The Impact of Natural Hazards on Elections

THE IMPACT OF THE 2023 WILDFIRES ON SUBNATIONAL ELECTIONS IN CANADA 

Case Study, 10 February 2025

This case study, examines the effects of natural hazards on EMBs and the administration of elections by drawing on the example of two Canadian jurisdictions. In the summer of 2023, wildfires affected much of Canada, with major cities under the haze of smoke, and towns evacuated from coast to coast. For the Canadian province of Alberta and one of the country’s territories, the Northwest Territories, wildfires occurred during the time of general (subnational) elections, posing significant challenges for their administration and access to ballots. By documenting their election experiences during the exogenous shocks, the case study outlines lessons learned for practitioners and scholars to better prepare and respond in an age where natural hazards are becoming more frequent and intense.

WEATHERING THE STORM: HURRICANE SANDY AND THE 2012 US FEDERAL ELECTION 

Case Study, 30 September 2024

The case study focuses on Hurricane Sandy and the 2012 US federal election and covers key timelines in relation to campaigning, interagency cooperation, special voting arrangements, election day, voter turnout and reforms. This case study analyses preparedness, actions and results on the part of election officials and their election emergency policies in New Jersey and (as a secondary focus) New York, neighbouring state on the East Coast of the United States, as they faced an incoming hurricane ahead of a national election in 2012. 

THE IMPACT OF NATURAL HAZARDS ON HAITI’S 2010 PRESIDENTIAL AND LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

Case Study, 1 September 2022

The catastrophic 2010 Haiti earthquake and its subsequent Hurricane Thomas killed upwards of 250,000 civilians, leaving over 1.5 residents displaced. Due to the disaster, about 315,000 identity cards were lost, and challenges related to the distribution of new IDs and purging the voter roll from deceased voters arose. Moreover, the earthquake destroyed critical infrastructure including the headquarters of the election commission and schools used as polling stations. The earthquake also led to the fatality of many election officials which diminished the electoral management bodies capacity to organize elections. This case study demonstrates how catastrophic disasters diminish voter participation, especially when the governing bodies are harmed directly.  

CYCLONES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN MOZAMBIQUE

Case Study, 1 September 2022  

Mozambique is one of Africa’s countries most susceptible to extreme weather, as seen by the 2019 Category 4 Cyclones, Idle and Kenneth, which displaced more than 700,000 civilians. The Cyclone left more than 3,200 classrooms - where most voter registration and counting took place - destroyed. Amid working to counter terrorism in the region at the same time, the Mozambique government rescheduled the voter registration deadline with little legal guidance on how to address the situation. This case study highlights the importance of solid precedents and legal references regarding extreme environmental circumstances to guide legislators and electoral officials during extenuating conditions.  

WILDFIRE AND ELECTIONS IN CALIFORNIA

Case Study, 1 September 2022

Between the fall of 2015 and late 2018, 104 deadly wildfires erupted in California, destroying tens of thousands of structures, displacing 250,000 civilians, and interrupting two of California’s elections. Since wildfires travel long distances, 93% of California’s Counties implemented new procedures for ballot shortages and technological failures. While this case demonstrates the disastrous influence Climate Change has over elections and foreshadows future discussions of rearranging California’s election system, it highlights the importance of contingency planning in elections to avoid disasters impeding on elections.  

TAMING THE TWIN HAZARDS: INDONESIA´S 2020 DIRECT LOCAL ELECTIONS 

Case Study, 30 November 2022​

During the rainy season, Indonesia experiences elevated levels of rainfall, which leaves some areas prone to flooding. In 2020 alone, Indonesia faced 2,745 disasters, including floods, landslides, tornados, drought, earthquakes, forest fires, and volcano eruptions. With only 16% of local election locations safe from flooding and election materials like ballots and voting equipment susceptible to water damage, the election commission implemented measures to lessen the damage of flooding on elections. This case explains the importance of government cooperation with the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agencies as well as proper training for poll officials working in disaster-prone areas.  

MANAGING ELECTIONS DURING FLOODS: THE CASE OF VICTORIA, AUSTRALIA

Case Study, 17 July 2023

During September of 2022, Victoria, Australia, underwent extreme rainfall, which led to a 96 percent above average rainfall across the state, with thousands of requests for assistance recorded during October 2022 and 34,000 homes evacuated during the same month. Despite thousands of homes being evacuated, voter registration during the 2022 Victorian Election only decreased by 2% due to the resilience of the Victorian Election Commission (VEC). Although voter participation could have decreased drastically due to flooding, the VEC ensured voters had access to different special voting arrangements such as postal voting, mobile ballot box voting, and telephone assist voting to accommodate extenuating circumstances and maintain voter participation. This case offers insight on risk management and the importance of cooperating with the emergency management sectors and implementing legal frameworks to expand special voting arrangements during unforeseen hazardous circumstances.  

NATURAL HAZARDS AND ELECTIONS IN INDIA: LESSONS IN ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION

Case Study, February 2024

Climate change and its impacts pose clear threats to elections in India, as seen with the 2019 Cyclone in Odisha State, which forced 1.2 million people to evacuate their homes. In the following 2020 and 2022 elections, in Bihar State and Himachal Pradesh respectively, the government took vital preventative measures to ensure citizens maintained their right to vote in case of natural disaster. This case study makes note of the provisions implemented during crises, including a manual on electoral risk management. This case study explores the effects of the Indian States’ decentralized approach to disaster management and other resilience-building measures. The case also provides some insight into environmental efforts to reduce waste and carbon emissions during elections. 

THE IMPACT OF THE 2023 EARTHQUAKES ON TÜRKIYE'S PRESIDENTIAL AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

Case Study, March 2024

With over 50,000 fatalities and 100,000 civilians left injured, the earthquake, which took place in Türkiye on 6 February 2023, had devastating impacts on the southern provinces. In the wake of the tragedy, two opposing opinions on how to respond to the crisis emerged: one in favor of swift elections and another demanding postponement. Additionally, officials debated the practicality of holding elections following such a destructive disaster that left surviving residents without documentation. This guide exemplifies the importance of administrative authorities having planned out procedures for unforeseen disasters to avoid prolonging the administrative response to natural disasters.