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Published: 10/05/2023
Where and why—and how—does the Turkish diaspora vote?
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) face a significant challenge in the Turkish national elections on 14 May. With opposition parties in Turkey more united than they’ve been in a decade and the country still reeling from the aftermath of February’s catastrophic earthquakes, Erdoğan is at distinct risk of losing the presidency despite a decade of consolidating power.
One voting bloc that could make the difference for Erdoğan and the AKP is the diaspora population, which constitutes five per cent of Turkey’s electorate. Turkish expatriates around the world played a key role in the 2014 and 2018 presidential and parliamentary elections, and their votes helped secure approval of the expansion of presidential powers in a critical 2017 constitutional referendum, according to some analysts.
The graph below shows that in the 2018 parliamentary elections, in most Western European countries, the greatest share of the Turkish expat electorate voted for the AKP.
While other parties also court the overseas vote, President Erdoğan has a history of close engagement with the Turkish diaspora, whose total population comprises more than 6.5 million people, with the vast majority living in Western Europe. For the better part of a decade, Erdoğan and the AKP have prioritised the maintenance of close ties with the Turkish diaspora, delivering speeches to rallies of Turkish expats from Cologne to Dusseldorf, as well as relying on sister associations abroad to imitate campaign strategies used in Turkey. As well as serving electoral purposes, these strategies have encouraged Turkish expats to “assimilate but not integrate” and to prioritise their Turkish identity.
Turkey began allowing expat citizens to vote in national elections in 1995. The process of voting from abroad has gradually changed over time; a fundamental shift occurred in May 2012, when an amendment to the electoral law allowed for expats to vote in their country of residence. The new amendment was implemented in Turkey’s 2014 presidential elections, which then-Prime Minister Erdoğan won. The new provisions led to an increase in voter turnout among the Turkish diaspora electorate in 2014, which then rose sharply in the 2015 general election.
Other factors that may influence Turkish expat voting include:
Identity: Erdoğan has been keen to foster a sense of connection to Turkish identity, which has brought many benefits, including close community and strong cultural links between Turks abroad, while also allowing the mechanisms of state influence to permeate borders. A 2020 survey of Turkish citizens in Austria, France, Germany and the Netherlands found that Turkish language media dominates the diaspora’s information ecosystem, particularly among older and less highly educated demographics. Erdoğan’s influence over the information space was further consolidated by the October 2022 “disinformation” law, prohibiting the spread of information that causes fear or panic among the public and can be the pretext for jailing journalists and social media users.
Representation: Limited political representation in the country of residence, particularly for those lacking citizenship in the host country, can lead expats to engage in the politics of their home countries to find means of participation. A correlation has been shown between Turkish expats who are more engaged in Turkish national politics and lower levels of attachment to their host state.
Religion and ethnicity: These factors can also be important predictors of voting behaviour. Erdoğan’s rhetoric has long emphasised Islamophobia in European countries. This tactic has proven successful in attracting diaspora votes from Muslim conservatives in previous elections, especially as members of the diaspora face discrimination and racism in their host countries, including in the labour market and in finding housing. At the same time, the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) has given indirect support to opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, which will likely speak to the sizeable Kurdish population abroad.
Turkey is not an isolated case; there are other examples from around the world of diaspora voting being conservatively skewed, including in Hungary and Pakistan. However, the ruling coalition may face an uphill battle in Sunday’s vote, as a united opposition, a much criticised earthquake response, and an ongoing economic crisis make the race exceedingly close as Election Day approaches.
Democracy Notes
Published: 25/11/2022
Why paying women for being women is good for everyone
Imagine a world in which governments around the world commit to offering all their girls and women some form of financial credit, every year from birth through the end of their lives. In this world, states take a first step toward rebuilding political, economic and social structures that systematically marginalize women and girls. There are multiple scenarios through which such a programme could work, varying, for example, by the age at which the fund is accessible, who else could (or could not) access it, and the guidelines that determine how it can be spent.
No matter what, such a programme has the potential to strengthen and enrich multiple measures of democracy .
Consider first how it could help overall economic growth for everyone. Research shows that investments in women tend to have ripple effects, because women are more likely to channel their incomes back into their families and communities. They could use the money to pay down debt, start a business and increase purchasing power, thereby benefiting everyone. It could also help mitigate the effects of the extant gender pay gap; in September, the International Labour Organization reported that women are paid about 20 per cent less than men.
Access to special funding could also help free women from violence. The WHO estimates that 30 per cent of women worldwide have been subjected to physical and/or sexual violence, and research shows that women who suffer domestic abuse are also often victims of economic abuse. Without financial independence, they may be forced to return to abusive relationships. Independent access to money could thus be lifesaving for a significant portion of the population.
