Election management bodies (EMBs) have always had to cope with natural hazards, but the threat posed by such phenomena has become more apparent in recent years. The number of natural hazards, including floods and cyclones, has tripled in the last four decades. This dramatic development is consistent with the predictions of climate scientists, and it is thus highly likely that elections will more frequently be affected by natural hazards in future years.
Analysis
From January 2019 to October 2024, at least 26 countries have been affected by natural hazards during national and subnational election periods. Countries include Australia, Austria, Bahamas, Belize, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Iran, Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Mexico, Mozambique, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Spain, Somalia, South Africa, Turkey, USA, and Vanuatu.
The aim of the report, Impact of Natural Hazards on Elections (which will be updated on a regular basis), is to provide an overview and share various strategies that can be used to protect elections from adverse effects. The report considers natural hazards that are likely to increase with climate change, such as floods, heatwaves and wildfires, as well as non-climate change specific disasters such as earthquakes.
Through our report including case studies, analysis, publications and podcasts, we will keep you informed and welcome your participation in our dialogue.
This report was first published on 1 September 2022 and is updated on a regular basis. Please contact us at elections@idea.int for any further information.
Case Studies
Image
|
WEATHERING THE STORM: HURRICANE SANDY AND THE 2012 US FEDERAL ELECTION Case Study, 30 September 2024 The case study focuses on Hurricane Sandy and the 2012 US federal election and covers key timelines in relation to campaigning, interagency cooperation, special voting arrangements, election day, voter turnout and reforms. This case study analyses preparedness, actions and results on the part of election officials and their election emergency policies in New Jersey and (as a secondary focus) New York, neighbouring state on the East Coast of the United States, as they faced an incoming hurricane ahead of a national election in 2012. |
THE IMPACT OF NATURAL HAZARDS ON HAITI’S 2010 PRESIDENTIAL AND LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS Case Study, 1 September 2022 The catastrophic 2010 Haiti earthquake and its subsequent Hurricane Thomas killed upwards of 250,000 civilians, leaving over 1.5 residents displaced. Due to the disaster, about 315,000 identity cards were lost, and challenges related to the distribution of new IDs and purging the voter roll from deceased voters arose. Moreover, the earthquake destroyed critical infrastructure including the headquarters of the election commission and schools used as polling stations. The earthquake also led to the fatality of many election officials which diminished the electoral management bodies capacity to organize elections. This case study demonstrates how catastrophic disasters diminish voter participation, especially when the governing bodies are harmed directly. |
|
CYCLONES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN MOZAMBIQUE Case Study, 1 September 2022 Mozambique is one of Africa’s countries most susceptible to extreme weather, as seen by the 2019 Category 4 Cyclones, Idle and Kenneth, which displaced more than 700,000 civilians. The Cyclone left more than 3,200 classrooms - where most voter registration and counting took place - destroyed. Amid working to counter terrorism in the region at the same time, the Mozambique government rescheduled the voter registration deadline with little legal guidance on how to address the situation. This case study highlights the importance of solid precedents and legal references regarding extreme environmental circumstances to guide legislators and electoral officials during extenuating conditions. |
|
WILDFIRE AND ELECTIONS IN CALIFORNIA Case Study, 1 September 2022 Between the fall of 2015 and late 2018, 104 deadly wildfires erupted in California, destroying tens of thousands of structures, displacing 250,000 civilians, and interrupting two of California’s elections. Since wildfires travel long distances, 93% of California’s Counties implemented new procedures for ballot shortages and technological failures. While this case demonstrates the disastrous influence Climate Change has over elections and foreshadows future discussions of rearranging California’s election system, it highlights the importance of contingency planning in elections to avoid disasters impeding on elections. |
|
TAMING THE TWIN HAZARDS: INDONESIA´S 2020 DIRECT LOCAL ELECTIONS Case Study, 30 November 2022 During the rainy season, Indonesia experiences elevated levels of rainfall, which leaves some areas prone to flooding. In 2020 alone, Indonesia faced 2,745 disasters, including floods, landslides, tornados, drought, earthquakes, forest fires, and volcano eruptions. With only 16% of local election locations safe from flooding and election materials like ballots and voting equipment susceptible to water damage, the election commission implemented measures to lessen the damage of flooding on elections. This case explains the importance of government cooperation with the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agencies as well as proper training for poll officials working in disaster-prone areas. |
|
MANAGING ELECTIONS DURING FLOODS: THE CASE OF VICTORIA, AUSTRALIA Case Study, 17 July 2023 During September of 2022, Victoria, Australia, underwent extreme rainfall, which led to a 96 percent above average rainfall across the state, with thousands of requests for assistance recorded during October 2022 and 34,000 homes evacuated during the same month. Despite thousands of homes being evacuated, voter registration during the 2022 Victorian Election only decreased by 2% due to the resilience of the Victorian Election Commission (VEC). Although voter participation could have decreased drastically due to flooding, the VEC ensured voters had access to different special voting arrangements such as postal voting, mobile ballot box voting, and telephone assist voting to accommodate extenuating circumstances and maintain voter participation. This case offers insight on risk management and the importance of cooperating with the emergency management sectors and implementing legal frameworks to expand special voting arrangements during unforeseen hazardous circumstances. |
|
