
Indonesia
General Elections, 14 February 2024
Floods, January - February 2024
The Asian Monsoon that drives seasonal storms and floods across the Indian sub-continent and Southeast/East Asia brings upwards of 85% of the annual rainfall in the region (EOS 2020). At the end of the dry season, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BKMG) estimated that the peak rainy season would occur in January and February of 2024 (ANTARA 2023). Consequential to peak rainfall, the BKMG warned of risks for landslides and flooding in these months (Reuters 2023). Severe weather in the region is becoming more common (Jakarta Post 2024). However, stronger El Nino years, or when the Pacific Ocean temperatures rise above average, tend to bring drought to Indonesia as rainfall patterns shift (Gro Intelligence 2023; Grantham Institute n.d.). The frequency and intensity of droughts in Indonesia are expected to increase together with El Nino events following warmer global temperatures. By 2030, climate change is projected to increase the number of people affected by floods annually by 400,000 (Asian Development Bank, 2021).
Impact on electoral processes
On 14 February 2024, Indonesia held general elections that marked the world’s largest single-day election spanning three time zones and 17,000 islands. Voters had six hours to cast their ballots, yet many faced knee-high floodwaters (Reuters 2024). In Demak, 10 villages postponed voting due to water up to three meters high and displaced personnel, as stated by the head of the Demak Election Commission (Utami 2024). Other areas of north Jakarta postponed their election by 4 days due to flooding in an election warehouse which resulted in damaged election materials (Al Hamasy 2024). Within the rules of postponement written by the General Elections Commission, villages had 10 days to conduct polling.
Changes in procedures
Some polling stations opened hours later while others had to move to makeshift polling sites or move sites indoors due to the flooding. Other polling stations were pumped to expel excess water while others wrapped their ballot boxes in plastic for extra protection (AFP 2024). The DKI Jakarta Regional Disaster Management Agency mobilized over 200 personnel as Rapid Response Teams to the damaged polling stations to assist with relocation. They provided equipment such as boats and tents, with support from various agencies such as the Water Resources Agency and local administrators. The agency also coordinated with the Department of Water Resources and Department of Environmental Sanitation to ensure the function of water channels (Al Hamasy, A. I., 2024).
Voter turnout
Voter turnout was 81.78% for the 2024 election, only slightly less than the 82% turnout from the 2019 election (Statistica 2024).
AFP, ‘From remote tribal areas to flooded cities, Indonesians go to polls’, The Economic Times, 14 February 2024, <https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/from-remote-tribal-areas-to-flooded-cities-indonesians-go-to-polls/articleshow/107684133.cms?from=mdr>, accessed 27 March 2024
Al Hamasy, A., ‘Flood Damaged Logistics, 18 Polling Stations in North Jakarta Hold Supplementary Elections’, Kompas.id, 15 February 2024, <https://www.kompas.id/baca/english/2024/02/15/en-logistik-teredam-banjir-18-tps-di-jakarta-utara-akan-gelar-pemilu-susulan>, accessed 27 March 2024
ANTARA, ‘Climatology agency predicts dry season to end in late October’, 4 October 2023, <https://en.antaranews.com/news/295188/climatology-agency-predicts-dry-season-to-end-in-late-october>, accessed 27 March 2024
Asian Development Bank, Climate Risk Country Profile: Indonesia, 2021, <https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/700411/climate-risk-country-profile-indonesia.pdf> accessed 18 October 2024
Gro Intelligence, ‘Indonesia Faces Growing Risk of Wildfires and Crop Damage Due to El Niño’, 17 October 2023, <https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/indonesia-faces-growing-risk-of-wildfires-and-crop-damage-due-to-el-nino>, accessed 27 March 2024
Holbourn, P.D. C, France-Lanord, C., and Zheng, H, ‘Evolution of the Asian Monsoon’, Eos, 25 June 2020, <https://eos.org/science-updates/evolution-of-the-asian-monsoon>, accessed 27 March 2024
Imperial, ‘What is El Niño and how is it influenced by climate change?’, n.d., <https://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/publications/climate-change-faqs/what-is-el-nino/#:~:text=The%20relationship%20between%20climate%20change,to%20stronger%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20events.>, accessed 27 March 2024
Kahfi, M., ‘Quick Response to Flood Reports in January-February', Jakarta Smart City, 15 March 2024, <https://smartcity.jakarta.go.id/en/blog/cepat-tanggap-tangani-laporan-banjir-januari-februari/>, accessed 27 March 2024
Reuters, ‘Indonesia expects delayed rainy season due to El Nino’, 8 September 2023, <https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-expects-delayed-rainy-season-due-el-nino-2023-09-08/>, accessed 27 March 2024
—, ‘Indonesians vote to replace Jokowi, floods disrupt some polling’, The Business Standard, 14 February 2024, <https://www.tbsnews.net/worldbiz/politics/indonesians-vote-replace-jokowi-floods-disrupt-some-polling-792554>, accessed 27 March 2024
Statistica, ‘Participation rate of the national election in Indonesia in March 2024’, n.d., <https://www.statista.com/statistics/1452255/indonesia-voters-turnout-of-2024-national-election/>, accessed 24 March 2024
The Jakarta Post, ‘Floods, landslides hit as Indonesia enter rainy season’, Asia News Network, 5 February 2024, <https://asianews.network/floods-landslides-hit-as-indonesia-enters-rainy-season/>, accessed 27 March 2024
Utami, K., ‘Elections in 10 Villages in Demak Postponed due to Floods, 27,000 Voters Affected’, Kompas.id, 13 February 2024, <https://www.kompas.id/baca/english/2024/02/13/en-pemilu-di-10-desa-di-demak-ditunda-karena-banjir-27000-pemilih-terdampak>, accessed 27 March 2024
