Libya
Libya performs at the low level across all categories of the Global State of Democracy framework. The country’s recent history is marked by civil conflict. Over the last five years, it has experienced notable declines in Representation, Credible Elections, Elected Government and Effective Parliament. Libya’s economy has been stunted by the conflict’s impact on the oil sector, which accounted for 65 per cent of GDP before the 2011 revolt. Oil has fuelled the conflict as armed and political factions have contended to control oil production, which has suffered due to repeated oil blockades. Consequently, Libya’s oil revenues have declined and the war-battered economy is at about half of its 2010 value.
The 42-year autocratic regime of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi ended when he was ousted and killed in the Arab Spring-inspired Libya Revolt of 2011. The General National Congress (GNC) was elected to govern Libya between 2012 and 2014. However, Libya entered into another civil war in 2014 when the GNC refused to disband. The main conflict has been between two rival governments: the Government of National Accord (GNA), in Tripoli, in the west, and the House of Representatives (HoR), in Tobruk, in the east. Each government has enjoyed foreign support: the UN and western-based GNA has principally been supported by Turkey, Qatar, and Italy whereas the HoR – and its military wing, the Libyan National Army (LNA) – have been supported by Russia, Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and to a lesser degree, France and Jordan. The attempts to establish an Islamic state in Libya, dating to 2012, diminished when Ansar al-Sharia was defeated in 2017 by the LNA, led by Khalifa Haftar. In 2021, there was hope for a unified Tripoli-based administration under the UN-brokered Government of National Unity. However, interim Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah indefinitely postponed elections that were scheduled for December that year and refused to leave office. Consequently, Libya relapsed into violent clashes between Tripoli and Tobruk-aligned militia – with the latter preferring Fathi Bashagha as Prime Minister.
Libyans have experienced soaring costs of living and inflation. The frustration with the continuous conflict, poor living standards, and poverty have caused widespread protests in Tripoli and Tobruk. Libya also faces a major humanitarian crisis, which is further strained by its being a major transit country for EU-bound migrants. These migrants, as well as asylum-seekers, face uncertainty, risk violent detention by Libyan forces (who are supported by EU member states), and endure poor living conditions while awaiting passage to Europe.
Minority groups, particularly the three largest – Amazigh, Tuareg and Tebu – have been long marginalized. This can be traced to historical divisions and rivalries between communities as well as struggle over resources and wealth, exacerbated by policies of former Muammar al-Qaddafi’s regime that promoted an Arab nationalist ideology. Some Tabu and Tuareg continue to face discrimination in accessing healthcare and education, due to discriminatory regulations governing citizenship. In terms of Gender Equality, Libya has persistently performed at the low-range and continues to be among the world’s bottom 25 per cent in this regard. Insecurity and impunity, exacerbated by the proliferation of armed groups and weapons have led to an alarming level of violence against women and girls, including femicide. Women are disadvantaged by a lack of economic opportunities and underrepresented in political positions.
Libya’s ongoing political and economic in stability is a to democracy and human rights. Democracy in Libya relies on the establishment of a lasting central government with (more of) a monopoly on violence.
Monthly Event Reports
October 2023 | Unresolved Disputes Threaten Libya Election Progress
In early October, progress was made on the electoral process as the Eastern-based House of Representatives (HoR) approved modified versions of the laws governing presidential and parliamentary elections, passing them on to the High Electoral Commission for implementation. However, Mohamed Tekala, the new leader of the Tripoli-based High State Council (HSC), rejected these laws and ceased cooperation with HoR. Some HSC members argued this decision only mirrored Tekala's faction's stance, not the council's collective view. On 16 October, the UN Special Representative for Libya acknowledged some progress in the electoral process but stressed unresolved political issues. He highlighted the compulsory second presidential election round and the interconnection of presidential and parliamentary polls as potential sources of disruption. The representative also pointed out the lack of negotiations between rival factions to form a pre-election government, urging dialogue to prevent a unilateral government appointment by any party.
September 2023 | Government failures increased the number of deaths during storm-caused flooding
Libya was hit by a storm of unprecedented severity on 11 September. Climate scientists estimate that a storm of this intensity would normally affect Libya only once in every 300-600 years, but that climate change has made such extreme weather events ten times more likely. United Nations officials estimate that nearly 4,000 people were killed in the floods that followed the storm, many in the town of Derna where two dams collapsed, releasing huge amounts of water that swept people, vehicles, and infrastructure into the sea. Residents of the city (and foreign experts) blamed the government for the high death toll, with particular focus on inadequate maintenance of the dams, poor communication with residents in vulnerable areas, and inefficiencies in the delivery of aid.
March 2023 | Authorities impose severe restrictions on civil society
The Office of the Prime Minister for the Government of National Unity (GNU) and other Libyan authorities issued a series of decrees in March 2023 revoking the legal status of all local and international NGOs in the country established after 2011. The GNU is now requiring civil society organizations to establish their legal status under Law 19 of 2001, adopted during the regime of Muammar Gaddafi. That law requires all NGOs to have government approval and only permits groups that work with charity, sports, humanitarian and social issues. The decrees follow months of intensified crackdown on civil society with incidents of intimidation, detention and withholding entry visas for aid organizations. With potential Libyan elections in 2023, concerns have been raised that the decree effectively criminalizes independent election monitoring. Several national and international rights groups have condemned the move, calling on authorities to guarantee freedom for civic groups to operate. The GNU has granted temporary legality to local and international NGOs to continue working until they comply with Law 19.
September 2022 | Fear of intensified war grows amid continued power struggle in Libya
Divisions among the political institutions in Libya were deepened in September when the Tobruk-based House of Representatives replaced the President of the Supreme Court, Mohamed al-Hafi, with Abdullah Burazizah. The vote was unanimous but may have lacked a quorum. Until now, the Supreme Court had been viewed as relatively above the political rivalries that have dominated Libyan politics for the past decade. Observers have suggested that this new appointment is likely to politicize this institution and bring it under the control of the legislature, a development that risks an intensification of the conflict.
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