NATURAL HAZARDS AND ELECTIONS IN INDIA: LESSONS IN ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION Case Study, February 2024 Climate change and its impacts pose clear threats to elections in India, as seen with the 2019 Cyclone in Odisha State, which forced 1.2 million people to evacuate their homes. In the following 2020 and 2022 elections, in Bihar State and Himachal Pradesh respectively, the government took vital preventative measures to ensure citizens maintained their right to vote in case of natural disaster. This case study makes note of the provisions implemented during crises, including a manual on electoral risk management. This case study explores the effects of the Indian States’ decentralized approach to disaster management and other resilience-building measures. The case also provides some insight into environmental efforts to reduce waste and carbon emissions during elections. |
|
THE IMPACT OF THE 2023 EARTHQUAKES ON TÜRKIYE'S PRESIDENTIAL AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS Case Study, March 2024 With over 50,000 fatalities and 100,000 civilians left injured, the earthquake, which took place in Türkiye on 6 February 2023, had devastating impacts on the southern provinces. In the wake of the tragedy, two opposing opinions on how to respond to the crisis emerged: one in favor of swift elections and another demanding postponement. Additionally, officials debated the practicality of holding elections following such a destructive disaster that left surviving residents without documentation. This guide exemplifies the importance of administrative authorities having planned out procedures for unforeseen disasters to avoid prolonging the administrative response to natural disasters. |
International IDEA’s analyses and publications on natural hazards and electoral processes
Articles
- What Hurricane Helene might mean for voting in the 2024 presidential elections in the states most affected (LSE USAPP 3 October 2024)
- Heatwave risk and election safety: does it make sense to hold elections in July? (Consitution Unit, 23 June 2024)
- Protecting elections in the face of natural hazards (Preventionweb.net, 20 June 2024)
- Reducing the environmental impact of elections: Lessons from the Asia-Pacific (3 June 2024)
- Managing elections after earthquakes – Challenges for Türkiye (11 May 2023)
- Quake aftermath poses questions on timing and conditions for Turkey elections (LSE, 17 February 2023)
- How hurricanes threaten U.S. elections and why more flexible voting is needed (3 November 2022)
- Wildfires, hurricanes, floods and earthquakes: How elections are impacted by natural hazards (1 September 2022)
- Parliament of Australia Joint Standing Committee on electoral matters: Inquiry on the future conduct of elections operating during times of emergency situations, submission of International IDEA (13 November 2020)
Podcast
- Peer-to-Peer: Storms, Votes, and Reforms: How Climate Change Affects Elections (16 October 2024)
- Peer-to-Peer: How natural disasters affected the 2010 elections in Haiti (10 January 2023)
- Peer-to-Peer: The impact of cyclones on Mozambique elections (22 December 2022)
- Peer-to-Peer: The Impact of wildfires on US elections (22 November 2022, recorded on 16 November 2022)
- Peer-to-Peer Trailer: The impact of natural disasters on elections (7 November 2022)
Working Findings and Recommendations
The working findings from analysis and publications on the topic of natural hazards and elections provide scope for preliminary recommendations relevant to the work of electoral management bodies, lawmakers, civil contingency/disaster agencies, political parties, civil society organizations, academia and international electoral assistance providers. These highlight the need for:
- the legal framework of elections to account for emergency situations with an emphasis on disasters (flooding, sea-level rise, hurricanes, wildfires, earthquakes, etc.) and timing of elections;
- flexibility in the legal framework of elections to allow for a variety of alternative arrangements to ensure effectiveness in the event of a declared emergency. Alternative arrangements can include the extension of special voting arrangements which can increase voters’ access to polls, especially in places that are vulnerable to the effects of disasters and severe weather events;
- EMBs and other state agencies can consider special registration arrangements for internally displaced voters. This may include temporary address changes to facilitate voting.
- EMBs and other state agencies involved in elections (such as postal services, and education facilities used as polling stations) to be considered as part of a state’s critical infrastructure;
- EMBs to adopt risk management frameworks and crisis management procedures and resilience-building measures to reduce election disruption caused by disasters;
- EMBs to strengthen their inter-agency cooperation with national and sub-national state agencies involved in elections and disaster preparedness, prevention, and mitigation;
- EMBs to have a strategic communication plan and messaging so that voters understand any procedural or location changes associated with the election as a result of the disaster.
Advocacy
Final Declaration from Parliamentary Conference on "Elections in Times of Crisis" Challenges and Opportunities (10 May 2023)
Statement by International IDEA at the Summit of the Future consultation on Emergency Platforms (17 March 2023)
Statement by International IDEA at the UN Informal Consultation on the Midterm Review of the Sendai Framework (27 February 2023)
Additional Resources
- Democracy and Climate change
- Global Overview of Covid-19 Impact on elections report
- Special Voting Arrangements
Contributors
The project is led by Erik Asplund (International IDEA), Sarah Birch (King's College, University of London), and Ferran Martinez i Coma (Griffith University)
Case study authors: Saket Ambarkhane (Independent consultant), Erik Asplund (International IDEA), Sarah Birch (King's College, University of London), Ferran Martinez i Coma (Griffith University), Jeff Fischer (Independent consultant), Madeline Harty (independent consultant), Hyowon Park (independent consultant), David Towriss (International IDEA), Yogi Setya Permana (Royal Netherlands Institute of Southeast Asian and Caribbean Studies), Domingos M. Rosario (Eduardo Mondlane University), Emre Toros (Hacettepe University)
The Impact of Natural Hazards on Elections: A Global Overview (Dashboard): Erik Asplund (International IDEA) and Hyowon Park (International IDEA)
To cite this report: International IDEA, Asplund, E. (editor), The Impact of Natural Hazards on Elections, 1 September 2022 (and updated)