Mozambique
Mozambique performs at the borderline between low and mid-range in Representation, Rule of Law and Participation and at the mid-range in Rights. It is in the bottom 25 per cent of countries in the world with regard to Basic Welfare, Absence of Corruption, Participation and Civic Engagement. Over the past five years, it has suffered declines in Credible Elections and Elected Government. It has not experienced any notable advances in this time period. The economy is driven by natural resources such as coal, natural gas, and titanium, but it remains one of the poorest countries in the world.
Much of the territory that comprises modern Mozambique was once part of the civilization known as Great Zimbabwe, which engaged in agriculture and husbandry, as well as mining precious metals and trading along the Indian Ocean coasts. Beginning in the mid-16th century, Portugal gradually gained control of the area. After a decade-long war against Portuguese colonial rule, Mozambique gained independence in 1975. The Marxist liberation movement, the Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO) established itself as the ruling party and suppressed opposition. Between 1977 and 1992 there was a civil war between FRELIMO and the Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO), an anti-communist militant group (and later a political party). The peace agreement, signed in 1992, led to the first multi-party elections in 1994, but long term peace has been elusive. RENAMO dissidents led a guerrilla campaign between 2013 and 2021.
The consequences of past and current conflicts still pose significant challenges to the consolidation of democracy in Mozambique. The main challenge is corruption, exemplified by the Dividas Ocultas (Hidden Debt) scandal. The government has taken some steps to address corruption, but the effectiveness of these efforts has been limited by a lack of political will and weak implementation. Pertinently, elections in Mozambique have been flawed, resulting in a lack of transparency and accountability in the political system. There have been reports of fraud, harassment of opposition candidates, and media bias as contributing factors. Despite some progress, significant challenges remain in terms of ensuring free and fair elections in the country, with limited government commitment to electoral reform and ongoing conflict as major obstacles.
The main politically relevant social cleavage at present is geographically defined between the politically dominant south of the country and the most populous north. This longer-standing division has contributed to a violent conflict between the central government and Islamist militants in the northern state of Cabo Delgado in recent years. The insurgency has caused displacement and destabilization in the region, and the Mozambican government has responded with a military crackdown.
Mozambique has seen some progress on gender equality in recent years, notably in women’s parliamentary representation, land ownership and education. Nevertheless, gender inequality remains acute, challenged by widespread violence against women and inequalities in reproductive health, access to education, and economic activity. Poverty, inequality, low literacy rates and high HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria rates are persistent, and made worse by poor access to healthcare.
Looking ahead, it will be important to observe the government’s anti-corruption efforts and any action on electoral reform, both of which could impact the country’s performance in Representation and Rule of Law. As conflict goes on between the government and Al-Shabaab and tensions rise between FRELIMO and RENAMO, it will also be important to watch how Civil Liberties may be impacted.
Monthly Event Reports
March 2024 | New insurgent violence triggers mass displacement in Cabo Delgado
In early March, the UN Refugee Agency reported that over 100,000 people in Cabo Delgado Province had been displaced since February 2024, following a fresh wave of insurgent violence. The violence is part of an ongoing insurgency in Cabo Delgado, which began in 2017 and has seen militants target the state and civilians, although attacks were relatively limited in 2023. The attacks in February and early March were reported to have involved the beheading and abduction of civilians and the destruction of residential areas and community facilities, including schools, churches, and health centres. Ninety per cent of those displaced are women, people with disabilities and the elderly. According to analysts, both the attacks and the scale of the displacement highlight the weakness of security forces.
October 2023 | Opposition parties allege fraud in local elections as Constitutional Council considers annulling some results
Elections for the 65 municipal governments across Mozambique took place on 11 October. According to the official results from the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) the ruling FRELIMO party won control of 64 of the 65 municipal governments. The main opposition party Mozambican National Resistance (Resistência Nacional Moçambicana, RENAMO) did not win the majority of the votes in any municipality, losing control of 8 municipalities they previously held. RENAMO has alleged massive fraud and filed a number of appeals with district courts and most of those cases now rest in the hands of the Constitutional Council, which is the body in charge of deciding electoral litigation in last instance as well as validating the final results. Renamo also called on its supporters to join demonstrations against the electoral results in some municipalities, especially in the capital city, Maputo, where Renamo alleges to have won. Police have responded to some demonstrations with force, using tear gas, firing automatic weapons into the air, and arresting dozens of people. At least two people are reported to have been killed. Civil society groups have suggested that there is evidence that votes were changed to benefit FRELIMO in several municipalities. On 28 November the Constitutional Council certified the electoral results in almost all municipalities, but mandated new electoral processes in four municipalities.
March 2023 | Peaceful march in memory of deceased musician repressed
One of Mozambique’s most popular politically active musicians died at home from medical complications on 9 March. Edson da Luz, known professionally as Azagaia, frequently criticized the government in his lyrics, and had a wide following. Peaceful marches in his memory were held in several cities on 18 March. In Maputo, police prevented the marchers from continuing on a planned route that would have passed the presidential residence. They then dispersed the marchers using tear gas and rubber bullets. Police subsequently arrested seven of the marchers and were reported to have threatened others.
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