Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) performs in the mid-range across all Global State of Democracy (GSoD) categories of democracy, though its Rule of Law score is on the lower end of mid-range. Over the past five years, it has not experienced any significant change in its performance. A sticking point is elections, which continue to be marred by allegations of discrimination. BiH is an upper-middle-income country and was granted conditional candidate status by the European Commission in 2022. The country has struggled with economic stagnation, emigration and brain drain, corruption, and a loss of faith in government institutions. While recent years have seen some examples of popular mobilization driven by general dissatisfaction with what is widely perceived as a corrupt elite, these movements have not translated into pan- (or non-) ethnic political movements.
In a 1992 referendum, Bosnian Muslims (Bosniaks) and Croats voted overwhelmingly for secession from Yugoslavia, while Serbs predominantly boycotted the vote, based on calls from their political representatives, who preferred to remain attached to a Serb-dominated Yugoslavia. After the vote, BiH declared its independence and received international recognition. Almost immediately, fighting broke out, resulting in The Bosnian War, one of the deadliest conflicts in Europe since the Second World War. The grievances related to war atrocities -- the Srebrenica Massacre (ruled a genocide) in particular -- continue to shape the country’s politics. The U.S.-brokered Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) in 1995 put an end to the war and enshrined Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs as the country’s three constituent peoples. It created a tripartite presidency, it introduced a new administrative organization of two entities (the Federation of BiH, populated largely by Bosniaks and Croats, and the Serb-majority Republika Srpska), and it created what some call the world’s most complicated system of government. Dayton also created the Office of the High Representative, which empowers a diplomat from the international community to take binding decisions for BiH in situations of political gridlock. In general, the Republika Srpska opposes moves in the direction of accession to the EU. Over the years, it has favoured close ties with neighbouring Serbia and with Russia. Bosniaks have advocated for a more centralized state, while Croats have repeatedly called for their own administrative unit. Croats are a significantly smaller part of the population than the other two ethnic groups. Finally, constitutional discrimination against ethnic minorities of non-constituent peoples remain a challenge.
With regards to gender equality, GSoD Indices data show that BiH has performed at the mid-range for the past few decades. Legislation, policies and institutional mechanisms on gender equality and anti-discrimination are in place, yet implementation of policies is uneven. Discrimination at work, threats against women and LGBTQIA+ activists, gender-based violence and impediments to equal political participation persist.
In practice, the link between ethnicity and representation established by the DPA has led to the strengthening of ethnic political elites and the emergence of a system often characterized as an ethnocracy or described as an ethnically-based kleptocracy. While BiH is, in theory, on the path to eventual EU membership, it will be important to watch the progress of reforms. Memories of the war loom large, and many voters remain apathetic, cynical, and risk-averse as a result. Looking ahead, Free Political Parties and the Rule of Law will be key to future progress. More generally, BiH will need to find a way to cut through entrenched ethnic interests to and provide economic opportunity at home.
Monthly Event Reports
March 2024 | International overseer imposes technical changes to electoral process
On 26 March, the Office of the High Representative (OHR), an international body that oversees the 1995 peace agreement, used its “Bonn powers” to amend the law in the interests of improving electoral integrity This occurred in a context marked by the attempts from Republika Sprska’s (RS) Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) and the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) to block the legislation in December 2023. HDZ said reforms failed to resolve Croat representation, while SNSD insisted on replacing Central Election Commission members before the amendment. The amendments include the digitalisation of the electoral process, barring convicted war criminals from running for office, and enhancing campaign finance transparency to prevent voter manipulation. The OHR provided for a brief grace period for BiH parliamentarians to find a common solution before the legislation enters into force. The changes are planned to be rolled out in general elections scheduled for 2026, and as a pilot, subject to technological capacity, in local elections in October 2024.
February 2024 | Parliament passes reforms to counter terrorism and money laundering
On 16 February, Parliament adopted reforms aimed at preventing organized crime, corruption and terrorism. The law introduces additional reporting and identification requirements for cash transactions exceeding EUR 15,000 (for financial institutions, businesses and regular citizens engaged in certain financial activities). Additionally, the law requires enhanced checks for clients deemed at a risk of money laundering, financing terrorism, or spreading weapons of mass destruction according to specific conditions (such as geographic area, service, or transaction method). The law further broadens the kinds of institutions subject to anti-laundering regulations, and covers cryptocurrency service providers for the first time. It also promotes international cooperation as well as collaboration and information exchange between domestic authorities, including the establishment of a coordination body to oversee implementation of the law and fulfilment of international obligations. The law is a key step towards harmonization with EU regulations and towards opening accession negotiations with the EU, for which a decision from the European Commission is expected in March.
September 2023 | Republika Srpska’s legislature approves draft ‘foreign agent’ law
The Parliament of the Republika Srpska (RS), the Serb entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, approved in its first reading a draft law that proposes to create a special registry of NGOs that receive foreign funding. The legislation passed the first of two planned votes in Parliament on 28 September, with 48 votes in favour and 11 against. The law was proposed by RS President Milorad Dodik in March with the stated goal of “preventing the misuse of non-profit organizations,” according to the Justice Ministry. As a next step, the draft law will be open to 30 days of public debate before returning to Parliament for a final vote. The draft legislation would require NGOs with certain amounts of foreign funding to register with the government and to comply with administrative and financial reporting rules. It would also block these NGOs from participating in vaguely defined political activities, which could impact their advocacy work. The law could also make activities that seek to influence decision-making punishable offences. The legislation has been criticized by civil society organizations and international organizations, who argue it can be used to silence dissent and discourage freedom of expression.
August 2023 | Attacker livestreams murder of ex-partner, sparking protests against femicides
The European Court of Human Rights found that territorial and ethnic rules applicable in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH)’s state-level elections are discriminatory, violating the general prohibition of discrimination in the European Convention of Human Rights. BiH’s Constitution defines a power-sharing arrangement whereby the three “constituent peoples” (the Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs) are equally represented in the House of Peoples (a parliamentary chamber) and the tripartite presidency. People outside the three dominant ethnic groups are not included in these arrangements and cannot be elected to these institutions. The ruling held that elections are “undemocratic” because they entrench advantages of the main ethnic groups over others. The case was brought by Slaven Kovačević, an adviser to a member of BiH's Presidency who is not affiliated with any ethnic group, who argued he was not genuinely represented in the 2022 elections.
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