In all regions of the world, women face higher rates of poverty than men. This gap is due to longstanding problems like the disproportionate number of women who work in the informal economy, often without labour protections and benefits. Women also work longer workdays (for less pay). Some of their labour also involves unpaid care work. An economic stimulus for women would help mitigate this inequality, akin to how the “child tax credit” in the US lifted 3.7 million children out of poverty.
A similar idea is the implementation of universal basic income (UBI) to address inequality. UBI has multiple benefits, but it does not single women out and therefore is not able to acknowledge the unique violations women have suffered and continue to endure.
Theoretically, the budgetary impacts of levelling the economic field for women would impact the power of long-established, wealthy interest groups, who may then be incentivized to support stronger and more effective action to address gender inequality. Additionally, given the intersectional nature of women’s marginalization, this benefit would also positively impact minority groups.
Critically, it could transform gender inequality from being a “women’s issue” to being everyone’s concern.
At the very least, more people would be talking about it. Hopefully, though, more people would be doing something about it.
Democracy Notes
Published: 24/11/2022
Democratic Accountability | Gender Equality and Inclusion in Democracy | The Global State of Democracy
Explainer: What is ‘sportswashing’, and how does it threaten democracy?
We are now five days into one of the most controversial World Cups in footballing history. The controversy lies not in the football that has been played but the way in which the tournament is being used by its host, Qatar, a country with a limited footballing pedigree and a troubling human rights record. The starkness of this case makes it a useful context against which to explore the relationship between sportswashing and democracy.
What is sportswashing?
Whilst there is no single authoritative definition of sportswashing, there is broad consensus on its core elements: it is a phenomenon in which (1) sports are used (2) by a state or non-state actor (3) to launder the actor’s reputation. The manner in which sports are exploited in this way is theoretically unlimited, but the most common include: hosting sporting events and owning or sponsoring sports teams and competitions. While the term has traditionally been applied to a narrow range of authoritarian state actors outside of the West, neither geography nor regime-type form part of most definitions.
Has sport ever strengthened democracy?
The capacity of sports to engage people’s passions, to generate attention and to bridge cultural and geographic divides, means that it can be a powerful tool for those seeking to promote policy or social change. Over the past two decades, the United Nations and international development agencies have had success in using sports programming to empower women and girls, fight discrimination and build peace. Sport has also played an important role in national reconciliation efforts - President Nelson Mandela’s embrace of South Africa’s national rugby team during the World Cup of 1995, then a symbol of the newly fallen apartheid state, is regarded by many as an outstanding example of this. Indeed, sports governing bodies, such as the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), can leverage their status and high-profile events to promote human rights. One success story was the IOC’s creation of a Refugee Olympic Team in 2015, which has provided an important platform for refugees and refugee issues. However, the overall track record of these efforts so far is mixed and FIFA’s recent claims that the upcoming World Cup spotlight has prompted welfare and labour reforms in Qatar have been found to be largely overblown.
Can sportswashing damage democracy?
As a form of reputation laundering, sportswashing works to enhance the legitimacy of wrongdoers and shield them from the negative consequences of their conduct. In so doing, it can embolden a sportswasher to commit further wrongdoings and help perpetuate weak governance. Of course, as the build-up to the World Cup in Qatar has illustrated, high profile sportswashing often attracts a great deal of critical attention, which raises reasonable questions about the extent of the danger that it presents. However, history suggests that such criticism tends to subside once the sport is underway - although at this early stage, it appears the World Cup in Qatar may buck this trend. Additionally, the existence of criticism does not in and of itself mean that sportswashing is not working – what sportswashers seek is a net reputational gain. In achieving this they can often rely on the support of powerful voices from within sports governing bodies, as was amply demonstrated in the speech given recently by FIFA’s President Gianni Infantino, in which he attacked Qatar’s critics and played down their rights concerns.
It is important to note too that it is not only the democratic performance of the sportswasher’s state that this phenomenon threatens. Recent research on the English cities of Manchester and Newcastle documents how their local democratic institutions have been weakened by the growing influence of the controversial Gulf investment funds that own their football clubs. It details how the halo effect that the owners have achieved in bringing success to these cherished clubs has been sufficiently powerful to deter criticism of their human rights record from the local press and politicians, who fear displeasing fans and advertisers.
What can fans do about sportswashing?
The immense size of the sports industry and the power of the individuals involved in sportswashing can leave the average fan feeling impotent. However, scholars have recently argued that fan and athlete activism have an important role to play in resisting the phenomenon. They explain that sportswashing’s potency lies in its capacity to use the strong emotions and identities associated with sport to distract from or minimise the sportswasher’s wrongdoings, and that the strategy rests on them being able to separate these wrongdoings from the sports event or team being used for this purpose. When fans and athletes draw attention to abuses, particularly from within the emotionally charged atmosphere of a stadium, they undermine this separation and limit the event’s ability to distract. Perhaps, therefore, as the World Cup progresses, we need to recognise our agency and defy FIFA’s plea to “focus on the football” by continuing our conversations about the plight of Qatar’s migrant labourers and it’s LGBTQIA+ community and by lending our support to the footballers who decide to take action.
