What impact will the recession have on democracy? One instinctive response may be: well, the economic boom did not have a uniformly positive impact. High prices of oil and gas have fuelled autocratic and/or populist tendencies in many countries and regions. High-growth but non-democratic models of governance have been held up as providing alternatives to the traditional notion that democracy and development go hand in hand. High, not to say excessive, self-confidence of some leading democracies was projected in counterproductive policies and actions in the name of democracy promotion.
Lower commodity prices, lower growth and lower self-confidence now cut across democracies and non-democracies alike. A cloud of gloom hangs low as political leaders desperately search for the shortest and safest way out of the recession, while experts continue to forecast that things will get even worse before they get better.
What hopes can we hold for democratic opening, consolidation and strengthening (and international efforts in support of democracy) in this worrisome environment?
Firstly, it can be noted that the state is back in fashion in many countries where its role has receded in past decades. Opinions will differ whether this means more or less democracy. What is clear though, is that the dramatic state interventions in recent months have significantly strengthened the executive branch of government. Decisions which in normal situations would require lengthy deliberations by parliaments, have been made at higher speed and less consultation than is normal in representative democracy. Given the urgency of the crisis this is understandable, but nevertheless a shift has taken place in power balance between the executive and the legislature in many countries.
Secondly, people affected are reacting as millions are losing their jobs across the globe. In many countries calls for protectionist measures are difficult for politicians to resist. In the UK, workers have staged demonstrations against foreign companies and workers, leading to fears that xenophobic nationalism will be one fallout of the crisis. In China, people are voicing their anger on the streets and in cyberspace – in a country which saw tens of thousands of popular local protests even when the economy was peaking. Will grievances mutate from social to political? What will be the response of the government? Will there be a breakthrough towards democracy as we all hope, or a new Tiananmen? And if the former prevails, will the West be able to recognize the signs of a new opening which may well take a different path than the evolution of democracy in the West? Protests have been seen in Russia too, inviting the question: will countries with well-functioning democratic institutions and processes prove more stable and resilient because people have other channels than the streets for voicing their concern?
We have seen recent and positive examples of democracy in peaceful action in two major electoral processes in two poverty-stricken countries, Ghana and Bangladesh. Both carried out free and fair elections resulting in a peaceful change of government. Such examples are heartening as they clearly testify against the fatality of political regression following economic hardship. As argued by a number of scholars at a Democracy Round table hosted by International IDEA in New Delhi, the relationship between democracy and development is complex but not necessarily causal.
Hence, there is no fatality. And the recession should not overshadow positive changes in the global landscape:
The new US president and his administration made strong pledges to multilateralism and addressing common problems with others. If we saw the unilateralism and the aggressiveness of the previous US administration as making life easier for authoritarian leaders all over the world, we have similar reasons to hope that the new "listening and working together" style may do the opposite: weaken the hands of authoritarian "patriots" who are always happy to offer national independence as a substitute to democracy.
The European Union, on its part, has built its image of "soft power" and has exercised a clear and politically much less controversial influence on democracy-building worldwide. It has done so through its enlargement and neighbourhood policies, its development assistance, its political dialogue with a number of countries and, last but not least, through its own example of permanent debate and consensus-building among its constituent countries. The EU emanates an understanding of democracy as a system not only based on some universally shared principles, but also respectful of diversity and delivering welfare to its citizens. Thus, the EU has managed to overcome to a significant extent the heavy legacy of colonialism and to be seen as something more than the sum of its 27 entities. Yet, the EU still seems to have an underestimated political capital. Can it still do better? And will the recession affect its important "acquis communautaires" in the area of democracy-support?
International IDEA has launched an initiative to promote a more coherent, effective and partnership-oriented democracy-support policy by the EU. IDEA’s "EU Project" presented and discussed in this newsletter aims at providing the EU – not least through the upcoming Swedish Presidency, with an indispensible tool in this endeavour: a clearly documented feedback from the global South. Through a series of consultations to be held with regional and national actors in Europe, Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Arab World, Europe’s key partners will say how they perceive EU’s efforts in the area of democracy-building. We hope that this endeavour will help the EU build its own narrative, in overcoming a perception that sees it mainly as a trade actor, using sometimes double standards when different agendas compete, talking a lot, but not walking the talk. The project should also help move the EU agenda forward in a way that takes the current global economic challenges as an opportunity rather than a threat.
Meeting the challenges of recession requires farsighted leadership and political courage. The positive experience of the EU and the power of its example, the new political landscape shaped by the change in the US administration, the clear commitments undertaken by donor countries jointly with their partners from the global South - as enshrined in the Accra Agenda for Action - should all be used as tools to counteract the effects of the crisis and resist the temptation of easy unilateral solutions that may be politically rewarding on the short run, but may carry immense political risks for long term development and democracy.
Vidar Helgesen
Secretary-General, International IDEA
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