Brazil - General Elections, 4 and 25 October 2026

Safeguarding electoral operations in the face of El Niño 

Ahead of the October 2026 General Elections, Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) has adopted a preventive framework to mitigate the potential impact of extreme weather and hydrological events on electoral processes (TSE, 2026). On 20 August 2026, the TSE announced the creation of a National Climate Situation Room for the 2026 Elections (Sala Nacional de Situação Climática para as Eleições 2026), under TSE Ordinance No. 527/2026 (TSE, 2026). The initiative is intended to preserve the normality, security, and continuity of electoral operations by integrating climate-risk monitoring into election preparedness.  

Since Brazil’s return to democracy, no presidential election has taken place amid such an extensive combination of official climate alerts, technical bulletins, and advance contingency measures in response to a potentially strong 2026 El Niño event (Camargos, 2026). A joint bulletin issued by Brazilian meteorological and disaster-monitoring agencies indicated a probability of over 90 percent that the phenomenon would reach very strong intensity during the September–November period, which encompasses the first round on 4 October and a possible second round on 25 October (INMET, 2026). Moreover, the climate outlook makes this coordination particularly relevant because the anticipated effects are expected to vary substantially across Brazil (Haddad, 2026). Current forecasts indicate above-average rainfall in the South, alongside possible flooding, while the North and Northeast are expected to experience drier-than-average conditions. Parts of central and southeastern Brazil may likewise face rainfall deficits, while temperatures are projected to remain above average across most of the country (Leones, 2026). These geographically differentiated hazards may affect voter access and election logistics in very different ways, reinforcing the need for close monitoring. 

In this sense, the Situation Room will monitor daily weather forecasts, hydrological alerts, and hazard warnings, and combine climate data to identify critical areas and electoral sections in particularly vulnerable municipalities. It will assess threats to polling locations, electronic voting machines, the transportation of electoral materials, electricity supply, and telecommunications (UOL, 2026). To address these risks, the TSE has authorized the Situation Room to recommend contingency measures, including identifying reserve polling stations and emergency transportation routes, reinforcing alternative communication systems (including satellite communications) and providing guidance on the battery autonomy of electronic voting machines in areas affected by electricity outages (SpaceMoney, 2026). As a result, the Situation Room will produce technical bulletins, risk maps, and situation reports to inform decisions by the TSE leadership. More exceptional interventions, such as relocating polling stations or postponing voting in specific disaster-affected areas, may be considered only on a localized basis and require a decision by the competent authority in accordance with electoral law.  

The structure is coordinated by the TSE’s Directorate of Strategic Affairs and brings together electoral officials and specialized institutions, including the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA), and the National Civil Defence. Regional Electoral Courts (Tribunais Regionais Eleitorais, TREs) and other technical bodies may also participate, allowing nationally identified risks to translate into localized operational responses. The body will operate routinely during the preparatory period and intensify its activities in the weeks preceding each round, becoming operational on a continuous basis from 24 hours before voting begins until the completion of electoral activities (TSE, 2026).  

Author: Gabrielle Balestra