Democracy Notes
Published: 23/11/2022
Explainer: Social Contracts
International IDEA’s upcoming Global State of Democracy 2022 report focuses on the role of social contracts in revitalizing democratic institutions. But what is a social contract and why is it important for democracy?
What is a social contract?
A social contract is an implicit agreement between the people and their government about what each side provides to the other. The terms of the agreement can vary widely. While notions of the social contract have historically tended to focus on things like security, employment opportunities and some form of social welfare to help address people’s needs over the course of their lives, social contracts can also include agreements on how communal relations are managed, women’s rights, and many other issues. In return for these rights, people pay taxes and consent to the authority of the state. Arguably, the government’s public legitimacy is rooted in the terms of the social contract.
Certain terms of the social contract are implicit and difficult to definitively codify; they may be understood as social mores in a given society. In many cases, though, the agreements are given effect through constitutions and laws. For example, Canadians benefit from universal healthcare; their taxes ensure that they do not have to pay out-of-pocket for most healthcare services. In Costa Rica, the government made a conscious decision to spend heavily on education and healthcare instead of on the military.
A long line of scholars and experts have studied social contracts, including Jean-Jacques Rousseau, Thomas Hobbes, Immanuel Kant and John Locke. Beatrice Webb is also credited with advancing social contract theory. Some experts have traced the concept as far back as ancient Greece in the 5th century BC. In more recent times, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and LSE Director Minouche Shafik have shone a new spotlight on the issue.
What does a social contract have to do with democracy?
If we think of democracy as public control over decision-makers and decision-making and equality in the exercise of that control, it follows that social contracts are at the heart of democracy. Social contracts define the issues that decision-makers must work on, and they stipulate how people can hold those decision-makers accountable for upholding (or not) their ends of the deal. If people feel that the terms of the contract are not fair or are not being respected by the government, the latter risks losing legitimacy.
Democracies are arguably better placed to keep social contracts updated, largely by virtue of the mechanisms in place to promote responsiveness and accountability. In addition to the fact that leaders can be voted out of office for failing to effectively deliver for their constituents, protests, petitions, and other avenues for communication allow people to let their leaders know what they must do to retain legitimacy.
Why do we need to update social contracts?
First, people’s needs are changing in response to a quickly evolving context. In addition to the myriad ways in which digitalization and the internet have impacted the way we live our daily lives, there are new expectations about more mobile lifestyles and things like remote working arrangements. People also want more responsive action to address the effects of climate change, the renewed threat of nuclear war and – more recently – a global cost of living crisis. Second, people may change their minds over time. The rise of more right-wing governments in Sweden and Italy suggest, for example, that publics may have more restrictive views than before about issues like immigration, especially as longstanding economic grievances remain unaddressed. In Indonesia, there is also increasing support for conservativism. Third, social contracts require renegotiation when governments fail to deliver as promised. When Sri Lanka’s Rajapaksa government defaulted on its debt, leaving the public without basic supplies, the public took to the streets and forced the president to resign. Subsequent discussion has widened to demand an overhaul of the social contract.
What are some examples of social contract renewal?
There are several contemporary examples of the renewal of social contracts. Around the world, youth are demanding an increased say in politics. In Belgium, for instance, the government lowered the voting age from 18 to 16 for all EU citizens living in the country who wish to cast ballots in the European Parliament elections, held every five years. The change was a direct response to the Conference for the Future of Europe, which included innovative citizens’ panels, empowered to make recommendations. In 2019, Malaysia also lowered the voting age from 21 to 18, partly in response to a youth-led campaign on this issue.
Another example can be seen via the multiple examples of a push for stronger reproductive rights around the world. Examples from Finland, India, Sierra Leone, Colombia, and Malta – just to name a few - demonstrate how women (and men) expect their governments to do more to protect women’s autonomy over their own bodies.
A final example noted here is in Chile, the site of one of the most inclusive constitutional drafting processes in the world. Although the text failed a public referendum, President Boric announced his support for a continuation of the process, something that 74 percent of Chileans also support.
What happens when social contracts are not renewed?
If people’s expressed needs are not addressed over a significant amount of time, it can risk the government legitimacy. A particularly striking example is in The Gambia, where Yahya Jammeh, who had ruled as president for 22 years, was defeated by Adama Barrow in a stunning 2016 victory. The new government has promised a raft of reforms, many of which promise to address people’s longstanding, unresolved grievances from the Jammeh era. People’s ability to seek justice for what happened in the past will be key to Barrow’s continued legitimacy and his government’s focus on these issues is a key example of how critical it is to be aware of the need to regularly renew social contracts.