Iowa Caucus, 15 January 2024

Winter weather, January 2024 

Freezing temperatures and snow swept the United States from 12 to 16 January (National Weather Service 2024). Temperatures across almost every state hit below -17 degrees Celsius, with wind chill bringing several below -26 degrees (Lam 2024). These temperatures occur when the stream of air moving around the North Pole is ‘disrupted or stretched’, which pushes the cold air south (Barlow 2024). Previous notable polar vortexes have occurred in the US in 1977, 1982, 1985, 1989 and 2014 (National Weather Service n.d.b). Recent bouts of freezing weather are linked to rapid Artic warming due to climate change that may make winter temperatures more extreme (Yoon 2024); over the last 37 years the frequency of polar vortexes occurring in January–February has increased (Kretschemer et al. 2018). 

Impact on the electoral process  

The Iowa caucus is a vote to select delegates for presidential nomination for the state of Iowa and is administered by political parties. The Iowa caucus receives national attention and high importance for Republican candidates as the first primary for the Republican nomination, kicking off the process to the Republican National Convention in July. 

In contrast with other primaries, the Iowa caucus is held in person – in the evening, in various community gathering spaces where voters must physically attend. Unlike previous years, the Democratic caucus shifted their 2024 Iowa caucus to a mail-in process. This decision was made unrelated to the weather. The Republican caucus maintained its in-person process (Borenstein 2024).  

The campaigns were disrupted by the extreme temperatures. For example, all three Republican candidates cancelled several of their caucus events on 12 January due to freezing temperatures, and issues traveling through snow. Candidates pleaded with their supporters to brave the cold and bundle up on caucus day (Debusmann and Honderich 2024). 

The in-person attendance at the caucus is vital to the outcome, as ‘in some rural precincts, as few as 10 people can make a difference’ (Ta and Clayworth 2024). Prior to caucus, the temperature was forecasted in the daytime to be -19 degrees Celsius and below -37 degrees Celsius with windchill in the evening, impacting voter decision to attend (King 2024).  Officials warned that frostbite can occur within 10 minutes of outdoor exposure, which made appropriate clothing vital as Iowans would be queueing at their local caucus site, some of them for extended periods (Navarro and Rinaldi 2024). On the night of the caucus, the recorded low was –27 degrees Celsius and high was –17 degrees Celsius (National Weather Service n.d.a). 

The only procedural change made was the relocation of two caucus sites due to heating issues and parking space in the original locations (Mondeaux). 

Of the 752,000 registered Republicans in the state of Iowa, around 110,000 attended the frigid caucus, down from 186,657 attendees in 2016 and 176,400 in 2020 (Kornfield and Rodriguez 2024; Zitner 2024; Richardson 2020). Besides the sub-zero temperatures, some argue that former President Donald Trump’s pre-caucus lead for party nomination contributed to low turnout (Eller 2024).