Trump has done to football what he has done to democracy

President Donald Trump has turned another rules-based system into an arena of suspicion, pressure and claims of hidden manipulation.

United States men's national soccer team striker Folarin Balogun was sent off after scoring in the World Cup 2026 last-32 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina. A red card normally carries an automatic one-game ban. But after Trump called FIFA President Gianni Infantino to complain, FIFA announced that the suspension would instead be deferred for a year, making Balogun eligible to face Belgium in the last 16.

Belgium won 4-1 anyway and cheekily tweeted a photo of their players celebrating with “Overturn This.” But Trump may have succeeded regardless. He has sown distrust in football’s process, upset what many believed was a rules-based system on the pitch, and helped fuel conspiracy theories about referees’ decisions to come.

UEFA, the European football governing body, called the decision to overturn the ban unprecedented, especially after public lobbying from a head of state. It warned that “when the certainty of rules is no longer guaranteed by its guardians, the integrity of the game is at stake, and the credibility of a competition is undermined.”

Replace “game” with “elections” and “competition” with “democracy”, and the Trump playbook is clear. Trump’s questioning of the result of the 2020 presidential election sowed distrust in what officials and independent experts described as a free and fair vote. It helped inspire copycat claims by other right-wing populists, including in Brazil.

Infantino—who has enjoyed a close relationship with Trump and even awarded him a peace prize—rebutted the criticism by saying FIFA’s judicial bodies acted independently and autonomously from politicians. He also said he takes calls from many heads of state without allowing them to influence policy.

But the rebuttal may miss the point. What Trump does masterfully is sow doubt. He even used the same word—“rigged"—to describe any Belgium victory without Balogun’s return to the team. For good measure, he described the Brazilian referee as “suspect”. FIFA defended the referee, but more doubt was sown.

The rights and wrongs of an issue quickly disappear into a murky maze of accusation and counter-accusation, where suspicion becomes more powerful than evidence. Even if Infantino was right, Trump has still managed to weaken trust in another institution.

Referees do not need to be corrupt for some fans to believe the match was fixed. Election officials do not need to have acted improperly for some voters to believe the result was stolen. The damage is done when enough people accept the idea that power behind the scenes can bend the rules and manipulate the outcome.

There is evidence the scandal is already impacting games. When Argentina came back from 2-0 to beat Egypt on Tuesday, it did not take long for controversial referee decisions to be linked to political influences.

Trump’s playbook is alive and well.