Brazil
Brazil is a mid-performing democracy that has experienced significant declines over the past five years in Clean Elections, Civil Liberties, Gender Equality and Personal Integrity and Security. These drops have been due to a number of factors, including the use of disinformation campaigns in electoral processes, attacks on freedom of expression, pervasive violence against women and ethnic minorities, and the lack of accountability for police abuse. Brazil boasts one of the world’s largest economies – driven in particular by exports of soybeans, iron ore, and petroleum, as well as raw sugar, beef, poultry, and sulfate chemical wood pulp.
Following the military dictatorship that lasted from 1964 to 1985, the early years of re-democratization were marked by hyperinflation, economic instability, social inequality, and food insecurity. While these issues were mitigated to varying degrees between 1994 and 2019, many re-emerged as a result of ongoing corruption scandals, the rise of far-right politics, the struggle to adequately respond to COVID-19 and a marked increase in political polarization. While millions of Brazilians were lifted from poverty in the early 2000s, inequality rates in the country remain amongst the highest in the region. In 2013, mass protests against increases in the cost of public transportation triggered a broader movement against the then-governing party. Compounding public discontent over the next several years were serious corruption scandals, illegal campaign financing, lack of political dialogue and the rise of anti-establishment far-right discourse. These events marked the following years and electoral processes, and they drive the climate of polarization that continues in politics to this day. In some cases, this has resulted in acts of violence in the context of elections.
Brazil is a multicultural and multi-racial country. The social dynamics between the different races that make up Brazil’s demography, which are rooted in a history of slavery and the marginalization of Afro Brazilians and Indigenous Peoples, form a point of contention and intersect with economic, social and gender inequality. Around 0.4 per cent of the Brazilian population are Indigenous Peoples, representing 305 ethnic groups, according to data from the 2010 census. It is also the South American country with the greatest number of Indigenous Peoples living in isolation. The expansion of soybean and beef production and budget cuts to oversight agencies in the past years have contributed to an acceleration of deforestation in the Amazon and negatively impacted the welfare of Indigenous communities. Another cleavage is the relevance of religiosity in the country, especially the influence of evangelical beliefs in several political parties. This has an impact on the agenda setting and definition of issues in parties, which in turn can be decisive in government coalitions.
Inequality also intersects with race. White Brazilians, who make up less than half of the population, hold almost twice as much wealth as non-whites. Three-quarters of people living below the poverty line are non-whites. Although non-whites are more than half of the population, only one quarter of Congress members are Black or pardos (“mixed”). Brazil is one of the most violent countries on the continent, and police brutality is a growing problem. Violence against women is pervasive and the rates of femicide are high.
Looking ahead, it will be important to watch the development of Free Political Parties, Elected Government and Clean Elections, especially in light of the weakened political center, growing polarization between left and right-wing parties and the increasingly frequent attacks on the credibility of the electoral system. Moreover, it will be critical to observe how rising polarization impacts not only radicalization and violence, but also political engagement of underrepresented social groups.
Monthly Event Reports
February 2024 | Police carry out operation related to 8 January “attempted coup”
On 8 February, federal police arrested four people and executed 33 search warrants, targeting allies of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The operation was authorized by Brazil’s Supreme Court as part of an inquiry into the 8 January storming of government buildings. Bolsonaro himself was requested to hand over his passport during the inquiry. So far, the investigation into 8 January had only resulted in the trial and conviction of citizens who broke into government buildings, but the current investigation targets Bolsonaro and close allies as organizers of the “attempted coup”. Weeks later, on 25 February, Bolsonaro participated in a public act in which he denied the accusations against him, with tens of thousands of protesters showing up to express their support.
December 2023 | Law that enshrines the restrictive “marco temporal” thesis is approved
Congress approved legislation that enshrines the “marco temporal” thesis, a controversial doctrine that restricts the claims that Indigenous Peoples can make to their lands, if these were not physically occupied by them in 1988. In doing so, it overrode a presidential veto by a wide majority. In September, Brazil’s Supreme Court had sided with the Indigenous Xokleng community in a case brought by Santa Catarina state, determining that the “marco temporal” thesis had no basis in the constitution. Activists worry that the entry into force of the law will make Indigenous territories susceptible to extractive activities and infrastructure works that will imperil the sustainability of their resources. They have further announced their intention to challenge the constitutionality of the law before the Supreme Court, expressing hope that the high court will maintain its previous precedent.
November 2023 | A deterioration in security leads the government to militarize ports and airports
A significant increase in violence from organized crime, particularly that related to drug-trafficking and contraband, has led President Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva to issue a decree through which thousands of military personnel will be deployed to ports and airports in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. Lula has stated these measures are temporary and will last through May; members of the military will coordinate with federal police. In the past weeks, violence in Rio has reached extraordinary levels, including 35 buses being set on fire by criminal groups, in retaliation for the killing of a crime boss by police. Although the current measure does not foresee military deployment to favelas, as Lula has stated he does not want the armed forces to patrol there, analysts have stressed that violence is increasing, with reports of training of gang members and paramilitaries taking place within these enclaves.
October 2023 | Congressional inquiry recommends that Bolsonaro face criminal charges
Former President Jair Bolsonaro and allies, including former cabinet members, were accused by a legislative committee of participating in crimes related to the 8 January 2023 riots. This congressional committee issued its report on 18 October, after nearly five months of public hearings and testimony. The report characterised the 8 January events as a premeditated coup attempt and recommended that the Attorney General charge Bolsonaro with the crimes of political violence, criminal association, abolition of the rule of law, and an attempted coup. The Congressional committee cannot itself charge the former President. A separate federal investigation into Bolsonaro’s role in the 8 January events is currently underway.
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