s legislative and judicial responses to former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed coup, and the return of the military to public life and expansion of executive authority in Indonesia under President Prabowo Subianto. South Korean parliamentarians and the general public acted swiftly to defuse the immediate crisis caused by Yoon’s declaration of martial law in December 2024, and the country’s courts followed suit in the first half of 2025 by removing obstacles to current President Lee Jae-Myung’s candidacy for the presidency and upholding Yoon’s impeachment. In this regard, South Korea’s democracy shows signs of resilience, demonstrating that the legal foundations established over the last four decades will not be easily shaken. In Bangladesh, a series of reform commissions are proposing changes to wide swathes of state institutions, buoyed by demands expressed through popular protests, including reforming the judicial appointment process. Ultimately, it remains crucial to monitor how these so-called democratic turnarounds are sustained amid ongoing reform and legislative efforts. Only then can genuine democratic resilience be established in preventing similar authoritarian threats in the future. 

Participation

This category saw the fewest coded events in the first half of 2025. The Democracy Tracker noted record high turnout in Vanuatu’s January snap election and the Philippines’ midterm elections in May. Human rights lawyers in the latter noted increased pressure on Civil Society through a nearly fourfold increase in ‘terrorism financing’ investigations against civil society organizations and human rights defenders. 

What is important to watch over the next 6 months?

Looking ahead, key developments to watch include the impeachment and corruption investigations against Vice President Sara Duterte in the Philippines in the aftermath of the midterm elections. The aftermath of Taiwan’s recall movement will influence the balance of power in the legislature, influencing Representation, Rule of Law and Participation in the latter half of 2025. 

Meanwhile, Myanmar’s military junta is planning to hold “elections” in December 2025, widely viewed as an attempt to manufacture international legitimacy and likely to entrench military rule further. Additionally, the legitimacy of transitional justice processes in Nepal, as well as Bangladesh’s progress on electoral reforms and prosecution of those involved in the July 2024 uprisings ahead of 2026 elections, will also be essential to watch, impacting Access to Justice and Representation more broadly. 

Factors of Democratic Performance

Scores represent regional averages in 2024.
*Data represents an average of the entire region

Number of events reported

See the most frequently impacted categories of democratic performance over the last six months

23
46
39
9
South Asia
Central Asia
East Asia
South-East Asia
Oceania

Most impacted factors of democracy

Civil Liberties
18x
Access to Justice
12x
Political Equality
12x

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