Victoria State Election, 26 November 2022

Floods, October-November 2022 

In October 2022, a month’s worth of rain was dropped in parts of Victoria, New South Wales (NSW) and Tasmania. Residents in these areas were under evacuation orders on 14 October 2022, due to the floods as a result of the torrential rain (Reuters 2022; ABC News 2022b). Several rivers in Victoria are at major flood levels, with some towns experiencing the highest river peaks in decades (McGuirk 2022). Floodings continued in November, with intense rainfall and thunderstorms drenching the many already overflowing rivers and flooded communities in NSW and Victoria, leading to flash floods across the states. Furthermore, severe weather including strong winds has also left thousands without power in South Australia (Davies 2022). The Bureau of Meteorology said around 100-150mm of rainfall fell over the period of 24-36 hours. The floods caused disruption on major roads, making it difficult to travel into affected states (ABC News 2022a).). 

In September 2022, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology declared that a La Niña event was underway, where the typical east-to-west equatorial winds strengthens in the Pacific, increasing the likelihood of above-average rainfall in the spring and summer (Hannam 2022). In addition to La Niña, the negative Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is believed to be the main climate driver behind the torrential rain and subsequent floodings. With a negative IOD, warm water concentrates in the eastern Indian Ocean, which leads to moisture-rich air to flow towards Australia. This negative IOD has occurred in two consecutive years for the first time since recording began in 1960. Australia has had particularly wet years in the last three years, which leads to high soil moisture, increasing the probability of floods. Furthermore, the cold winter in Victoria hindered evaporation, giving catchments little capacity to absorb additional rain. As more intense and frequent rainfall has been linked to global warming, experts believe that this flooding is most likely linked to climate change (Lu 2022).  

Impact on electoral processes 

Early voting for the Victoria State Election opened on 13 November 2022, they day before the second round of floods hit the state. Due to printing issues of the ballot papers and the wet weather, a number of early voting centres opened 3 hours later than planned (Victorian Electoral Commission 2022a). 

Changes in procedures  

For voters impacted by the floods, they were encouraged to plan and vote early by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC). The VEC has also offered a range of voting options. For those displaced/relocated due to the floods, they could vote at any early voting centre or election day voting centre in Victoria, visit Victoria’s mobile voting team at the Centre for National Resilience on 17 November, vote on Election Day at the Elmore Athenaeum Hall, the closest voting centre to the Rochester Temporary Village in Elmore. For those isolated by floodwaters, and are in one of the designated areas listed, they were eligible to vote by phone from 19 November (Victorian Electoral Commission 2022c). 

Voter turnout 

The turnout for the 2022 state election was between 87 and 88%, compared to approximately 90% in the 2018 state election (Victorian Electoral Commission 2022b; 2022d).